US Stock Market Report
Hotcoin TradFi Daily Asset Report (September 29, 2026)
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Author kim
Major U.S. stock indexes retreated, with the S&P 500 down 0.77%, the Nasdaq down 0.92%, and the VIX rising to 16.07. Today’s focus has shifted from whether the rebound can continue to employment data and interest-rate pressures: tonight’s JOLTS job openings data and comments from Federal Reserve officials may provide the market with new clues for assessment.
U.S. Stock Market Overview: Major Indexes Decline as Expected Volatility Rebounds
On September 28, the S&P 500 closed at 7,683.69, the Dow at 51,481.51, and the Nasdaq at 26,820.38. The Russell 2000 also retreated, indicating that this adjustment is not concentrated solely in technology-heavy stocks.
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Indicator
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September 28 Close
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Change from Previous Close
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|---|---|---|
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S&P 500 Index
|
7,683.69
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−0.77%
|
|
Dow Jones Industrial Average
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51,481.51
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−0.67%
|
|
Nasdaq Composite Index
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26,820.38
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−0.92%
|
|
Russell 2000 Index
|
2,817.91
|
−0.69%
|
|
VIX Volatility Index
|
16.07
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+8.07%
|
The VIX rose from 14.87 to 16.07, an increase of 1.20 points. It reflects expected volatility implied by S&P 500 options, not the probability of a stock-market decline. This rebound indicates that the market has raised its pricing of volatility, but this reading alone is not enough to conclude that the market has entered a state of panic.
Hotcoin Observation:Friday’s rebound failed to continue on Monday, reminding us to distinguish a one-day recovery from a sustained trend. Today, it is more important to watch whether the indexes can stabilize and whether the rebound in volatility continues to spread to more assets.
Market Focus: Why Do Bond Yields Continue to Affect Stocks?
During the previous trading session, U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise, becoming an important backdrop for stock valuations. Uncertainty surrounding energy prices and supply prospects has also kept the market focused on cost and inflation pressures.
Stock prices depend not only on how much companies can earn, but also on how much investors are willing to pay for future profits. When interest rates rise, the present value of future cash flows may decline; the costs of new borrowing, refinancing, and expansion may also increase.
Therefore, even positive news from individual companies may not be enough to reverse pressure on the broader market. Corporate operations and macroeconomic valuation are two different lines of evidence and need to be tracked separately.
Our View:If tonight’s employment data changes the market’s view of economic resilience and the policy path, bonds and stocks may react at the same time. However, “strong data” does not necessarily mean “higher stock prices”: it could support earnings expectations, but it could also reinforce expectations that high interest rates will remain in place for longer. We should observe which of these two effects the market gives greater weight to.
Hotcoin TradFi Key Asset Volatility: Five Sample Assets Post Notable Declines
As of 14:47:24 Beijing time, INTWB/USDT was down 5.76% over 24 hours, while ARMB/USDT fell 4.92%. The following assets were selected based on the absolute value of their 24-hour percentage changes among valid samples, while retaining the actual direction of change.
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Spot Trading Pair
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Latest Price (USDT)
|
24-Hour Change
|
|---|---|---|
|
INTWB/USDT
|
29.12
|
−5.76%
|
|
ARMB/USDT
|
285.53
|
−4.92%
|
|
CRDOB/USDT
|
192.67
|
−4.82%
|
|
BEB/USDT
|
265.41
|
−4.78%
|
|
QCOMB/USDT
|
188.72
|
−4.73%
|
This issue covers 71 spot trading pairs in enabled status, classified as U.S. stocks, and quoted in USDT. After excluding one sample that failed the quote-timeliness check, the selection was made from 70 valid samples. Perpetual contracts and other categories are not covered, so this does not represent volatility rankings across the entire platform. The table shows the platform products’ rolling 24-hour performance, not the corresponding underlying stocks’ closing returns on September 28.
Hotcoin observation:The larger moves this time were concentrated on the downside, but the five samples cannot represent all assets. Tonight, continue to watch whether these products can stabilize and how platform prices connect with new information from the underlying market after the official U.S. stock market open. Similar product codes do not eliminate the need to distinguish between product structures and return mechanisms.
Institutional view: Index volatility does not equal individual-stock volatility
Cboe’s Mandy Xu:In a volatility commentary published on September 28 reviewing the previous week, she noted that volatility in the interest-rate market had diverged from volatility in stock indexes; at the same time, volatility in individual stocks had risen. As the third-quarter earnings season approaches, she believes that individual-stock volatility may increase further relative to index volatility.
Our interpretation:The value of this view lies in distinguishing between the “market average” and “specific assets.” Even when index volatility is low, differences in companies’ performance, financing needs, and valuations may create significant divergence. The commentary describes conditions from the previous week; the VIX had already rebounded by Monday of this week, so the historical state described in the report should not be treated as a fact that remains unchanged today.
Today’s major-events calendar: JOLTS and remarks on the economic outlook
September 29 is Tuesday, and U.S. stock markets will trade normally. The following are confirmed key items, not a complete calendar for the day; as of this issue’s snapshot, none had yet occurred. Beijing Time is 12 hours ahead of ET.
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Eastern Time (ET)
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Beijing Time
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Event
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What to watch
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|---|---|---|---|
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September 29, 10:00
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September 29, 22:00
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U.S. August JOLTS job openings and labor turnover survey
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Job openings, hiring, separations, and revisions to previous data
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September 29, 11:00
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September 29, 23:00
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Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman delivers prerecorded opening remarks
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Community-bank cybersecurity issues; no assumptions about interest-rate signals
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|
September 29, 12:40
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September 30, 00:40
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Federal Reserve Governor Barr speaks on the economic outlook
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Growth, employment, inflation, and financing-condition assessments
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|
September 29, 15:00
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September 30, 03:00
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Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks on payments
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Payment-system-related content, distinct from an interest-rate decision
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When reading JOLTS, one should not look only at the total number of job openings. Components such as hires and quits can help assess labor-market turnover, while revised figures may also change the trend. JOLTS differs from the Nonfarm Payrolls report in its survey population and statistical content, so changes in job openings should not be directly treated as the number of new jobs added.
Tomorrow’s preview:At 08:30 ET on September 30, or 20:30 Beijing time, the third estimate of second-quarter GDP and the August personal income and spending data will be released; the latter includes the PCE price index. Today, we can review market expectations in advance, but should not present data that have not yet been released as known results.
Hotcoin’s focus today: Watch employment first, then see how the market prices it
1. Observe the bond market’s reaction to the data.After the JOLTS release, whether yields rise or fall can help us understand whether the market is focusing more on economic resilience or slowing growth, rather than inferring stock-price movements solely from the direction of the data.
2. Observe whether indices and individual stocks continue to diverge.If the indices stabilize while more assets continue to retreat, the recovery may not yet have broadened. If more sectors improve in sync, the stabilization signal will have greater breadth.
3. Observe subsequent trading activity and prices of products on the platform.The rolling 24-hour percentage change records past movements and cannot replace judgment about new information. When viewing related products through Hotcoin TradFi, we will continue to compare platform quotes separately with the official trading hours of the underlying markets.
Today’s focus is not simply to determine whether prices will rebound after falling, but whether employment information can change interest-rate expectations and how that change will be transmitted across different assets. We will continue to monitor the differences between the data, institutional assessments, and actual price reactions.
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