US Stock Market Report
Daily Cryptocurrency Market Report – September 28
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Author kim
U.S. stocks entered the new week carrying Friday’s rebound, with the Dow rising 0.93% and the VIX falling to 14.87. However, gains in small-cap stocks were limited, and platform products continued to diverge. Today, we are watching whether the rebound can broaden, remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and market moves ahead of this week’s inflation and growth data releases.
U.S. Stock Market Overview: Major Indexes Rebound, but Gains Are Uneven
On Friday, the S&P 500 closed at 7,743.41, up 0.51%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 51,828.62, up 0.93%; and the Nasdaq rose 0.48%. The Russell 2000 rose just 0.07%, indicating that small-cap stocks did not experience a recovery of equal strength.
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Indicator
|
September 25 Close
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Change from Previous Close
|
|---|---|---|
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S&P 500 Index
|
7,743.41
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+0.51%
|
|
Dow Jones Industrial Average
|
51,828.62
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+0.93%
|
|
Nasdaq Composite Index
|
27,068.72
|
+0.48%
|
|
Russell 2000 Index
|
2,837.55
|
+0.07%
|
|
VIX Volatility Index
|
14.87
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−5.11%
|
The VIX fell from 15.67 on the previous trading day to 14.87, reflecting a decline in expected volatility implied by S&P 500 options. This is a sign of improved market sentiment, but it is not a guarantee of future gains or losses, nor does it represent the volatility level of every individual stock or platform product.
Hotcoin Observation:What matters more today is not whether “Friday ended higher,” but whether buying in the new week can extend to a broader range of assets. If the major indexes continue to strengthen while small-cap stocks and more sectors fail to follow, the breadth of the rebound will still need to be validated.
Market Focus: Easing Oil Prices Relieve Pressure, While Rates Remain a Key Variable
Oil prices declined on Friday, providing a relatively favorable backdrop for U.S. stocks, while Treasury yields also eased from their intraday highs. In the new week, energy costs and interest-rate levels remain worth monitoring together.
Lower oil prices may ease some cost pressures on transportation, manufacturing, and consumer companies, but they do not mean that overall inflation has been resolved. Companies still face labor, financing, and other input costs, and it takes time for price changes to pass through to profits.
Interest rates affect the other side of the equation: the rate at which future profits should be valued and the cost companies must pay to obtain funding. Even if business expectations improve, growth-oriented and financing-sensitive assets may still face varying degrees of pressure if financing conditions remain tight.
Our View:If oil prices and bond yields stabilize at the same time, the market may find it easier to refocus on corporate earnings and growth themselves. If either one rises again, the continuation of the rebound will require more fundamental support. Today, we should watch whether these conditions change, rather than directly extrapolating Friday’s gains across the entire week.
Hotcoin TradFi Key Asset Volatility: Platform Products Diverge in Gains and Losses
As of 14:07:58 Beijing time, INTWB/USDT was down 11.26% over 24 hours, while SOXSB/USDT was up 7.37%. The following five items were selected based on the absolute value of their 24-hour percentage changes in the valid sample for this edition, with the direction of the change retained.
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Spot Trading Pair
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Latest Price (USDT)
|
24-Hour Change
|
|---|---|---|
|
INTWB/USDT
|
30.88
|
−11.26%
|
|
SOXSB/USDT
|
34.51
|
+7.37%
|
|
SOXLB/USDT
|
142.15
|
−6.67%
|
|
MVLLB/USDT
|
33.48
|
−6.19%
|
|
MUUB/USDT
|
36.42
|
−5.20%
|
This edition covers 71 spot trading pairs in active status, in the U.S. stock category, and quoted in USDT. All 71 samples passed the quote-timeliness check. Perpetual contracts and other categories are not included, so this does not represent volatility rankings across the entire platform. The figures in the table show rolling 24-hour performance under the same platform-product snapshot, not the returns of the underlying U.S. stocks at last Friday’s close.
This distinction is especially important on Mondays: U.S. stocks do not trade normally over the weekend, and the timing of the platform snapshot differs from the official close of the underlying market. The 24-hour rise or fall on the platform alone cannot be used to infer that the underlying stocks experienced the same change over the weekend.
Hotcoin observations:Of the five products in this edition, one rose and four fell, showing that a broad-market rebound cannot summarize the performance of every product. Products with similar codes may also have different structures and return mechanisms; when comparing them, first confirm the product attributes and then examine the price, rather than treating them directly as ordinary stocks.
Analyst view: A stock rebound and bond pressure can coexist
Kent Engelke｜Chief Economic Strategist at Capitol Securities:In a comment published on September 25 reviewing the previous trading day, he noted that energy and geopolitical news affected intraday stock performance, while long-term bonds remained under selling pressure. This observation highlights that different markets may react differently to the same news.
Our interpretation:Stocks may quickly price in improved sentiment, while bonds may continue to reflect concerns about inflation and long-term financing. Therefore, when assessing the quality of a rebound, one should not look only at whether stock indexes closed higher; it is also important to observe whether bond yields eased at the same time. This view was part of last week’s market commentary and does not represent market moves that have already occurred today.
Today’s major-events calendar: Bank regulation and AI issues warrant attention
September 28 is Monday, and U.S. stocks will trade normally. The following are confirmed key items, not a complete all-day calendar; as of this edition’s snapshot, none had yet occurred. Beijing Time is 12 hours ahead of ET.
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Eastern Time (ET)
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Beijing Time
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Event
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Focus
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|---|---|---|---|
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September 28, 08:15
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September 28, 20:15
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Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman participates in a discussion
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Latest developments in bank regulation and supervision
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September 28, 13:25
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September 29, 01:25
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Federal Reserve Governor Cook speaks
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Issues related to AI and emerging technologies
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Neither event is a new interest-rate decision. Bowman’s topic is oriented toward bank regulation, while Cook’s focuses on technological development; it cannot be assumed in advance that either will necessarily send a monetary-policy signal. Only remarks that actually address the economy, inflation, or the policy path are suitable for further discussion of their interest-rate implications.
This week ahead:At 08:30 ET on September 30, or 20:30 Beijing time, the third estimate of second-quarter GDP and August personal income and spending data will be released. The latter includes the PCE price index, making it inflation information worth watching ahead of time this week. They have not yet been released and cannot be treated as confirmed market conclusions for today.
Hotcoin’s focus today: Validate the rebound rather than simply track gains and losses
1. Watch whether the rebound broadens.Beyond the Dow and Nasdaq, watch whether more sectors and small-cap stocks can keep pace. If gains remain concentrated in only a handful of assets, internal market divergence remains important.
2. Watch whether oil prices and yields provide support.A rise in stock indexes accompanied by easing cost and financing pressures represents a different market condition from a rise in stock indexes while bonds remain under pressure.
3. Watch the price alignment after the U.S. stock market opens.Once regular U.S. stock market trading begins tonight, prices of platform products should be compared again with changes in the underlying markets to distinguish information accumulated over the weekend, the products’ own mechanisms, and new market trading.
The key for the new week is whether improving sentiment can gain broader market support. Through Hotcoin TradFi, we will continue to observe official closing data, platform product performance, and actual post-event reactions separately, focusing on whether the rebound can expand from the index level to a broader range of assets.
