Hotcoin Research | Market Insight: July 1-5, 2024

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.08 trillion, with BTC accounting for 53.859% at $1.12 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $152.6 billion.

This week, the price of BTC was affected by the lack of liquidity in the summer, and Mt.Gox has officially begun to repay BTC and BCH to creditors, the German government will transfer large amounts of BTC to CEX and other factors, the market appeared to be similar to the panic of "5.19", the price of BTC fell from $ 63,000 on July 1 to $ 54,000, and ETH also fell once. BTC price fell from $63,000 on July 1 to below $54,000, and ETH also fell below $2,900 for a while.

This week, the prices of the top 200 projects in the Coinmarket cap have fallen by 20%, plunging the market into panic, except for ZRO, which has recently gone live and gained 15.66% in the past 7 days.

"The 'Fear & Greed Index' stands at 29 (market sentiment is more panicky than last week), with 5 days of neutral and 2 days of fear this week.

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Looking back at the week's big events

1. July 1, QCP Capital: all signs point to a strongly bullish July;

2. wallet address labeled 'German Government' transfers 400 BTC to CEX;

3. Catizen launches Catizen SDK to support developers deploying games on Telegram with one click;

4. Jupiter co-founder: the vote on opening the Jupuary program again will take place in the coming weeks, with a proposed new design;

5. ether co-founder Vitalik Buterin sees prediction markets and community notes as the two main social cognitive technologies of the 2020s;

6. the Ethernet Foundation has sold a total of 2,266 ETH since January 2024

7. on July 3, the Polymarket prediction market saw the probability of Biden's election fall to an all-time low of 15%, with Trump's election probability at 64%;

8. on July 4, according to Arkham data, the wallet address labeled "German Government" transferred 13,475 Bitcoins to another address labeled "German Government";

9. on July 4, QCP Capital said in its latest market analysis that BTC broke below the $60,000 support level under heavy selling pressure, hitting a low of $57,875. btc miners are showing signs of capitulation, which historically usually signals that the price has bottomed;

10. the time span for Mt. Gox creditors to receive reimbursement could be as long as 3 months, with different custodians taking different amounts of time to process;

11. on July 5, U.S. cryptocurrency concepts fell broadly in pre-market, with shares of MicroStrategy, Marathon Digital and Coinbase among others;

12. the Ethernet network Gas rose to 36 Gwei, Zhu Su re-bought ETH at $2900, and the Pendle eco-fund address transferred 1 million PENDLEs to Binance.

Macroeconomics

1. on July 2, the U.S. SEC sued crypto-friendly bank Silvergate in federal court for securities fraud;

2. legal counsel for Consensys: a judge is expected to rule on the agency's case against the US SEC around December;

3. on July 3, Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, argued that the likelihood of the Solana ETF being approved would increase if SEC Chairman Gary Gensler ceased to be chairman after the 2024 presidential election;

4. on July 4, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in August is 91.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 8.8%.

ETF

According to statistics, during July 1-5, the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF net inflows: $237.8 million; as of July 5, GBTC (Grayscale) totaled outflows: $18.603 billion, and currently holds $15.491 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $17.374 billion. Total market capitalization of the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF is: $50.869 billion.

Foreseeing the Future

Upcoming Events

1. EthCC 7 (Ethereum Community Conference) is a large annual ethereum technology and community event that will take place in Brussels, Belgium, July 8-11, 2024, with over 5,000 attendees, 54 sponsors, 350+ speakers, and 300+ peripheral events expected;

2. IXO 2024, organized by South Korean blockchain media outlet TokenPost and co-sponsored by Mask Network, will take place in Seoul, South Korea, on July 9-10, 2024, and is the premier forum for entrepreneurs, institutions, industry insiders, investors, and builders to come together and discuss emerging issues in the cryptocurrency and Web3 space;

3. an offline event titled "Decentralized at Dusk: Brussels Crypto Brews" hosted by DFG, Jsquare, and AlterVerse at Delirium Cafe in Brussels, Belgium, on July 9, 2024, from 19:30-22:30, featuring guests such as DFG's founder and CEO James Wo, Jsquare's CMO Angela Tong, AlterVerse's CMO Andy Deme, Shardeum's VP of Developer Relations Chris Chabot, Shardeum's Chief Growth Officer Kelsey McGuire, and more;

4. TON's Season 5 The Open League event will officially kick off on July 10th at 19:00 BST.

Project Progress

1. ether.fi's Season 2 airdrop will open on July 8th. 2;

2. Layer2 network Kinto mining program rewards will begin to collect on July 8, the reward will be allocated in a 10-year period of time up to 33% of the token supply, the reward is gradually declining over time, weekly distribution on the chain. The mining program will reward asset deployers and developers with more Kinto tokens the longer and more capital is deployed. In addition, Engen founding participants who hold ENGEN tokens receive a 15-20% bonus;

3. crypto lending platform Nexo says its "NEXO Token hunt" campaign points can be used to claim NEXO tokens at 21:00 on July 10th;

4. OP Labs tweeted that the Fjord upgrade will go live on the OP mainnet on July 11th at 0:01 GMT. The upgrade will bring new features and cost reductions, including a 20x reduction in the cost of smart wallet key validation through RIP-7212 pre-compilation; developers will be able to create smart wallet experiences without size or cost constraints; transaction costs will be reduced by 5-15% with more accurate pricing and more efficient Brotli batch compression; sequencer drift will be increased from 10 to 30 minutes, etc.; and the Fjord upgrade will be available on the OP mainnet on July 11, 2012, as well as on the OP Labs website. minutes, etc;

5. solana ecosystem project holdium has indicated that it will be airdropping to holders of solana mobile chapter 2 pre-order tokens. by july 12, holdium will distribute a 5% supply of holdium to all holders of pre-order tokens.

Important Events

1. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has given Ether ETF issuers until July 8 to address the changes and resubmit them;

2. US SEC hearing related to CoinSafe lawsuit tentatively scheduled for July 9. 3;

3. a jury in a Manhattan court in New York City found Trump guilty on the afternoon of May 30 in the 'hush money' case. Trump became the first former president in U.S. history to be found guilty in a criminal case. The 12-member jury unanimously found Trump guilty of all 34 criminal charges brought by the prosecution. The presiding judge in the case denied a motion by Trump's defense attorneys to acquit Trump on the same day, and decided to hold a sentencing hearing and pronounce sentence on July 11th;

4. the motion hearing for Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm is scheduled for July 12 in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, where Tornado Cash attorneys filed a series of final pretrial motions in May alleging that the prosecution exceeded its authority.

Token Unlocking

1. Xai Token XAI will be unlocked at 17:00 on July 9. 198.1 million tokens will be unlocked, valued at approximately $56 million, or 71.59% of the circulating amount;

2. Immutable token IMX will be unlocked at 20:00 on July 12, 32.47 million pieces, valued at approximately $41.24 million, accounting for 2.15% of the outstanding quantity;

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is dedicated to providing comprehensive and professional analysis of the crypto market. Our goal is to offer clear market insights and practical operational guidance for investors at all levels. Our professional content includes "Play to Earn Web3" tutorial series, in-depth analysis of crypto market trends, detailed analysis of potential projects, and real-time market observations. Whether you are a newcomer exploring the crypto world or a seasoned investor seeking deep insights, Hotcoin is your reliable partner for understanding and seizing market opportunities.

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