Is the Ceasefire a Key Catalyst? Decoding Bitcoin’s “Fragile Rally” at $72,000 Hotcoin Research | April 6-10, 2026

Weekly Insights

Cập nhật2026-08-21

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Crypto Market Performance

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at $2.43 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59%, or $1.43 trillion. The total stablecoin market capitalization is $317.7 billion, up 0.28% over the last 7 days, with USDT accounting for 57.96% of the total.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most recorded gains while a few declined. Specifically, BTC rose 7.38% over the past 7 days, ETH rose 5.89%, SOL rose 4.68%, SIREN surged 297.2%, and MON rose 36.9%.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $770 million, while US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $180 million.

Market Forecast (April 13 - April 19):

RSI stands at 52.88 (neutral, higher than last week), the Fear & Greed Index is at 17 (extreme fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is at 34 (neutral).

BTC: $68,000-74,000 (Holding above $70,600 signals strength; a break below $69,000 warrants caution)

ETH: $2,150-2,360 (Has broken through $2,150; with $2,360 as the next target)

SOL: $80-90 (Forming a base around $80; with greater upside elasticity)

Main Risks:

Geopolitical instability. The rebound this week, influenced by oil prices and inflation expectations, relies heavily on sentiment recovery following the US-Iran ceasefire. Any renewed escalation could quickly reverse market momentum.
Weak on-chain demand indicates a lack of a solid foundation for the rebound. While BTC has rebounded above $72,000, on-chain data suggests that this rally lacks genuine buying support and is driven more by derivatives and short-term sentiment.
Structural vulnerability in the SOL network. In an environment of tight liquidity, asset-specific risks (e.g., SOL) could trigger broader contagion effects.

Current Overview

US-Iran Ceasefire Lifts Market Sentiment, Bitcoin Briefly Breaks $72,500

The primary catalyst this week was geopolitical developments. In the early hours of April 8th, as Iran accepted the ceasefire proposal and the US suspended military strikes, market sentiment reversed sharply. Bitcoin surged from around $68,000 to briefly break $72,500, making a new high since March, with a 24-hour gain of over 5%.

Epic Short Squeeze: Over $600 Million in Liquidations

The sudden rally triggered large-scale short liquidations. Data from April 8 shows total liquidations reached approximately $627 million over 24 hours, with shorts accounting for $473 million. Bitcoin and Ethereum contributed around $276 million and $121 million in liquidations, respectively.

Market Reverses Amid Extreme Fear: Ending Longest Fear Cycle

Ahead of the rebound, the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 12 on April 6, remaining in the “extreme fear” zone for over 17 consecutive days, marking the longest stretch in 2026. As conditions stabilized, sentiment recovered significantly to neutral-to-slightly-optimistic levels before the weekend.

Institutional Funds Return: ETFs Record Over $470 Million in a Single Day

While the market was extremely bearish on Monday (April 7th), institutions began building contrarian positions. The US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $471.3 million that day, reversing the weakness seen since early April. Meanwhile, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) accumulated 45,000 BTC over 30 days, marking its largest monthly increase in nearly a year.

Oil–Crypto Divergence: Strait of Hormuz Becomes a Key Variable

The inverse relationship between oil prices and crypto assets became more pronounced this week. Following the attack on Kharg Island, Iran’s largest oil export hub, oil prices surged to $116, weighing on risk assets. After the ceasefire agreement, prices fell back toward $100 per barrel, triggering a recovery in crypto market risk appetite.

Hong Kong Milestone: First Batch of Stablecoin Licenses Announced

On April 10, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) officially announced the first batch of stablecoin licenses. The regulator reportedly received 36 applications, with only 2–3 approvals granted, highlighting stringent regulatory standards. Following the announcement, A-share and Hong Kong-listed crypto-related stocks rallied, with Guotai Junan International surging nearly 40% intraday.

Miners Under Pressure: Prices Below Production Costs, Hashrate Declines

Despite the weekend rebound, earlier data showed Bitcoin's estimated production cost at $77,000-$87,000, while the market price dropped as low as $67,000, around 20% below cost. Network hashrate declined to approximately 870 EH/s, down 10% from its peak. Mining difficulty has adjusted downward for three consecutive periods, increasing shutdown risks for less efficient miners.

US Regulatory Outlook: Clarity Act in Focus

Beyond geopolitics, US crypto legislation remains a key market theme. Analysts suggest the continuation of the bull market hinges on two catalysts: a sustained ceasefire easing oil prices, and the potential passage of the US Clarity Act in late April. Prediction markets currently assign a 72% probability to the bill’s approval.

AI Sector Faces "Decentralization" Credibility Concerns

While broader markets rebounded, Bittensor (TAO) declined nearly 10%, underperforming the trend. The drop followed Covenant AI’s exit from the network, with allegations that co-founder Jacob Steeves retained effective control, raising concerns that the project’s decentralization claims were overstated. The incident has intensified scrutiny over governance in decentralized AI ecosystems.

Sector Rotation: SocialFi and DePIN Lead Gains

As sentiment improved, capital rotation became evident. The SocialFi sector led gains, with Toncoin (TON) and Chiliz (CHZ) showing strong performance. Meanwhile, DePIN and RWA sectors also posted gains exceeding 3%, suggesting a shift from speculative MEME assets toward sectors with stronger fundamental narratives.

Macroeconomics

On April 9, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 came in at 219,000, above expectations of 210,000.
On April 9, the US core PCE price index rose 3% year-over-year in February, in line with expectations.
On April 10, the US March CPI (non-seasonally adjusted) rose 3.3% year-over-year, marking the highest level since May 2024, in line with market expectations, compared with 2.4% previously.
On April 9, according to CME FedWatch data, following the latest CPI release, the probability of a 25 bps rate hike in April stands at 1.6%, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 98.4%.

ETFs

According to available data, from April 6 to April 10, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $770 million. As of April 10, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen cumulative outflows of $25.99 billion and currently holds $11.27 billion in assets, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $57.57 billion. The total assets under management (AUM) of US Bitcoin spot ETFs stand at $93.99 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $180 million.

Looking Ahead

Industry Conferences

GOAT Network will host an offline event in Beijing on April 11, 2026, from 14:00 to 15:00, themed "How to Make Your First Money with AI Agents".
Blockchain Forum Russia 2026 will be held in Moscow, Russia, from April 14 to 15.
Paris Blockchain Week 2026 will be held in Paris, France, from April 15 to 16.
Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will be held in Hong Kong, China, from April 20 to 23.
Bitcoin Las Vegas 2026 will be held in Las Vegas, US, from April 27 to 29.

Project Updates

The Fogo airdrop claim deadline is April 15, 2026.
UX Chain will gradually wind down operations and is expected to fully shut down by May 15.
Yupp.ai will shut down, while the website will remain accessible for data downloads until April 15.

Key Events

At 20:30 on April 16, the US will release initial jobless claims (thousands) for the week ending April 11.
Latin American e-commerce giant Mercado Libre will shut down its platform token, Mercado Coin, on April 17.
Carl Rinsch, director of 47 Ronin, has been charged with defrauding Netflix of $11 million to purchase cryptocurrency and luxury goods. He is scheduled to be sentenced on April 17, 2026, and faces up to 90 years in prison.

Token Unlocking

Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on April 15, worth approximately $4.38 million, representing 4.22% of the circulating supply.
Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.55 million tokens on April 15, worth approximately $3.17 million, representing 0.97% of the circulating supply.
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on April 16, worth approximately $10.29 million, representing 1.75% of the circulating supply.
ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 173 million tokens on April 17, worth approximately $2.67 million, representing 2.88% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of the Hotcoin exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for your investment decisions. We analyze market trends through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Research Reports"; and with our exclusive column "Hot Coin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers will also engage with you face-to-face via live stream, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm support and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the valuable opportunities of Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment inherently carries risk. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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Mục lục

Crypto Market Performance
Current Overview
Macroeconomics
ETFs
Looking Ahead
Industry Conferences
Project Updates
Key Events
Token Unlocking
About Us
Risk Warning

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