Gunfire, Hacks, and Market Rout: Crypto Under Triple Pressure Hotcoin Research | March 30 - April 3, 2026

Weekly Insights

Cập nhật2026-08-21

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Crypto Market Performance

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at $2.31 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.1%, or $1.34 trillion. The total stablecoin market capitalization is $316.7 billion, up 0.47% over the last 7 days, with USDT accounting for 58.06% of the total.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, declines dominated while only a minority posted gains. Over the past 7 days, BTC fell 1.88%, ETH rose 0.58%, SOL fell 7.05%, while M and ALGO gained 24.04% and 42.97%, respectively.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $22.4 million; US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of $42.1 million.

Market Forecast (April 6th - April 12th):

The RSI stands at 51.25 (neutral, higher than last week), the Fear & Greed index is 10 (extreme fear), and the Altcoin Season index is 43 (neutral).

BTC: $62,000-72,000 (A break below $60,000 could send BTC toward $52,500, while a sustained move above $70,000 would require stronger catalysts)

ETH: $1,950-2,200 (Key support level $2,000)

SOL: $70-90 (Drift exploit weighs on rebound momentum)

Main Risks:

Geopolitical escalation (high priority). Further US military action against Iran, or disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, could drive oil prices higher, further weighing on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
A breakdown below the key $60,000 support level. Technical indicators suggest that a decisive break below the psychological level of $60,000 could trigger algorithmic selling and leveraged liquidations, accelerating a move toward the $52,500-$55,000 area. With AI-driven trading reportedly accounting for over 65% of market activity, post-break volatility could be significantly amplified.
Deepening trust concerns within the Solana ecosystem. The Drift Protocol exploit (resulting in approximately $286 million in losses, suspected to be linked to North Korean hackers) could accelerate capital outflows from the Solana ecosystem if further vulnerabilities come to light.

Current Overview

Macro Sentiment Dominates, Bitcoin experienced a Rollercoaster Week

Early in the week, optimism around potential U.S.–Iran negotiations pushed Bitcoin above $69,000 to a near one-week high. However, on April 2, following Donald Trump’s remarks suggesting a “very severe” strike on Iran, sentiment reversed sharply. Bitcoin fell below $67,000, with major assets such as Ethereum and Solana declining across the board. Heightened macro uncertainty triggered heavy liquidations in derivatives markets, with total liquidations exceeding 300,000 positions for the week, including 150,000 on April 2 alone.

US Department of Justice Charges 10 Individuals with "Market Maker" Fraud

U.S. prosecutors filed criminal charges against 10 individuals, accusing them of engaging in crypto-related wash trading and pump-and-dump schemes. Notably, the tokens involved were reportedly created by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, marking a landmark case in regulators’ crackdown on market manipulation and signaling tighter scrutiny of small-cap tokens going forward.

BlackRock Transfers Over $120M in Crypto to Coinbase Prime

On-chain data shows that an address linked to the BlackRock ETF deposited 1,360 Bitcoins (approximately $90.28 million) and 15,103 ETH (approximately $30.82 million) into Coinbase Prime on April 3. Such flows are typically associated with ETF subscriptions or market-making activity, indicating that traditional financial institutions continue to build exposure to crypto via spot channels.

JPMorgan Downgrades HashKey, Flags Regulatory Headwinds

JPMorgan downgraded Hong Kong-listed crypto exchange HashKey from "Overweight" to "Neutral," cutting its target price by 44%. The downgrade reflects weak market sentiment and declining margins, highlighting that even compliant exchanges face significant profitability pressure in the current downturn.

Elon Musk Sparks Meme Coin Rally, Trader Achieves 211x Return

On March 30, Elon Musk released an AI-generated animation referencing "Bitcoin's wife," triggering a surge in a related meme coin (ANIME), which briefly reached a $3.4 million market cap. One trader reportedly turned a position initially worth 1.1 SOL (~$230) into $19,500, representing a 211x return, underscoring Musk’s continued influence over meme-driven markets.

Mercado Libre to Shut Down Mercado Coin

The company announced it will discontinue its proprietary token, Mercado Coin, on April 17. Originally launched in 2022 as a user incentive mechanism, the move suggests large tech firms are reassessing the utility of loyalty tokens and increasingly favoring stablecoins for payments.

Diverging Institutional Signals: Saxo Bank vs. BitGo

Institutional sentiment appears mixed. Saxo Bank noted a lack of strong inflows into crypto markets, with options positioning remaining defensive. In contrast, BitGo launched “BitGo Mint,” an institutional-grade stablecoin minting service supporting USD1 and SoFiUSD, aimed at providing compliant access for market makers and banks—suggesting continued progress in infrastructure development.

FTX Begins Fourth Distribution, Returning Approximately $2.2B to Creditors

FTX has entered a new phase of its restructuring process, initiating its fourth distribution on March 31, totaling approximately $2.2 billion. Eligible creditors will receive funds via platforms such as BitGo and Kraken. Whether these funds translate into renewed market demand remains a key point of focus.

EthCC Held in Cannes As Ecosystem Development Continues

EthCC, Europe’s largest Ethereum community conference, took place in Cannes from March 30 to April 2. Meanwhile, Aave V4 launched on Ethereum mainnet, and Sushi announced the rollout of its perpetual futures market. Despite weak market conditions, core development activity remains resilient.

Whale Opens 40x Leveraged BTC Short Amid Downside Risks

Against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, a large holder opened a $13.3 million Bitcoin short position with 40x leverage on April 2, according to Hyperinsight. This aggressive positioning suggests that sophisticated traders continue to anticipate further downside, with geopolitical risks yet to be fully priced in.

Macroeconomics

April 1: US March ADP employment increased by 62,000 in March, above expectations of 40,000 and slightly below the prior reading of 63,000.
April 2: US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28th came in at 202,000, marking the lowest level since the week ending January 10, 2026. The figure was below the consensus estimate of 212,000, while the prior reading was revised from 210,000 to 211,000.
April 1: According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 2.1% probability of a 25bps rate hike in April, versus a 97.9% probability of rates remaining unchanged.

ETFs

According to statistics, from March 30th to April 3rd, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $22.4 million. As of April 3, GBTC (Grayscale) experienced a total outflow of $25.978 billion, currently holding $10.35 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $52.493 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $89.003 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $42.1 million.

Looking Ahead

Industry Conference

BNB Chain will host a U.S. university roadshow at University of California, Berkeley on April 7, 2026.
GOAT Network will host an offline event in Beijing on April 11, 2026, from 14:00 to 15:00, themed “How to Make Your First Money with AI Agents.”
Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will take place in Hong Kong from April 20 to 23, 2026.
Istanbul Blockchain Week 2026 will be held in Turkey from June 2 to 3, 2026.

Project Updates

Fogo airdrop claims will close on April 15, 2026.
MEET48’s IDOL staking program on BNB Chain will run through April 18, 2026. Launched on March 19, the program allows users to lock IDOL tokens for 90 days and earn up to 40% APR, with principal and rewards distributed upon maturity.

Key Upcoming Events

Gemini will shut down all customer accounts in the UK, EEA, and Australia starting April 6, 2026.
European Central Bank is recruiting experts to contribute to the development of the digital euro rulebook, with applications open until April 10. The initiative includes two working groups covering ATM and terminal implementation standards, as well as certification and approval frameworks for payment solutions.
April 9, 20:30 (UTC+8): U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4.
April 9, 20:30 (UTC+8): U.S. core PCE price index (YoY) for February.
April 10, 20:30 (UTC+8): U.S. CPI (YoY, non-seasonally adjusted) for March.

Token Unlocking

Opinion (OPN) will unlock 32.01 million tokens on April 5, valued at approximately $6.05 million, representing 13.91% of the circulating supply.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock 333,000 tokens on April 6th, valued at approximately $11.8 million, representing 0.14% of the circulating supply.
Movement (MOVE) will unlock 161 million tokens on April 9th, valued at approximately $2.91 million, representing 4.92% of the circulating supply.
Babylon (BABY) will unlock 632 million tokens on April 10th, valued at approximately $8.86 million, representing 37.77% of the circulating supply.
Linea (LINEA) will unlock 1.38 billion tokens on April 10th, valued at approximately $4.12 million, representing 5.32% of the circulating supply.
Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.3 million tokens on April 12th, valued at approximately $9.79 million, representing 0.68% of the circulating supply.

About Us:

Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of the Hotcoin exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for your trading. We analyze market trends for you through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Research Reports"; and with our exclusive column "Hot Coin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers will also connect with you live to interpret hot topics and predict trends. We believe that warm support and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.

Risk Warning:

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment inherently carries risk. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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Mục lục

Crypto Market Performance
Current Overview
Macroeconomics
ETFs
Looking Ahead
Industry Conference
Project Updates
Key Upcoming Events
Token Unlocking
About Us:
Risk Warning:

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