Dual Headwinds Ahead: The CLARITY Act and CPI Take Center Stage Hotcoin Research | July 6-July 10, 2026

Weekly Insights

Cập nhật2026-08-21

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Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total crypto market capitalization is $2.19 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.5% ($1.28 trillion). The stablecoin market capitalization is $311.9 billion, up 0.17% over the last 7 days, with USDT accounting for 59.03%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most rose, and some fell. Among them: BTC gained 3.7% over the past seven days; ETH rose 3.45%; SOL fell 2.4%; ARB rose 19.57%; and LIT rose 19.15%.

Market Outlook (July 13-July 19):

The RSI is at 50.22 (neutral, higher than last week), the Fear & Greed Index is at 22 (fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is at 50 (neutral)

BTC: $61,000–67,000

ETH: $1,700–1,850

SOL: $75–90

The market is approaching a key inflection point next week. CPI data on July 14 and the Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act are the two core variables. Until uncertainty subsides, the market is likely to remain range-bound.

Risks to Watch

Risk of the CLARITY Act Failing in the Senate (Regulatory Policy)

It is expected to be submitted to the full Senate for a vote during the week of July 13, but three major disagreements remain unresolved, and at least 60 votes are required to overcome a filibuster. If the bill fails to pass before the August 7 congressional recess, its legislative prospects for 2026 could effectively stall, dealing a significant blow to market confidence.

Risk of Higher Rate-Hike Expectations (Macro Liquidity)

If the CPI released on July 14 exceeds expectations, it will strengthen the view that the Federal Reserve will resume rate hikes in September (the current probability is 65%) and weigh directly on risk assets. Bitcoin fell 2.7% immediately following the release of the minutes, and any hawkish signal may trigger a new round of selling.

Risk of a Long Liquidation Cascade (Market Structure)

Long positions currently dominate open interest across BTC, ETH, SOL, and other perpetual futures, while the recent rebound lacks strong spot buying support. If prices fall below key support levels, such as $61,000 for BTC or $80 for SOL, it could trigger a cascade of liquidations, creating a vicious cycle of falling prices, forced liquidations, and further downside.

Market Highlights

MiCA Takes Full Effect as USDT Exits the European Market

Following the end of the MiCA transition period on July 1, its impact continued to unfold this week. Currently, only 280 crypto-asset service providers have been authorized, while just 21 issuers are permitted to issue e-money tokens (EMTs) pegged to a single fiat currency. Without regulatory authorization, USDT, with a market capitalization of $186 billion, has been delisted from regulated exchanges across the EU, with its market share shifting to compliant stablecoins such as USDC.

CLARITY Act Faces Legislative Roadblocks

The highly anticipated CLARITY Act failed to advance by its July 4 target date. Key disagreements over ethics provisions and developer exemptions remain unresolved. With the August 7 congressional recess approaching, Polymarket now places its chances of passing in 2026 at just 40% to 48%.

Sony Bank Expands Into Stablecoins With U.S. OCC Approval

Sony Bank has received conditional approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish a national trust bank in the United States. The bank plans to launch U.S. dollar stablecoin issuance and settlement services in 2027, marking a broader shift by traditional financial institutions from buyers to issuers.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs End a 10-Day Outflow Streak

On July 6, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a 10-day streak of net outflows, recording net inflows of approximately $265.7 million, led by BlackRock's IBIT, which attracted $209.4 million. Combined net inflows across spot Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs reached approximately $295 million that day.

Fed Minutes Reveal Hawkish Divide as Markets Come Under Pressure

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting, released on July 8, showed policymakers split 9 to 9 on whether to resume rate hikes. Bitcoin fell 2.7% following the release of the minutes, reflecting renewed concerns over potential rate hikes.

XRP Overtakes USDC to Become the Fifth Largest Cryptocurrency

XRP rose 5.3% to $1.18 earlier this week, lifting its market capitalization to approximately $73 billion and allowing it to overtake USDC as the world's fifth-largest cryptocurrency.

Strategy Makes First Major Bitcoin Sale Since 2022

As the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC between June 29 and July 5, generating approximately $216 million in proceeds. The sale was primarily intended to meet debt obligations and represented approximately 0.4% of its total Bitcoin holdings. It marked the company's first major Bitcoin sale since 2022.

SWIFT Launches Blockchain Ledger, 17 Banks Join Pilot

On July 9, SWIFT announced the launch of its blockchain ledger platform. Seventeen major banks across six continents will participate in a 24/7 cross-border payment pilot using tokenized deposits.

BONK DAO Hit by $20 Million Governance Attack

On July 6, BONK DAO confirmed that it had been targeted by a malicious governance proposal. The attacker spent approximately $4.4 million acquiring BONK tokens to gain voting power and used the proposal to transfer approximately $20 million worth of BONK from the DAO treasury. BONK fell 7% to 10% following the attack.

Bitcoin BIP-110 Proposal Sparks Community Debate

On July 9, the number of signal blocks supporting BIP-110 rose to 17, drawing widespread attention within the Bitcoin community. The proposal seeks to limit the storage of non-financial data, such as images, on the Bitcoin blockchain through a soft fork. Supporters argue it would reduce blockchain spam, while critics warn that it could increase the risk of a chain split.

Macro Update

On July 9, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended July 4 came in at 215,000, beating the consensus estimate of 218,000. The previous week's figure was revised up to 217,000 from 215,000.
On July 10, the CME FedWatch Tool showed a 75.6% probability that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, with a 24.4% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike.

Looking Ahead

Industry Conferences

WebX 2026 will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from July 13 to 14, 2026.
Canadian Blockchain Week 2026 will be held in Toronto, Canada, from July 20 to 26.
Bitcoin Hong Kong will be held in Hong Kong, China, from August 27 to 28, 2026.

Key Events

The comment period on the National Credit Union Administration's proposed licensing standards for payment stablecoin issuers will close on July 17.
At 20:30 on July 14, the U.S. will release the June unadjusted CPI year-over-year reading.
At 20:30 on July 14, the U.S. will release the June seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month reading.
At 20:30 on July 16, the U.S. will release initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11.

Project Updates

The UK Financial Conduct Authority’s consultation on allowing authorized investment funds to allocate up to 10% of their assets to crypto ETNs will close on July 13.
Strategy’s preferred stock STRC will switch to a semi-monthly dividend schedule, with the first semi-monthly dividend payment set for July 15, 2026.
On-chain derivatives protocol Satori will gradually cease operations. Its withdrawal and position closure windows will close by July 17.
The Cyberspace Administration of China is seeking public comments on proposed rules to promote the interoperability and mutual recognition of distributed digital identities. The consultation period will close on July 18.

Token Unlocks

io.net (IO) will unlock 13.29 million tokens on July 11, worth approximately $2.26 million, representing 3.61% of the circulating supply.
Optimism (OP) will unlock 4.47 million tokens on July 11, worth approximately $473,000, representing 0.21% of the circulating supply.
Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.3 million tokens on July 12, worth approximately $7.17 million, representing 0.66% of the circulating supply.
Pump.fun (PUMP) will unlock 82.5 billion tokens on July 12, worth approximately $125 million, representing 29.39% of the circulating supply.
ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 167 million tokens on July 17, worth approximately $1.84 million, representing 2.65% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to turning professional crypto analysis into actionable market insights. Through our Weekly Insights and In-depth Research Reports, we break down market dynamics and spotlight emerging opportunities. With Hotcoin Elite Picks—our exclusive dual-screening process powered by both AI and human expertise—we help identify high-potential assets while minimizing trial-and-error costs.

We also engage with the community through weekly livestreams, decoding market hot topics, and forecasting key trends. Our goal is to empower investors of all levels to navigate cycles with confidence and capture long-term opportunities in Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment inherently carries risk. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to protect their capital.

Website: https://www.hotcoin.com/r/Hotcoinresearch

X: x.com/HotcoinAcademy

Email: labs@hotcoin.com

Mục lục

Crypto Market Performance
Market Highlights
Macro Update
Looking Ahead
Industry Conferences
Key Events
Project Updates
Token Unlocks
About Us
Risk Warning

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