Crypto Market Performance

Market Outlook (January 26 – February 1)

Risk Factors and Macro Watch

Stay Informed

Review of the Week’s Major Events

1. On January 19, the cryptocurrency market experienced a flash crash during Monday morning trading. Bitcoin briefly fell 3.79% over the course of 1 hour, dropping from around $95,500 to $91,900, before rebounding to approximately $92,800.
2. On January 18, Sonic announced that, as planned, 16,027,929.41 S tokens were successfully burned via a fully permissionless smart contract. The burned tokens will be reallocated to the unclaimed first-quarter airdrop.
3. On January 18, according to DefiLlama data, Meteora generated $1.33 million in revenue over the past 24 hours, surpassing Pump.fun’s $1.16 million, ranking behind only Tether ($16.45 million) and Circle ($6.6 million).
4. On January 19, Paradex's official status page confirmed that its blockchain operations were fully restored at 20:13.
5. On January 20, yields on Japanese 40-year government bonds rose 5.5 basis points to 4%, marking the highest level since issuance in 2007 and the first time in over three decades that yields reached this level. This also marks the first time Japanese government bond yields have exceeded 4% since December 1995, when the 20-year yield briefly reached 4%.
6. On January 21, according to Bitget market data, spot gold surged 10% over 20 days, breaking above $4,800 per ounce for the first time, with a year-to-date gain exceeding $480.
7. On January 21, cryptocurrency wallet Rainbow announced it will conduct a snapshot for the RNBW token airdrop at 16:20 ET on January 26, with the official airdrop scheduled for February 5.
8. On January 22, Trump stated that the US would not impose tariffs on Greenland, briefly triggering a rebound across the cryptocurrency market.
9. On January 22, North Korean hacking groups resurfaced, targeting more than 3,100 IP addresses through fake job interview schemes.
10. On January 23, according to the Financial Times, SpaceX is reportedly seeking investment banks on Wall Street for its anticipated “mega” IPO, which could become one of the largest public offerings in history.
11. On January 22, cryptocurrency custody provider BitGo (BTGO.US) officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange, becoming the first cryptocurrency IPO of the year.

Macroeconomic News

1. On January 22, US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17 came in at 200,000, below expectations of 210,000. The prior week’s figure was revised upward from 198,000 to 199,000.
2. At 23:00 on January 23, the US released the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January, which registered 56.4, above both the forecast and the previous reading of 54.
3. On January 23, according to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January stood at 5.7%, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged was 94.3%.

ETFs

Foreseeing the Future

Industry Conferences

1. Consensus Hong Kong 2026 will be held in Hong Kong, China, from February 11 to February 12.
2. ETHDenver 2026 will take place in Denver, USA, from February 17 to February 21.
3. EthCC 9 will be held in Cannes, France, from March 30 to April 2, 2026. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of Europe’s largest and longest-running annual Ethereum events, focusing on technology and community development.

Project Updates

1. Defiance will close its Nasdaq-listed Ethereum ETF, Defiance Leveraged Long & Yield Ethereum ETF (ETHI), on January 26.
2. The deadline for the first unlocking of RollX, a perpetual DEX protocol on the Base network, is January 26. The total supply of Genesis airdrop tokens is 180 million. Eligible addresses include Trade and LP point holders, as well as contributors who participated via Binance Wallet, Bitlayer, Galxe, and other activities.
3. The application window for the Aster Phase 4 airdrop will open on January 28, 2026.
4. Pixel Ninja, a game developed by TON ecosystem project Catizen, will be delisted on January 29, 2026.
5. The cross-chain DeFi aggregation platform Infinex will hold its TGE public sale on January 30. The public sale included 868 participants, raised 7.214 million USDC, distributed approximately $5 million worth of tokens (5% of the INX supply), and refunded approximately $2.21 million.
6. Coinbase will suspend services in Argentina. Starting January 31, 2026, Coinbase will no longer support buying or selling in Argentine pesos. USDC will remain supported, and deposit and withdrawal services will not be affected.
7. Metaverse avatar platform Ready Player Me has been acquired by Netflix and will cease operations on January 31, 2026. All team members will be integrated into Netflix.

Important Events

1. Starting January 28, South Korea’s Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) will restrict unregistered overseas cryptocurrency exchanges and wallets from being listed on Google Play. Registration will require an Anti-Money Laundering system and Information Security Management System (ISMS) certification issued by the Korea Internet & Security Agency (KISA). Applications that fail to comply will be blocked in South Korea. New users will be unable to install affected apps, and existing users may experience access issues due to update restrictions.
2. At 22:45 on January 28, Canada will announce its central bank interest rate decision.
3. At 03:00 on January 29, the United States will announce its Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit).
4. At 21:30 on January 29, the United States will release initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24.

Token Unlocking

1. Jupiter (JUP) will unlock 53.45 million tokens on January 28, worth approximately $10.53 million, representing 1.7% of the circulating supply.
2. TreeHouse (TREE) will unlock 85.85 million tokens on January 29, worth approximately $8.5 million, representing 39.41% of the circulating supply.
3. Zora (ZORA) will unlock 168 million tokens on January 30, worth approximately $5.23 million, representing 4% of the circulating supply.
4. Kamino (KMNO) will unlock 228 million tokens on January 30, worth approximately $11.22 million, representing 3.68% of the circulating supply.
5. Optimism (OP) will unlock 31.34 million tokens on January 31, worth approximately $9.88 million, representing 1.62% of the circulating supply.
6. Sui (SUI) will unlock 43.52 million tokens on February 1, worth approximately $65.29 million, representing 1.15% of the circulating supply.
7. EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 36.82 million tokens on February 1, worth approximately $12.53 million, representing 8.88% of the circulating supply.

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