Bitcoin Battles at $60K: Will Risk Continue to Outweigh Opportunity Next Week? Hotcoin Research | June 22-26, 2026

Crypto Market Performance

• Macro Policy Uncertainty: Higher-than-expected PCE inflation data has once again heightened market concerns about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in July (markets are pricing in a 23% probability). If Fed officials make hawkish remarks, it could put pressure on risk assets across the board.
• Institutional Outflows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows in June have exceeded $2.5 billion. The continued departure of institutional funds directly reflects a lack of market confidence. At the same time, the market is concerned that Strategy, which holds a large amount of Bitcoin, may be forced to sell part of its Bitcoin holdings under financial pressure, which could create selling pressure on the market.
• Liquidity Rotation and Market Divergence: Liquidity has been rotating from crypto into AI and technology stocks, reducing market liquidity and putting broad pressure on altcoins.
• Weak Technical Outlook: ETH remains below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating that the medium- to long-term trend remains tilted to the downside. A technical recovery requires time and trading volume.

Market Highlights

• Bitcoin Loses the $60K Level

• Crypto Liquidations Near $1 Billion

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs See Six Consecutive Weeks of Outflows

• Massive Bitcoin Options Expiry Adds to Market Volatility

• Strategy's Bitcoin Treasury Model Faces Growing Pressure

• Macro Headwinds: Hawkish Fed and Stronger Dollar

• BlackRock Says AI Is Drawing Capital Away from Crypto

• Market Sentiment Falls into Extreme Fear

• BlackRock: Rising U.S. Debt Could Support Bitcoin Demand

• Major Altcoins Follow Bitcoin Lower

Macro Update

• On June 25, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week to June 20 was 215,000, compared with the expected 225,000. The previous value was revised from 226,000 to 227,000.
• The U.S. final first-quarter annualized real GDP growth rate came in at 2.1%, versus expectations of 1.6% and the previous estimate of 1.6%. The U.S. core PCE price index rose 3.4% year over year in May, in line with market expectations and marking its highest level since October 2023.
• On June 19, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is now 71.2%, while the probability of raising rates by 25 basis points is 28.8%.

Spot ETF Flows

Looking Ahead

Industry Conferences

• IVS2026 KYOTO will be held in Kyoto, Japan, from July 1 to 3, 2026.
• WebX 2026 will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from July 13 to 14, 2026.
• Bitcoin Hong Kong will be held in Hong Kong, China, from August 27 to 28, 2026.

Key Events

• Solana treasury company Forward Industries will be added to the Russell Index, with the adjustment taking effect after the U.S. market opens on June 29. The annual Russell Index reconstitution is based on the ranking of the top 3,000 U.S. companies by market capitalization as of April 30.
• The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will require digital asset exchanges and custodians to meet compliance standards by June 30, 2027, or risk suspension or license revocation.
• The U.S. CFTC’s no-action relief for the conversion of digital commodity perpetual futures contracts will remain in effect until June 30, 2026.
• Russia plans to finalize its legislative framework by July 1, 2026.
• The transition period under the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) will end on July 1. Crypto platforms without an MiCA license will no longer be able to serve EU users, potentially disrupting services for millions of users.
• The White House plans to push the CLARITY Act through the House of Representatives on July 4.
• The U.S. will release the June ADP Employment Report at 20:15 on July 1.
• The U.S. will release the June unemployment rate at 20:30 on July 2.
• The U.S. will release the June Nonfarm Payrolls data at 20:30 on July 2.

Project Updates

• The shareholder meeting for the business combination between Securitize and CEPT will be held on June 29. Upon completion of the merger, the combined company is expected to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker “SECZ.”
• DeFi lending protocol Seamless has shut down. Users must withdraw their assets by June 30. The protocol UI will go offline on June 30, 2026, and team support will end at the same time.
• Multi-chain trading protocol Novaswap will cease operations on June 30.
• Polygon zkEVM Mainnet Beta will officially shut down on July 1. Users must withdraw assets and complete cross-chain operations before that date.

Token Unlocks

• Falcon Finance (FF) will unlock 102 million tokens on June 29, worth approximately $6.88 million, accounting for 3.66% of the circulating supply.
• Optimism (OP) will unlock 31.34 million tokens on June 30, worth approximately $3.24 million, accounting for 1.48% of the circulating supply.
• Sui (SUI) will unlock 13.73 million tokens on July 1, worth approximately $9.3 million, accounting for 0.34% of the circulating supply.
• EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 36.77 million tokens on July 1, worth approximately $7.98 million, accounting for 6.15% of the circulating supply.
• Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on July 2, worth approximately $3.22 million, accounting for 0.48% of the circulating supply.

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