A Double-Edged Sword: ETFs Are Buying Like Crazy While Whales Exit — What Are the Key Levels Next Week? Hotcoin Research | February 23 – March 1, 2026

Weekly Insights

Cập nhật2026-08-21

3.9K

Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.27 trillion, with BTC accounting for 57.9% at $1.31 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins stands at $309.4 billion, an increase of 0.5% over the past 7 days, with USDT accounting for 59.31%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most declined, with only a small number posting gains. Specifically, BTC fell 3.11% over 7 days, ETH fell 1.87%, SOL fell 3.23%, while DCR rose 36.34% and PIPPIN rose 34.03%.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $787.5 million, while US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $80.3 million.

Market Forecast (March 2nd - March 8th):

BTC: $66,000–70,000 (If it breaks below this range, it may decline further toward $60,000)

ETH: $1,880–2,050 (In extreme market conditions, it may test $1,776)

SOL: $80–91 (If it breaks below $80, the situation may deteriorate rapidly)

Currently, the RSI is 45.39 (neutral range), the Fear & Greed Index is 10 (extreme fear), and the Altcoin Index is 43 (neutral, consistent with last week).

The core market narrative recently has revolved around a macro-level “double whammy” affecting both bulls and bears. On one hand, the easing of last week’s “mysterious selling pressure” and strong ETF inflows have injected rebound momentum into the market. On the other hand, the upcoming regulatory meeting and persistent inflation data have cast the shadow of a potential “bull trap” over the market.

Overall, the market next week will be influenced by macro-level events, and extra caution is warranted in trading. Before regulatory uncertainty clears, heavy positioning in either direction may carry elevated risks.

Understanding the Present & Reviewing the Week's Major Events

US–Israeli Attack on Iran: Bitcoin’s “Safe-Haven Status” Under Scrutiny Again

On Saturday (February 28), US President Trump announced a “large-scale and sustained” military operation against Iran, dramatically escalating geopolitical risks. As a highly liquid global asset traded 24/7, Bitcoin reacted swiftly to the conflict, with its price plunging below $64,000. Over 150,000 traders were liquidated within 24 hours, with total liquidations nearing $500 million.

This sharp drop reignited widespread debate over whether Bitcoin truly possesses the safe-haven attributes of “digital gold,” as its price fell in tandem with traditional risk assets, while gold rebounded to around $5,250 amid rising safe-haven demand.

Hong Kong Fires the First Shot in “Sovereign Stablecoins,” Phasing Out US Dollar Stablecoins

This week, Hong Kong sent shockwaves through the stablecoin sector. Authorities revealed plans to issue a limited number of stablecoin issuer licenses in March this year to counter the “siphoning” of liquidity from Asian markets by US dollar stablecoins.

As a precursor, several cryptocurrency exchange shops in Hong Kong have stopped trading USDT and USDC, stablecoins denominated in US dollars, quietly igniting a “currency war” driven by both legal and strategic measures. The move aims to pave the way for the formalization of Hong Kong dollar stablecoins, marking a shift in stablecoins from speculative tools in a crypto casino to strategic instruments in global financial competition.

Mysterious “10 AM Selling Pressure” Eases, Jane Street Faces Insider Trading Lawsuit

The most dramatic moment in the market this week was undoubtedly Bitcoin’s sudden surge. On Wednesday, Bitcoin climbed above $70,000, while Ethereum and Solana also rose more than 10%.

Market commentators linked this rebound to an insider trading lawsuit filed against market maker Jane Street Group. For months, a mysterious pattern had existed in the market: large-scale sell-offs occurred daily at 10 AM (Eastern Time). After news of the lawsuit broke, this months-long “dumping” abruptly stopped. The market speculated that the selling pressure was related to Jane Street’s algorithm, and its suspension provided strong momentum for the rebound.

Bitcoin ETFs Surge $1 Billion in Three Days, Strong Institutional “Buy the Dip” Signal

Despite dramatic price fluctuations this week, institutional investors have shown a markedly different stance. Data shows that from Tuesday to Thursday, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $1.02 billion, ending five consecutive weeks of net outflows.

BlackRock’s IBIT led the inflows with a single-day net addition of nearly $280 million. Analysts interpret this “buy the dip” behavior as a positive signal of easing aggressive selling pressure, suggesting that large long-term holders remain confident in Bitcoin’s outlook.

ZKsync Lite Announces Official Shutdown, Over $33 Million in Assets Awaiting Withdrawal

This week, Ethereum Layer 2 network ZKsync announced that its older version, ZKsync Lite (formerly ZKsync 1.0), will officially cease operations on May 4. At that time, the network will stop producing blocks and permanently freeze its final state.

Data shows that approximately $33.9 million in assets remain on ZKsync Lite, including substantial holdings of stablecoins, ETH, and BTC. The team has reminded users to proactively withdraw their assets before the deadline. Although assets can still be claimed afterward, the process will become more complex.

Polymarket Insider Scandal: Insiders Profit Over $1 Million

An investigation by blockchain analyst ZachXBT has sparked insider trading allegations against prediction market Polymarket. Data shows that eight of the top ten profitable addresses in relevant markets were identified as insiders, collectively profiting over $1.2 million using non-public information.

In contrast, more than 50 ordinary addresses suffered losses ranging from $10,000 to $100,000. The incident highlights the tension between transparency and potential abuse within decentralized finance platforms, raising compliance concerns for prediction markets.

Vitalik Releases Ethereum “Strawmap” Scaling Roadmap

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin detailed Ethereum’s new scaling roadmap on X this week, dividing it into short-term and long-term phases.

The short-term focus centers on the “Glamsterdam” upgrade, introducing a multi-dimensional gas mechanism to optimize costs. The long-term plan relies on continuous iteration of ZK-EVM and Blob data capacity, aiming to achieve data processing throughput of approximately 8MB per second.

This framework, known as “Strawmap,” has received support from the Ethereum Foundation and aims to shorten block times and enhance finality, preparing for the next wave of applications, particularly AI agents.

Tether’s Valuation Reportedly Reaches $375 Billion

According to Forbes, stablecoin issuer Tether’s valuation in the secondary market has reached between $350 billion and $375 billion, with even conservative estimates at $200 billion.

Based on this valuation, Tether CFO Giancarlo Devasini could surpass Warren Buffett in personal wealth, potentially ranking among the world’s top ten richest individuals. This remarkable figure underscores the extraordinary profitability of the stablecoin business and its central role in crypto finance.

OpenAI Secures $110 Billion in Funding, Strengthening the AI–Crypto Integration Narrative

OpenAI announced this week that it has secured $110 billion in new funding, valuing the company at $730 billion, with SoftBank, Nvidia, and Amazon participating.

Meanwhile, Stripe’s co-founder stated that the combination of stablecoins and artificial intelligence could give rise to an “agent economy.” Analysts point out that AI agents — software that autonomously executes tasks — require low-cost, instant payment methods.

This positions stablecoin payments on Solana or Ethereum Layer 2 as critical infrastructure, and the AI–crypto integration narrative is becoming a new market focus.

The UK Advances Crypto Gaming Payments, Hong Kong Pilots RWA Tokenization

Regulatory and asset tokenization developments also progressed significantly this week.

The UK Gambling Commission is assessing the feasibility of allowing consumers to use cryptocurrencies for online betting, aligning with the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) digital asset regulatory framework, which aims to channel betting activity through compliant mechanisms.

Meanwhile, Cardone Capital announced a $5 billion real estate tokenization plan, placing its multi-family residential and commercial real estate assets in the US on the blockchain. Consulting firm Deloitte predicts that the global real estate tokenization market could reach $4 trillion by 2035.

Macroeconomic News

On February 26, initial US jobless claims for the week ending February 21 came in at 212,000, below the expected 215,000. The previous week’s figure was revised upward from 206,000 to 208,000.
On February 28, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March was 6.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 93.3%.

The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through April was 75.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut was 23.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut was 1.3%.

ETFs

According to statistics, from February 23rd to February 27th, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $787.5 million; as of February 27th, GBTC (Grayscale) experienced a total outflow of $25.828 billion, currently holding $10.289 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $49.903 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $85.825 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $80.3 million.

Looking to the Future Industry Conference

EthCC 9 will be held in Cannes, France from March 30th to April 2nd, 2026. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of Europe's largest and longest-running annual Ethereum events, focusing on technology and community development.
Web3 Carnival Hong Kong 2026 will be held in Hong Kong, China, from April 20th to 23rd, 2026.
TOKEN2049 Dubai 2026 will be held in Dubai, UAE, from April 29th to 30th, 2026.

Project Progress

Gemini's customer accounts in the UK, EEA, and Australia will enter a withdrawal-only mode from March 5th and will be officially closed from April 6th.

Important Events

March 4th, 21:15: US will release February ADP employment figures (in thousands);
March 5th, 21:30: US will release initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28th (in thousands);
March 6th, 21:30: US will release the February unemployment rate.

Token Unlocking

Jupiter (JUP) will unlock 254 million tokens on February 28th, worth approximately $38.6 million, representing 7.94% of the circulating supply;
Sui (SUI) will unlock 43.36 million tokens on March 1st, worth approximately $38.38 million, representing 1.13% of the circulating supply;
EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 36.82 million tokens on March 1st, worth approximately $6.82 million, representing 8.15% of the circulating supply;
Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on March 2nd, worth approximately $4.14 million, representing 0.53% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of the Hotcoin exchange, is committed to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for your investment decisions. We analyze market trends for you through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Research Reports"; and with our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers will also host live streams to provide face-to-face analysis of hot topics and trend predictions. We believe that warm support and professional guidance can help more investors navigate market cycles and seize the valuable opportunities of Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment inherently carries risk. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

Website：https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch

X： x.com/HotcoinAcademy

Mail：labs@hotcoin.com

Mục lục

Crypto Market Performance
Understanding the Present & Reviewing the Week's Major Events
Macroeconomic News
ETFs
Looking to the Future Industry Conference
Project Progress
Important Events
Token Unlocking
About Us
Risk Warning

Đề xuất đọc

Xem thêm

The "Never Sell Bitcoin" Myth Shattered Hotcoin Research | June 29-July 3, 2026

Weekly Insights

Whoever Wins Memes, Wins the Bull Market | Hotcoin Research Market Insights: November 11-15, 2024

Weekly Insights

Hotcoin Investment and Financing Weekly Report (12.14-12.20) | 29 Public Events, Funding Data Remains Steady

Weekly Insights