The "Never Sell Bitcoin" Myth Shattered Hotcoin Research | June 29-July 3, 2026

Weekly Insights

Atualizar2026-07-12

8.9K

Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.15 trillion, with BTC accounting for 57.9% at $1.24 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $311.3 billion, down 1% over the last 7 days, with USDT accounting for 59.11%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen, while a small number have fallen. Specifically: BTC rose 4.03% over the last 7 days, ETH rose 11.16%, SOL rose 15.28%, HYPE rose 10.01%, and M rose 82.13%.

Market Outlook (June 29–July 3):

RSI Index: 57.18 (Neutral, higher than last week), Fear & Greed Index: 22 (Fear), Altcoin Season Index: 56 (Neutral)

BTC: $53,000–63,000 ($53,000 is considered the on-chain valuation floor)

ETH: $1,400–1,750 ($1,400 represents the institutional bear-case scenario)

SOL: $76–85

One technical signal worth watching is that the market may be entering a bottoming phase.

BTC, ETH, and SOL have all flashed TD Sequential buy signals on the monthly chart. Historically, such synchronized signals have often appeared near major cycle lows, suggesting that selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion. In addition, this week's (June 29–July 3) rebound was largely driven by a short squeeze triggered by weaker-than-expected employment data, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve is less likely to raise interest rates. ETH and SOL briefly outperformed BTC during the rally.

Risks to Watch

Massive release of existing holdings on exchanges carries the risk of a "one-time sell-off."
Positive macro catalysts may already be fully priced in, increasing the risk of a post-release market pullback.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced it will sell $1.25 billion worth of BTC, marking its first shift to a "sell" strategy in over four years.

Market Highlights

Large-Scale Institutional Activity: Over 110,000 Dormant BTC Moved On-Chain

Since June 29, over 113,000 Bitcoins (approximately $6.97 billion) have been moved on-chain, all of which had remained inactive for more than three months. Approximately 23,000 BTC came from "long-dormant" addresses that had been inactive for over 2 years. The market widely speculates that this is a large institution undergoing internal restructuring or wallet consolidation. Such movements of "old" Bitcoins are typically seen as a key signal affecting short-term market liquidity.

Bitcoin ETFs Record a Historic $4.1 Billion Monthly Outflow

In June, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $4.1 billion, marking the largest monthly outflow since their launch in January 2024, completely erasing key support from institutional demand. On June 29 alone, a net outflow of $231 million occurred, marking the eighth consecutive trading day of capital flight. BlackRock's IBIT was the hardest hit, accounting for approximately $3 billion in outflows.

ETF Selling Pressure Creates a $4.4 Billion Supply Surplus

The massive redemptions from ETFs have created a severe supply-demand imbalance in the market. In June, ETFs saw net sales of approximately 71,600 BTC, with miners adding approximately 450 BTC daily, while corporate treasuries increased their holdings by only 7,500 BTC, creating a supply surplus of approximately $4.4 billion.

Whale Activity Diverges as Mid-Sized Holders Accelerate Selling

On-chain data shows a divergence among whale groups of different sizes. Mid-sized whales holding 100-1,000 BTC sold 55,312 BTC in 60 days, marking the strongest sell-off during the period. While mega-whales holding 1,000-10,000 BTC continued to accumulate, their pace of buying slowed by 29% compared to two weeks ago.

Bitcoin Holds Above $60,000 as Ethereum Records Its Longest Quarterly Losing Streak

Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 on June 29 before rebounding above $61,000 in early July. Ethereum fared even worse, recording its longest streak of quarterly declines on record, with the price hovering around $1,570 near multi-month lows.

Large Exchange Inflows Signal Rising Market Volatility

On June 30, Bitcoin exchanges saw a surge in daily inflows of 49,000 BTC, while Ethereum inflows exceeded 1.25 million ETH, both of which were at extreme highs since 2026. Historically, this type of data often foreshadows significant directional market shifts, with whales moving tokens onto exchanges, which is widely viewed as a precursor to potential selling.

Altcoins Rally in a $200 Million Short Squeeze

During Bitcoin's sideways movement, a short squeeze occurred, liquidating $199.87 million and leaving short sellers with a $122.9 million loss. This fueled a brief double-digit rebound in some altcoins, but since Bitcoin failed to hold above $60,000, the market generally questions the sustainability of this rebound.

Strategy Launches Its BTC Monetization Program

As the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, Strategy announced its BTC Monetization Program on June 29, authorizing the sale of up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin. This move marks a significant shift from founder Michael Saylor's long-standing "never sell" stance, aimed at raising funds for stock buybacks and preferred stock dividend payments.

Metaplanet Adds to Its BTC Holdings as Robinhood Launches an L2 Network

Despite extreme market panic, some institutions chose to increase their holdings against the trend. Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced this week that it has increased its holdings by 2,823 BTC. Meanwhile, Robinhood launched "Robinhood Chain," an Ethereum Layer 2 chain based on Arbitrum, focusing on the RWA (Real-World Asset) tokenization track.

Fear & Greed Index Falls Into Extreme Fear

Hit by both macro headwinds (hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, fund rotation into semiconductor stocks) and internal selling pressure, the cryptocurrency fear & greed index fell to 16 on June 30, entering the "extreme fear" zone. Data from prediction market Kalshi shows that traders have priced in Bitcoin potentially falling to $45,000 by the end of 2026.

Macro Update

On July 1, U.S. ADP employment figures for June were 98,000, below the expected 118,000.
On July 2, the U.S. June unemployment rate was 4.2%, below the expected 4.30% and the previous value of 4.30%.
On July 2, the U.S. June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 57,000, below the expected 110,000 and the previous figure, revised from 172,000 to 129,000.
On July 3, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged in July is currently 82.3%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 17.7%.

Looking Ahead

Industry Conferences

WebX 2026 will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from July 13 to 14, 2026.
Bitcoin Hong Kong will be held in Hong Kong, China, from August 27 to 28, 2026.
Canada Blockchain Week 2026 will be held in Toronto, Canada, from July 20 to 26.

Key Events

Malta's financial regulator is exploring bringing certain DeFi businesses under its regulatory purview; the deadline for submitting discussion documents is July 10.
At 20:30 on July 9, the US will release initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending July 4.
At 02:00 on July 9, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.

Project Updates

The next holder call for GRASS token holders and network participants will be held on July 7. The call will provide an overview of the Grass network's progress, development roadmap, business milestones, growth highlights, etc.
Berachain will undergo a PoL Next upgrade on July 7, during which the BGT token will be deprecated.
LayerZero will upgrade its default DVN configuration to 3-of-3 on July 9 and plans to deprecate the v1 Relayer. This change will only affect applications using the default settings and is expected to cause a brief outage of approximately 15 minutes.

Token Unlocks

Opinion (OPN) will unlock 32 million tokens on July 5, worth approximately $2.08 million, representing 9.82% of the circulating supply.
IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 12.38 million tokens on July 8, worth approximately $483,000, representing 0.31% of the circulating supply.
Movement (MOVE) will unlock 4.63 million tokens on July 9, worth approximately $1.99 million, representing 4.3% of the circulating supply.
Babylon (BABY) will unlock 133 million tokens on July 10, worth approximately $1.87 million, representing 6.11% of the circulating supply.
Linea (LINEA) will unlock 1.08 billion tokens on July 10, worth approximately $2.65 million, representing 3.63% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to turning professional crypto analysis into actionable market insights. Through our Weekly Insights and In-depth Research Reports, we break down market dynamics and spotlight emerging opportunities. With Hotcoin Elite Picks—our exclusive dual-screening process powered by both AI and human expertise—we help identify high-potential assets while minimizing trial-and-error costs.

We also engage with the community through weekly livestreams, decoding market hot topics, and forecasting key trends. Our goal is to empower investors of all levels to navigate cycles with confidence and capture long-term opportunities in Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment inherently carries risk. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to protect their capital.

Website: https://www.hotcoin.com/r/Hotcoinresearch

X: x.com/HotcoinAcademy

Email: labs@hotcoin.com

Índice

Market Highlights
Macro Update
Looking Ahead
Industry Conferences
Key Events
Project Updates
Token Unlocks
About Us
Risk Warning

Leitura recomendada

Veja mais

Hotcoin Investment and Financing Weekly Report (10.05-10.11) | 17 Events, Financing Data Remains Steady Compared to Last Week

Weekly Insights

Hotcoin Investment and Financing Weekly Report (8.24-8.30) | A total of 27 publicly disclosed investment and financing events

Weekly Insights

“Death Cross” Meets “Extreme Fear”: Where Is the Crypto Market Headed? Hotcoin Research | June 15–19, 2026

Weekly Insights