RSI at 94.2: How Much Fuel Is Left in the Crypto Market After the Surge? Hotcoin Research | August 24-28, 2026

Crypto Market Performance

• Extreme overbought conditions raise the risk of a near-term pullback. Following the sharp rally, the 4-hour and daily RSI readings of nearly all major cryptocurrencies have moved into extremely overbought territory, with BTC's 4-hour RSI at 89.9 and ETH's at 94.2. Historically, technical conditions this overheated have often been followed by short-term pullbacks. At the same time, several macro signals, including weaker U.S. tech stocks, a stronger dollar, and rising oil prices, remain bearish and diverge from the crypto rally. Such a divergence may be difficult to sustain.
• Short-squeeze "fuel" is running out, while spot demand may struggle to take over. The latest rally has been driven primarily by forced short liquidations rather than a broad-based influx of new capital, with short positions accounting for 94% of liquidations within a 24-hour period. The U.S. spot premium remains negative at -0.024%, suggesting that genuine spot demand has yet to provide strong support. Stablecoin transfers to exchanges have also slowed, while the sustainability of institutional inflows remains uncertain. Once the liquidation wave subsides, buying momentum could weaken quickly.
• Zcash's surge raises concerns over a potential Bitcoin correction. CryptoQuant analysts noted that Zcash surged 70% within several days, pushing its derivatives market into extreme territory. Historically, similar conditions have often preceded Bitcoin corrections. ZEC futures open interest currently represents more than 11% of its market capitalization. If forced liquidations occur, they could trigger a chain reaction across major platforms and push market participants toward a more risk-off stance. This signal warrants close attention.

Market Highlights

1. Bitcoin Surpasses $80,000, Marking Strongest Weekly Gain in Nearly Three Years

1. Crypto ETFs See Over $2.6 Billion Inflow in a Single Week, Institutional Funds Accelerate Return

1. Stablecoin Supply Surges, On-Chain Liquidity Improves Significantly

1. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference Opens, Crypto Featured as Official Topic for the First Time

1. SEC Submits Crypto Custody Reform Proposal to the White House

1. SEC Previously Proposed a New Framework for "Crypto Asset Regulatory Rules"

1. The CLARITY Act's legislative process was delayed until September.

1. Polish exchange Zondacrypto collapses, founder and CEO disappear.

1. Coldcard Hardware Wallet Vulnerability Continues to Spread, Leading to $116 Million Theft

1. Term Labs Suffers Governance Vulnerability Attack, Losing $8.5 Million

Macro Update

• On August 26th, the US July core PCE price index annual rate was 3.3%, below the expected 3.30% and the previous value of 3.30%. The US core PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month in July, below the expected 0.20% and the previous value of 0.10%.
• At 22:30 on August 26, the US will release the EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending August 21, showing 95,000 barrels, below the expected 597,000 and the previous value of 4,405,000.
• At 20:30 on August 27, the US will release the initial jobless claims data for the week ending August 22, showing 203,000, below the expected 208,000 and the previous value of 207,000.
• On August 28, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in September is currently 64.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 35%.

Looking Ahead

Industry Conferences

• NFT NYC 2026 will be held in New York, USA, from September 1 to 3, 2026.
• The Shanghai International Blockchain Week will be held in September 2026. The 12th Global Blockchain Summit, hosted by Wanxiang Blockchain Labs, will kick off the week on September 23rd at the Grand Ballroom of the Hyatt on the Bund Shanghai as its core event.
• ETH Taipei 2026 will be held in Taipei from September 13th to 15th.
• KBW2026 will be held in Seoul, South Korea from September 29th to October 1st.

Key Events

• Russia's "Law on Digital Currency and Digital Rights" is expected to take effect on September 1st this year. It will establish a licensing system for cryptocurrency trading, custody, digital currency to fiat currency exchange, and cross-border settlement. The annual trading limit for non-qualified investors will be approximately 300,000 rubles (approximately US$3,800).
• Vietnam's administrative penalty decree for cryptocurrency violations will officially take effect on September 1st.
• At 20:15 on September 2nd, the US will release its ADP employment figures (in thousands) for August.
• At 22:30 on September 2nd, the US will release the EIA crude oil inventory data (in thousands of barrels) for the week ending August 28th
• At 20:30 on September 3rd, the US will release the initial jobless claims data (in thousands) for the week ending August 29th.
• At 20:30 on September 4th, the US will release the August unemployment rate.
• At 20:30 on September 4th, the US will release the August seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls data (in thousands)

Project Updates

• Franklin Templeton has applied to launch an ETF that automatically reinvests dividends in Bitcoin, expected to take effect as early as September 1st, 2026.
• CUDIS Ring holders' airdrop unlock date is September 3rd, 2025, requiring 56,000 points in the CUDIS application.
• Crypto payment platform Cypher has been acquired by cross-border payment giant Nium; the platform will continue operating until September 6th.

Token Unlocks

• Zora (ZORA) will unlock 166 million tokens on August 30th, worth approximately $1.03 million, representing 3.13% of the circulating supply
• GoPlus Security (GPS) will unlock 166 million tokens on September 1st, worth approximately $1.59 million, representing 3.12% of the circulating supply.
• Sui (SUI) will unlock 13.54 million tokens on September 1st, worth approximately $10.17 million, representing 0.33% of the circulating supply.
• EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 36.82 million tokens on September 1st, worth approximately $7.37 million, representing 5.48% of the circulating supply.
• Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on September 2nd, worth approximately $5.86 million, representing 0.46% of the circulating supply. - Opinion (OPN) will unlock 39.24 million tokens on September 5th, worth approximately $2.08 million, representing 10.04% of the circulating supply.
• Hyper Liquid (HYPE) will unlock 9.96 million tokens on September 6th, worth approximately $806 million, representing 2.37% of the circulating supply.

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