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Gold Hit a New High, Then Retreated; BTC Broke Below a Key Moving Average, Signaling a Split in Market Logic Hotcoin Research | January 26-30, 2026

Weekly Insights

Atualizar2026-02-02

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Crypto Market Performance

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at $2.8 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 59.2% of the total, or approximately $1.65 trillion. The total market capitalization of stablecoins is $305.8 billion, a 0.99% decrease over the past seven days, with USDT accounting for 60.59% of the total.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most tokens declined, with only a small number posting gains. Over the past seven days, BTC fell 7.44%, ETH declined 10.91%, and SOL dropped 8.68%, while HYPE rose 29.78% and SENT surged 40.03%.

During the week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $1.487 billion, while US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of $327.5 million.

Market Forecast (February 2–February 8)

The RSI stands at 35.17, indicating a weak technical zone. The Fear and Greed Index is at 21, remaining in fear territory, while the Altcoins Index is at 41, slightly higher than last week.

This week, gold, silver, and BTC surged sharply ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision, only to pull back rapidly. The market is at a highly sensitive inflection point, with technical signals and macroeconomic forces deeply intertwined. Any outlook should be treated as a probability-based test of key levels, rather than a definitive directional path.

Investors should closely monitor the following three indicators:

Technical Lifeline: BTC’s 50-Week Moving Average

This remains the most closely watched technical level. If Bitcoin can consistently close above the 50-week moving average for two to three consecutive weeks, the short-term downtrend may reverse. Failure to reclaim this level would likely increase downside pressure.

Funding Indicator: US Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows

ETF flows provide a clear view into institutional sentiment. Last week’s institutional outflows weighed heavily on market performance. A sustained return to net inflows would offer meaningful support to prices.

Macroeconomic Environment: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations

Following the latest Federal Reserve meeting, shifts in market expectations regarding the future path of interest rates will continue to influence all risk assets. Any new commentary or data related to rates could trigger heightened volatility.

Current Events

On January 26, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group arrived in the Middle East, pushing spot gold above $5,000 per ounce for the first time in history
On January 26, according to the Seoul Economic Daily, Cha Myung-hoon, major shareholder and chairman of the South Korean exchange Coinone, is considering selling part of his stake. He controls 53.44% of shares through personal holdings and The One Group, with Coinone confirming discussions around equity investment and overseas cooperation
On January 30, geopolitical tensions escalated rapidly as the US deployed additional warships to the Middle East
On January 30, the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act (CLARITY Act) passed the Senate Agriculture Committee, further widening the divide between Democrats and Republicans
On January 29, Citrea, a Bitcoin ZK-rollup backed by Founders Fund and Galaxy Ventures, officially launched its mainnet, introducing DeFi lending, structured products, and the BTC-backed stablecoin ctUSD
On January 30, Binance announced it would gradually convert $1 billion of its stablecoin reserves into Bitcoin, with plans to restore reserves if market capitalization falls below $800 million
Reports surfaced suggesting Tether has accumulated 140 tons of gold, fueling speculation around its role in the recent surge in gold prices
On January 29, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated in a CNBC interview that it is “time to allow” crypto assets in 401(k) retirement allocations, reigniting discussion around mainstream adoption
On January 30, Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he would nominate former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as Chairman of the Federal Reserve

Macroeconomics

On January 28 at 22:45, the Bank of Canada announced it would maintain its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%
On January 29 at 03:00, the Federal Reserve announced it would hold its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%
Initial US jobless claims for the week ending January 24 came in at 209,000, above expectations of 205,000
According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by March stands at 15.3%, while expectations for unchanged rates remain dominant through April and May

ETF Flow Update

From January 26 to January 30, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $1.487 billion. As of January 30, GBTC has recorded cumulative outflows of $25.658 billion and currently holds $13.366 billion in assets, while IBIT holds $65.095 billion. Total U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF market capitalization is $111.691 billion.

U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $327.5 million during the same period.

Foreseeing the Future

Industry Conferences

Consensus Hong Kong 2026 will take place from February 11 to 12
ETHDenver 2026 will be held in Denver from February 17 to 21
EthCC 9 will be held in Cannes from March 30 to April 2, focusing on Ethereum technology and community development

Project Progress

Aster will launch its sixth airdrop event, Convergence, from February 2 to March 29, distributing approximately 0.8% of the total supply
MagicBlock will launch its BLOCK token presale on February 5
In its Series B round, Berachain granted Brevan Howard’s Nova Digital Fund a special refund clause, raising regulatory concerns among crypto legal experts

Key Events to Watch

Hong Kong’s SFC requires licensed virtual asset institutions to transition to the new Suspicious Transaction Reporting System by February 2
On February 4, the US will release January ADP employment data
On February 5, the UK will announce its central bank interest rate decision
On February 5, the Eurozone will release the ECB Deposit Facility rate
On February 6, the US will publish initial jobless claims and unemployment data

Token Unlocking

Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on February 2
XDC Network (XDC) will unlock 840 million tokens on February 5
Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock 9.92 million tokens on February 6
Bouncebit (BB) will unlock 29.77 million tokens on February 7

About Us

Hotcoin Research is the core research arm of the Hotcoin exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical investment insights. Through Weekly Insights, In-Depth Research Reports, and our proprietary AI-powered Hotcoin Selection framework with expert screening, we help investors identify opportunities while reducing trial-and-error costs.

Each week, our research team delivers forward-looking analysis of trending topics and evolving market cycles, supporting investors as they navigate the opportunities emerging across Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and carries inherent risk. Investors should fully understand these risks and operate within a strict risk-management framework to help safeguard their capital.