BTC Breaks Below the 75K Psychological Level: Where Is the Next Liquidity Support? Hotcoin Research | May 18-22, 2026

Weekly Insights

Atualizar2026-08-21

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Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.58 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60%, at $1.54 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $322.9 billion, an increase of 0.15% in the last 7 days, of which USDT accounts for 58.71%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most assets declined, while only a handful posted gains. Specifically, BTC declined 4.32% over the past 7 days, ETH fell 6.1%, SOL dropped 5.1%, while HYPE and NEAR gained 23.75% and 42.13%, respectively.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $1.256 billion; US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of $216 million.

Market Forecast (May 25–31):

The RSI index stands at 54.2 (neutral, higher than last week), the Fear & Greed index is 27 (fear), and the Altcoin Season index is 40 (neutral).

BTC: $73,000–80,000 (Range-bound trading, testing key support)

ETH: $1,900–2,326 (Remaining defensive below key moving averages)

SOL: $80–92 (Weak consolidation amid thin liquidity)

Risk Factors to Watch:

Macroeconomic "Black Swan" Events: Escalation of geopolitical conflicts (such as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz) or continued rise in oil prices could trigger another round of risk-off selling.
Support Level Breach: If BTC decisively breaks below $73,000, the short-term bullish structure could weaken further and trigger technical selling pressure.

Market Highlights

CLARITY Bill Passes Committee, Marking a Major Milestone for Crypto Regulation

On May 14, the US Senate Banking Committee formally passed the CLARITY Bill with a bipartisan vote of 15 in favor and 9 against. This is the first time in US Congressional history that legislation on a complete crypto market structure has been voted on at the committee level, marking the end of nearly a decade of regulatory "gray areas" for the crypto industry. The bill, which aims to clarify the division of regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, was previously passed by the House of Representatives in July 2025. The Trump administration has set July 4 as the target date for legislative completion.

CPI and PPI Surge Above Expectations, Reversing Rate-Cut Outlook

The macro backdrop has shifted significantly. April's CPI jumped to 3.8% year-on-year (the highest since the fall of 2023), and April's PPI surged to 6.0% year-on-year, far exceeding all economists' expectations. Core PPI saw its largest increase in over three years. The unexpected rise in inflation, coupled with energy costs driven up by geopolitical conflicts, has fundamentally changed the Fed's monetary policy path—the CME's implied probability of a Fed rate hike in December 2026 has surged from about 2% a month ago to about 28%, and the 30-year Treasury yield has returned to the 5% mark.

Bitcoin ETFs See Historic Selling Pressure With Nearly $1 Billion in Weekly Outflows

The six-week inflow streak for Bitcoin spot ETFs officially reversed this week. In the five trading days ending May 15, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows totaling approximately $996 million to $1 billion. The largest single-day net outflow was $635 million on May 13, marking the largest single-day net outflow since 2026. Ethereum spot ETFs also recorded their eighth consecutive day of net outflows.

Bitcoin Falls 5.5% Below $77,000 While Ethereum Hits a Two-Month Low

Bitcoin retreated from above $82,000 in early May, falling below $77,000 on May 19, a weekly drop of approximately 5.5%, briefly approaching $76,500. Ethereum weakened simultaneously to around $2,100, a weekly drop of 8.2%, its lowest level since April 7. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 28 on May 22, indicating extreme market fear.

Stablecoin Market Cap Surpasses $320 Billion as USDC Supply Continues to Expand

The stablecoin market continued its moderate expansion trend, with the global stablecoin market capitalization officially surpassing the $320 billion mark. USDT's market capitalization is approximately $189.6 billion (about 60%), while USDC's is approximately $77-78 billion (about 24-25%). On May 19, the USDC Treasury issued 250 million new USDC tokens on the Ethereum network in a single transaction. Yield-bearing stablecoins are becoming the fastest-growing segment.

HYPE Emerges as an Institutional Favorite Amid Aggressive Accumulation

Amidst continuous outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum, Hyperliquid (HYPE) emerged as this week’s strongest market narrative. Grayscale-linked wallets accumulated and staked 510,387 HYPE tokens (approximately $24.95 million) over the past week; a16z withdrew 259,700 HYPE tokens (approximately $13.29 million) from exchanges within 24 hours; and Galaxy Digital-linked wallets bought 158,100 HYPE tokens (approximately $8.8 million) within two hours. The HYPE spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $25.46 million in a single day.

Binance Sees $2.2 Billion in Coordinated Selling Pressure, Signaling Institutional De-Risking

On May 15, taker selling on Binance surged to $1.5 billion, with another $1.1 billion in selling after Bitcoin fell below $77,000; Ethereum also saw a peak selling volume of $1.1 billion during the same period. Analysis indicates that this synchronized selling pressure pattern between Bitcoin and Ethereum suggests coordinated institutional de-risking activity, rather than natural selling by retail investors.

Geopolitical Risks Push Oil Prices to $112, Reinforcing Inflation Pressures

With no substantial progress in US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, Brent crude rose above $110 per barrel on May 18, and WTI crude broke through $107 per barrel, the highest level since May. Higher oil prices continue to feed into core inflation through transportation costs, further strengthening expectations of a Fed tightening policy. Analysts point out that if a ceasefire agreement is reached in the Middle East, it could be the "best trigger" for a recovery in the crypto market.

SpaceX Discloses 18,712 BTC Holdings and Files for IPO

A major development in enterprise adoption: SpaceX disclosed that it holds 18,712 BTC and has officially filed for an IPO with the SEC. The move is seen as another major signal of deeper integration between traditional enterprises and crypto assets. In addition, 1789 Capital, led by Trump's son, has seen its assets under management grow 17-fold to $3.5 billion in one year, focusing on AI, defense, and America-first investments.

Hong Kong Issues Its 13th VASP License as Asian Regulatory Developments Continue

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) issued the 13th Virtual Asset Trading Platform (VASP) license to NewBX (Bixin). Meanwhile, Cambodian police raided Prince Square in Phnom Penh, detaining over 100 people suspected of telecom fraud (including 82 Chinese citizens), the case related to the frozen assets of Chen Zhi. In China, Ningbo Customs cracked a mining machine smuggling case, seizing over 400 mining machines.

Macro Updates

On May 21, initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 16 were 209,000, slightly lower than the expected 210,000 and the previous week's 211,000.
On May 22, the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May was 44.8, below the expected 48.2 and the previous reading of 48.2.
On May 22, according to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in June is 97.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.1%.

ETFs

According to statistics, from May 18 to May 22, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.256 billion; as of May 22, GBTC (Grayscale) has recorded total outflows of $26.356 billion and now holds $11.264 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $61.943 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $102.246 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $216 million.

Looking Ahead

Istanbul Blockchain Week 2026 will be held in Turkey from June 2 to 3.
IVS2026 KYOTO will be held in Kyoto, Japan from July 1 to 3, 2026.
WebX 2026 will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from July 13 to 14, 2026.

Project Updates

The on-chain identity project Phi will cease operations on May 25.
Members of the Korea Digital Asset Association (DAXA) will delist the RESOLV spot trading pair on May 26.
Leap Wallet will discontinue services on May 28; users are advised to complete migration before then.
The DEX Tapp Exchange on Aptos will shut down at the end of the month; users must withdraw their assets before May 31.
Optimism will cease support for op-geth and op-program on May 31. Chain operators must complete their migration during the Karst hard fork; otherwise, chains still running op-geth will not be able to follow the main chain. Cannon-kona can run in the existing op-node environment without using kona-node; kona-node is an optional component. Node operators should migrate to op-reth as soon as possible to maintain network compatibility and access new feature support.
Crypto media DL News will suspend operations at the end of this month.

Key Events

At 20:30 on May 28, the US will release the initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending May 23rd.
At 20:30 on May 28, the US will release the April core PCE price index year-on-year rate.

Token Unlocks

Humanity (H) will unlock 105 million tokens on May 25, worth approximately $23.27 million, representing 3.86% of the circulating supply.
AltLayer (ALT) will unlock 240 million tokens on May 25, worth approximately $1.83 million, representing 3.9% of the circulating supply.
Plasma (XPL) will unlock 88.89 million tokens on May 25, worth approximately $7.89 million, representing 3.69% of the circulating supply.
Sahara AI (SAHARA) will unlock 133 million tokens on May 26, worth approximately $4.79 million, representing 4.06% of the circulating supply.
Huma Finance (HUMA) will unlock 450 million tokens on May 26, worth approximately $10.78 million, representing 20.04% of the circulating supply.
Zora (ZORA) will unlock 172 million tokens on May 30, worth approximately $1.9 million, representing 3.45% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of the Hotcoin exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for your investment decisions. We analyze market trends through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Research Reports"; and with our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers will also engage with you face-to-face via live stream, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the valuable opportunities of Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment inherently carries risk. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch

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Mail: labs@hotcoin.com

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Crypto Market Performance
Market Highlights
Macro Updates
ETFs
Looking Ahead
Project Updates
Key Events
Token Unlocks
About Us
Risk Warning

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