US Stock Market Report
Hotcoin TradFi Daily Asset Report (September 20, 2026)
Author kim
U.S. stocks ended the week with mixed performance: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged higher on Friday, while the Dow fell and the VIX declined further. Today is Sunday, so we are focusing on reviewing recent trading-day performance, observing weekend volatility on the Hotcoin platform, and preparing for next week’s market events.
U.S. Market Overview: Mixed Index Performance, VIX Falls to 14.81
On September 18, the S&P 500 rose 0.17%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.39%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.18%. The VIX declined from 15.44 to 14.81, down 0.63 points, or 4.08%.
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Indicator
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September 18 Close
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Change from Previous Close
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|---|---|---|
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S&P 500 Index
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7,650.50
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+0.17%
|
|
Nasdaq Composite Index
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26,522.55
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+0.39%
|
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Dow Jones Industrial Average
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51,682.64
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−0.18%
|
|
VIX Volatility Index
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14.81
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−4.08%
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For the full week, the S&P 500 fell approximately 0.1%, the Dow fell approximately 1.7%, and the Nasdaq rose approximately 0.7%. This indicates that the rebound since Thursday did not strengthen all major indexes in tandem. Most stocks still fell on Friday, highlighting a divergence between resilience at the index level and the performance of the broader group of individual stocks.
Hotcoin Watch:The decline in the VIX means that implied volatility expectations in the options market have eased; it does not mean that all assets are rising. What is more important to watch now is whether gains can broaden to more sectors, rather than concluding that the market has fully strengthened merely because an individual index closed higher.
Interest Rates and Oil Prices: Why Has Divergence Persisted Even as Sentiment Eased?
On Friday, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose to 5.00%, while oil prices fluctuated. For the stock market, higher yields mean that valuations face a higher discount rate, and they also affect corporate financing costs and household borrowing costs.
Our view is that the market is currently trading on two factors at the same time: on the one hand, some uncertainty has diminished after the policy decision was finalized; on the other hand, interest rates and energy costs have not lost their influence as a result. This helps explain why a falling VIX, a rising Nasdaq, and declines in most individual stocks can occur simultaneously.
Looking ahead to next week, if bond yields continue to rise, it will be important to observe whether growth stocks can maintain their relative strength. If yields stabilize, we can further observe whether buying can spread to sectors that were previously weaker. This is a direction for subsequent confirmation, not a preemptive conclusion about the opening trend.
Hotcoin TradFi Key Asset Volatility: Weekend Platform Market Conditions
As of 17:20:23 Beijing time, BMNRB/USDT, CRCLB/USDT, and MSTRB/USDT recorded relatively notable 24-hour declines among the valid samples for this report, while AAOIB/USDT rose 2.20%. The table below is filtered by the absolute value of the percentage change and retains the direction of the change.
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Spot Trading Pair
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Latest Price (USDT)
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24-Hour Change
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|---|---|---|
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BMNRB/USDT
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25.38
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−3.53%
|
|
CRCLB/USDT
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89.26
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−3.39%
|
|
MSTRB/USDT
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152.56
|
−3.06%
|
|
HOODB/USDT
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116.88
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−2.39%
|
|
AAOIB/USDT
|
104.97
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+2.20%
|
This edition covers 71 spot trading pairs that are active, categorized as U.S. stocks, and quoted in USDT. After excluding one lagging quote, the selection was made from 70 valid samples. Perpetual contracts and other categories are not included, so this does not represent the volatility ranking across the entire platform.
Weekend readings should be understood separately:These figures reflect the rolling 24-hour performance of the corresponding products on the platform. They are not the price changes at the Friday close of the underlying U.S. stocks, nor do they mean that U.S. stocks reopened on Sunday. Platform quote updates and the opening of the underlying securities market are two different things; this should not be taken to mean that all TradFi products support the same weekend trading arrangements.
Analysts’ views: How should policy certainty be balanced against financing costs?
Nathan Peterson｜Head of Derivatives Research and Strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research:In a pre-market comment on September 18, he took a relatively positive view, noting that consumers remained resilient despite the earlier rise in oil prices, and that although bond yields were elevated, they had not yet seen an uncontrolled surge.
Collin Martin｜Head of Fixed Income Research and Strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research:In a comment published the same day, he said that if rate hikes help stabilize inflation expectations, they could constrain long-term yields; consistency in policy implementation could also help build central bank credibility.
Our interpretation:Neither view means that “rate hikes are necessarily bullish for stocks.” The key question is whether policy can stabilize inflation expectations while avoiding putting greater pressure on the economy through financing costs. These comments were published before Friday’s market open and should not be treated as definitive predictions of Friday’s close or next week’s market performance.
Today’s schedule and next week’s event calendar
September 20 is Sunday, and the regular U.S. stock market is closed. This edition does not describe next week’s data as “due to be released tonight,” nor does it repeat events that already took place on Friday as pending releases. Today is focused mainly on review and observation. The next regular U.S. market open is September 21 at 09:30 ET, or September 21 at 21:30 Beijing time.
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Date and Eastern Time (ET)
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Beijing Time
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Events
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Focus areas
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|---|---|---|---|
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September 21, 09:30
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September 21, 21:30
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U.S. stock market regular trading session opens
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How weekend information is repriced
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September 22, 10:20
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September 22, 22:20
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Remarks by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson
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Modernizing the discount window and the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market
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September 23, 10:05
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September 23, 22:05
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Remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Barr on housing
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Housing affordability and related policy discussions
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|
September 24, 08:30
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September 24, 20:30
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U.S. Q2 international transactions and international investment position report
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Cross-border capital flows and external assets and liabilities
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Hotcoin Weekend Outlook: What to watch first next week?
1. Watch whether interest-rate pressures continue to be transmitted.After the market opens next week, comparing changes in bond yields with stock performance will help us understand valuation pressure better than looking at index gains and losses alone.
2. See whether the gains are becoming broader.If only a small number of large-cap stocks are strengthening while more individual stocks remain under pressure, rising indexes still cannot be equated with an overall improvement in the market.
3. See whether platform quotes and the underlying market are reconnecting.Changes in platform prices formed over the weekend should continue to be monitored after trading resumes in the underlying market. Rolling 24-hour gains and losses and the daily closing returns of U.S. stocks use different windows, and this distinction needs to be preserved when making comparisons.
The core conclusion of this edition is: expected volatility has declined, but market divergence has not disappeared. When observing global assets through Hotcoin TradFi, we will continue to interpret the macroeconomic backdrop, underlying-market performance, and platform product prices separately, focusing on the actual developments in the new week rather than directly extrapolating weekend readings into a Monday direction.
