Who's Selling? The Truth Behind $2 Billion in Outflows and Bitcoin's Critical Levels for Next Week Hotcoin Research | May 25–29, 2026

Weekly Insights

アップデート2026-08-21

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Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.47 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.6%, or $1.47 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $320.7 billion, a decrease of 0.68% in the last 7 days, with USDT accounting for 58.82%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small portion rose while the majority fell. Specifically: BTC fell 4.83% in 7 days, ETH fell 5.3%, SOL fell 5.6%, HYPE rose 4.95%, and XLM rose 42.25%.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $1.415 billion; US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of $240 million.

Market Forecast (June 1–7):

RSI index is 42.9 (neutral, lower than last week), Fear & Greed Index is 24 (fear), Altcoin Season Index is 36 (neutral).

BTC: $72,000-$76,500 (Slightly bearish)

ETH: $1,930-$2,100 (Weak consolidation)

SOL: $78-$86 (Neutral to weak)

Risk Factors to Watch:

Continued outflows from Bitcoin ETFs → Key level: $70,000
Post-expiry liquidation pressure from $7.5 billion in options → Key level: $75,000
Ceasefire uncertainty or renewed escalation → Key level: $71,700

Market Highlights

Bitcoin Falls Below $75,000 Due to a Double Whammy of Macroeconomic Headwinds and Geopolitical Conflicts

This week, the market experienced a comprehensive sell-off. Affected by the US April PCE price index climbing to 3.8% (far above the 2% target), market expectations for rate cuts this year have largely faded, and the probability of a rate hike has risen to 60%. Meanwhile, the US-Israel military action against Iran continues to escalate. Although a 60-day ceasefire framework agreement was announced on May 28, Trump has not yet signed it, and the situation remains unclear. Under multiple negative factors, Bitcoin broke through the $75,000 support level, hitting a low of approximately $72,600, a pullback of over 11% from this month's high and a 42% drop from its all-time high.

Bitcoin ETFs Experienced Historic Capital Outflows, With May Seeing Record Outflows

Institutional fund withdrawals were the core driver of this week's market decline. Data shows that US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of approximately $2.07 billion in May, marking the largest monthly outflow recorded in 2026. On May 27 alone, 11 ETFs experienced a net outflow of $733 million, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing a single-day outflow of $528 million, the second-largest withdrawal in the product's history. JPMorgan analysts argued that this was not a simple rotation of capital, but a sign that the broader debasement trade is unwinding.

DTCC Partners With Stellar in Landmark TradFi–Blockchain Integration

On May 27, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) announced plans to integrate its DTC tokenization service with the Stellar blockchain, expected to launch in the first half of 2027. This means that traditional assets such as stocks, ETFs, and US Treasury bonds will be able to be tokenized and traded on-chain. Stimulated by this news, Stellar (XLM) surged over 26% in a single day, becoming the strongest-performing mainstream cryptocurrency this week. The move marks the first direct integration between a major U.S. financial market infrastructure provider and a public blockchain network, and is widely regarded as a milestone for institutional adoption of blockchain technology.

CME Launches 24/7 Bitcoin Trading, Eliminating the Weekend Gap

On May 29, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched 24/7 trading for Bitcoin futures and options. This change eliminates the long-standing weekend gap in CME Bitcoin contracts, allowing institutional investors to manage risk and price exposure around the clock. Over time, it could help strengthen institutional participation and improve overall market efficiency.

Capital Rotates Into AI as NEAR and WLD Outperform

Amidst Bitcoin outflows, AI-related tokens have become the destination for capital migration. This week, tokens such as NEAR Protocol, Worldcoin (WLD), and Render (RNDR) experienced a collective surge. Analysts believe that capital flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs has not left the market, but has instead rotated into the AI and infrastructure sectors, which combine strong narrative momentum with greater upside potential at lower entry points. NEAR has seen an 85.67% increase over nearly 30 days, with its "chain abstraction" and AI agent layer narrative attracting significant attention.

$7.5 Billion in Options Contracts Expiry, Market Faces Gamma Squeeze

On May 29, the Deribit exchange saw approximately $7.5 billion worth of notional value crypto options expire, including $6.21 billion in Bitcoin options, with the biggest pain point at $75,000. Since the current Bitcoin price (approximately $72,700) is far below this pain point, many call options are at risk of expiring worthless, triggering a new round of Gamma squeeze and market-maker hedging pressure, further exacerbating downward market volatility.

VanEck Launches Spot BNB ETF, Crypto ETP Products Continue to Expand

Despite overall market sentiment being low, institutional product innovation has not stopped. Asset management firm VanEck launched a spot BNB ETF on Nasdaq, providing regulated exposure to BNB. Meanwhile, Deutsche Börse's Xetra platform also listed several crypto ETP products from institutions such as Amundi and Franklin Templeton on May 28.

UK Sanctions Crypto Exchanges for the First Time, Regulators Crack Down on Russian-Related Entities

On May 26, the UK government released a new round of sanctions against Russia, including crypto exchanges such as Huobi, Exmo, and Bitpapa, citing their alleged provision of financial services to sanctioned Russian entities. According to Elliptic analysis, this is the first time the UK has taken such sanction action against crypto exchanges under relevant regulations, marking a more direct approach by regulators to combat the use of crypto assets to circumvent sanctions.

China's Supreme People's Court to Study Judicial Standards for Virtual Asset Cases

At the regulatory level in China, the Supreme People's Court stated at a press conference on May 27 that it will conduct in-depth research on the rules for adjudicating new types of cases involving virtual currencies and cross-border finance, and will formulate judicial interpretations on civil compensation for insider trading and market manipulation as soon as possible. This statement demonstrates the systematic attention paid by the judiciary to legal issues related to crypto assets, aiming to provide clearer guidance for potential future judicial practice.

Google Engineer Charged in Polymarket Insider Trading Case

This week saw a high-profile ethical incident in the industry. A Google engineer was indicted for alleged insider trading on the prediction market Polymarket. This case highlights the legal challenges faced by the emerging field of prediction markets in terms of information asymmetry and fairness, and may also prompt regulators to further clarify compliance requirements for decentralized prediction platforms.

Macroeconomics

On May 28, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended May 23 came in at 215,000, above the forecast of 211,000 and the previous reading of 209,000.
On May 28, the U.S. core PCE inflation rate rose to 3.3% in April, in line with market expectations and up from 3.2% in the previous month. The reading marked its highest level since November 2023.
On May 27, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is currently 97.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 2.7%.

ETFs

According to statistics, from May 25 to May 29, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.415 billion; as of May 29, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $26.531 billion, with current holdings of $10.745 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $60.025 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $98.856 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETF net outflow: $240 million.

Looking Ahead

Industry Conferences

Istanbul Blockchain Week 2026 will be held in Turkey from June 2 to 3.
Proof of Talk 2026 will be held in Paris, France, from June 2 to 3, 2026.
IVS2026 KYOTO will be held in Kyoto, Japan, from July 1 to 3, 2026.
WebX 2026 will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from July 13 to 14, 2026.

Key Events

Florida's legislative proposal to allow state government funds and pension funds to allocate Bitcoin and related ETFs is scheduled to take effect on July 1, 2026.
The U.S. House Oversight Committee has launched an investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket regarding insider trading, requiring both companies to submit documents detailing their measures regarding identity verification, enforcement of geographic restrictions, and monitoring of unusual transactions. The deadline for submission is June 5.
SoftBank Group plans to issue ¥260 billion in subordinated bonds to raise funds, with pricing scheduled for June 5.

Token Unlocking

Sui (SUI) will unlock 14.35 million tokens on June 1, worth approximately $13.31 million, representing 0.36% of the circulating supply.
ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock 44.58 million tokens on June 1, worth approximately $2.14 million, representing 3.14% of the circulating supply.
EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 36.81 million tokens on June 1, worth approximately $8.1 million, representing 6.5% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, the core research arm of the Hotcoin exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for your investment decisions. We analyze market trends through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Research Reports"; and our exclusive column, "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), helps you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also host live streams to discuss hot topics and predict trends. We believe that warm support and professional guidance can help more investors navigate market cycles and seize the valuable opportunities of Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment inherently carries risk. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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Crypto Market Performance
Market Highlights
Macroeconomics
ETFs
Looking Ahead
Industry Conferences
Key Events
Token Unlocking
About Us
Risk Warning

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