Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at 3.13 trillion US dollars, with Bitcoin accounting for 58.7 percent, or approximately 1.83 trillion US dollars. The stablecoin market capitalization has reached 309.1 billion US dollars, marking a 0.49 percent increase over the past seven days and extending three consecutive weeks of positive growth. USDT represents 60.21 percent of the total stablecoin market capitalization.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most assets declined over the past seven days, while a small number recorded gains. Specifically, Bitcoin fell 0.14 percent, Ethereum rose 2.34 percent, Solana declined 1.52 percent, M surged 25.79 percent, and ZEC gained 16.26 percent.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of 286.2 million US dollars, while US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of 209 million US dollars, reflecting continued institutional participation despite muted price action.

Market Forecast (December 15th–December 21st)

At present, the Relative Strength Index stands at 46.17, remaining within a neutral range. The Fear and Greed Index is at 28, slightly higher than last week but still firmly within the fear zone. Meanwhile, the Altcoin Index is at 35, indicating a neutral stance and a slight decline compared with the previous week.

Following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut announcement on December 11th, market reaction was muted mainly, with the exception of gold. This outcome was not driven by a single factor, but rather by the market having fully priced in the 25 basis point rate cut ahead of the meeting, leading to profit-taking once the decision was confirmed. In addition, Chair Powell’s relatively hawkish remarks, combined with ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, continued to exert pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. As a result, the crypto market is expected to remain range-bound in the coming week.

Core Trading Ranges

• BTC: 86,000 to 94,200 US dollars
  

• ETH: 3,100 to 3,400 US dollars
  

• SOL: 125 to 145 US dollars
  
  

For short-term traders, it is recommended to avoid chasing prices near key resistance levels, such as BTC at around 94,200 US dollars, ETH at around 3,400 US dollars, and SOL at around 140 US dollars. Traders may consider waiting for a clear breakout confirmation or a pullback after resistance is tested, then initiating small positions near key support levels, such as BTC around 86,000 US dollars, ETH near 3,190 US dollars, and SOL around 125 US dollars, while maintaining tight stop-loss controls.

For medium-term swing traders, reducing trading frequency and waiting patiently for a breakout from the current December opening range is advised. A phased entry strategy may be considered, gradually building positions in strong support zones, such as SOL between 120 and 130 US dollars, while using a break below support as either a stop-loss trigger or a wait-and-see signal. In parallel, traders should closely monitor the sustainability of US ETF fund inflows, as these flows remain a key indicator of broader market sentiment.

Knowing the Present:

A Week in Review

1. On December 7, Matt Huang, co-founder of crypto investment firm Paradigm, posted on social media:
   “I don’t know who needs to hear this, but this is the ‘Netscape moment’ or ‘iPhone moment’ for cryptocurrency. It is operating at an unprecedented scale, larger than we ever imagined, and accelerating at both the institutional and cypherpunk levels.”
   

2. On December 10, the draft of the CLARITY Act was reported to be scheduled for release this week, with hearings and a vote expected next week.
   

3. On December 10, according to Bloomberg, SpaceX is expected to pursue an IPO in mid-to-late 2026, targeting a valuation of approximately 1.5 trillion US dollars and fundraising in excess of 30 billion US dollars, potentially making it the largest IPO in history. The exact timeline will depend on market conditions.
   

4. On December 9, as year-end approached, Wall Street banks began bracing for rising money market pressure. Analysts suggested this could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider measures to rebuild liquidity buffers in the 12.6 trillion US dollar market.
   

5. On December 10, according to Decrypt, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated at the Blockchain Association’s annual policy summit that many types of ICOs should be classified as non-securities transactions and therefore fall outside the SEC’s regulatory scope.
   

6. On December 12, the Southern District of New York federal court sentenced Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon to 15 years in prison for fraud and other offenses related to the Terra and Luna token collapses.
   
   

Macroeconomic News

1. On December 11, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent, marking the third consecutive rate cut and aligning with market expectations. This brought the total rate cuts for the year to 75 basis points.
   

2. On December 11, US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 rose to 236,000, the highest level since the week ending September 6, 2025. The figure exceeded both the expected 220,000 and the previous week’s 191,000.
   

3. On December 12, according to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate monitor, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January stood at 24.8 percent.
   
   

ETFs

According to available data, between December 8 and December 12, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of 286.2 million US dollars. As of December 12, GBTC (Grayscale) had experienced cumulative outflows totaling 25.039 billion US dollars, with current holdings of 15.061 billion US dollars, while IBIT (BlackRock) held 70.093 billion US dollars. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs stood at 120.07 billion US dollars.

Meanwhile, US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows of 209 million US dollars.

Future Outlook

Project Progress

1. Yala announced that all native BTC under its institutional model will be withdrawn from the Yala protocol. A complete redemption plan and timeline are expected to be released on December 15.
   

2. The deBridge Q2 airdrop claim window is scheduled to close on December 19.
   

3. PayPal launched a Bitcoin lottery for US users, with participation open until December 21.

Key Events

1. December 16, 21:30: The United States will release November seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls data.
   

2. December 18, 20:00: The United Kingdom will announce its central bank interest rate decision.
   

3. December 18, 21:15: The Eurozone will release the European Central Bank deposit facility rate.
   

4. December 18, 21:30: The United States will publish November year-on-year CPI data and initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13.
   

5. December 19, 23:00: The United States will release the year-on-year core PCE price index for November.

Token Unlocks

1. Connex (CONX) will unlock 1.32 million tokens on December 15, valued at approximately 21.35 million US dollars, representing 1.61 percent of the circulating supply.
   

2. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on December 15, valued at approximately 14.15 million US dollars, representing 5.07 percent of the circulating supply.
   

3. Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on December 16, valued at approximately 18.98 million US dollars, representing 1.9 percent of the circulating supply.
   

4. ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 173 million tokens on December 17, valued at approximately 5.64 million US dollars, representing 3.26 percent of the circulating supply.
   

5. Melania Meme (MELANIA) will unlock 26.25 million tokens on December 18, valued at approximately 2.93 million US dollars, representing 4.79 percent of the circulating supply.

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