Is “Extreme Fear” a Trap or a Pie in the Sky? Decoding the Probability and Path of a Rebound | Hotcoin Research | February 2 – February 6, 2026

Crypto Market Performance

• BTC dropped 20.22% in 7 days
• ETH down 30.04% in 7 days
• SOL is down 30.27% in 7 days

Market Forecast (February 9 – February 15)

• BTC: $67,000 – $82,000
• ETH: $1,900 – $2,200
• SOL: $86 – $120

Key Reasons

• The nomination of former Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman triggered market panic. Warsh is known for his extremely hawkish stance, and markets interpret his potential appointment as a signal of continued global liquidity tightening, which would negatively impact risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and tech stocks.
• Prior to the crash, the market had accumulated a large number of highly leveraged long positions. When key support levels (such as $65,000 for Bitcoin) were breached, large-scale forced liquidation followed. The cycle of “decline → liquidation → further decline” became the primary technical driver of the drop.
• On February 6, coinciding with the sharp decline, the People’s Bank of China issued a notice explicitly prohibiting the issuance of RMB-pegged stablecoins without permission. Although mainly targeting the domestic market, the move intensified global concerns about regulatory tightening amid already fragile sentiment.

• Unexpectedly hawkish remarks from the new Federal Reserve Chairman or stronger-than-expected inflation/employment data
• Continued capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, signal persistent institutional withdrawals
• Black swan events such as major exchange or project collapses, or geopolitical crises

Understanding the Present

Review of the Week’s Major Events

1. On February 2, the US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen in early trading. Asian stock index futures generally declined, and U.S. Stock index futures fell by approximately 1%, highlighting fragile market sentiment following a volatile week on Wall Street. Spot gold dropped 3.5%, silver nearly 9%, and WTI crude oil 4%. Previously, influenced by precious-metal declines and Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh, the US dollar recorded its largest single-day gain since May last year.
2. On February 1, renowned trader Peter Brandt, known for predicting the 2018 Bitcoin crash, suggested Bitcoin could fall to $58,000. His attached chart indicated a continued bear-market structure near the lower edge of a logarithmic channel. Two days earlier, he had predicted Bitcoin would bottom between August and October before surging.
3. On February 4, U.S. President Trump signed a government funding bill that ended the partial government shutdown. The bill funds multiple departments until September 30, providing temporary operational stability.
4. On February 5, Trump stated that “Washington’s rate hikes were already out of the question,” while Bessant claimed presidential influence over the Federal Reserve was possible.
5. Also on February 5, Bitcoin briefly fell below $74,000 during early US trading as a sell-off in tech stocks dragged down crypto sentiment. The Nasdaq 100 continued its downward trend, with the software sector experiencing sharp losses.
6. On February 5, Kyle Samani, co-founder of Multicoin, announced his departure to explore new directions while remaining chairman of the largest SOL treasury company.
7. On February 6, global risk markets declined again. Bitcoin dropped toward $60,000, and Ethereum fell below $1,800. US index futures extended losses, while precious metals and Asian markets also weakened significantly.
8. According to Antpool data from February 5, based on current mining difficulties and electricity prices, several mining rigs approached shutdown levels. The Antminer S21 Pro and S21+ Hyd models were estimated to have shutdown ranges of approximately $65,000–$69,000.

Macroeconomic News

1. On February 4, US companies reported weaker-than-expected January job growth. ADP data showed only 22,000 new private-sector jobs, below expectations, with prior data revised downward.
2. On February 5, the Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%, with a split vote indicating possible future rate cuts.
3. On February 5, U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, exceeding expectations of 212,000.
4. On February 7, CME FedWatch data showed a 12% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in March and an 82.3% probability of no change.

ETFs

Foresee the Future

Industry Conferences

1. Consensus Hong Kong 2026 will be held in Hong Kong, China, from February 11th to 12th.
2. ETHDenver 2026 will be held in Denver, USA, from February 17th to 21st.
3. EthCC 9 will be held in Cannes, France, from March 30th to April 2nd, 2026. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of Europe’s largest and longest-running annual Ethereum events, focusing on technology and community development.

Project Progress

1. The stablecoin protocol Cap will conduct its initial coin offering (ICO) on Uniswap on February 9th, with 10% of the total supply allocated for sale. The initial FDV is $150 million.
2. The deadline for Trust Wallet security incident compensation applications is February 14th. Trust Wallet reminds users that wallets affected by this security incident should not be used. Users should update to the latest version and migrate their funds immediately.

Important Events

1. February 10th, 21:30: The U.S. will release month-on-month data on December retail sales.
2. February 11th, 21:30: The U.S. will release the January unemployment rate.
3. February 12th, 21:30: The U.S. will release initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending February 7th.
4. February 13th, 21:30: The U.S. will release the January unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate.

Token Unlocking

1. Linea (LINEA) will unlock 138 million tokens on February 10th, worth approximately $4.58 million, representing 5.96% of the circulating supply.
2. Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.28 million tokens on February 10th, worth approximately $12.07 million, representing 0.69% of the circulating supply.
3. Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock 1.67 million tokens on February 11th, worth approximately $14.33 million, representing 0.32% of the circulating supply.

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