Hotcoin Research | Market Insight: June 24-28, 2024

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.24 trillion, with BTC accounting for 53.1% at $1.19 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $152.8 billion.

This week, the price of BTC was affected by the net outflow of ETFs and the Mt. Gox trustee's statement that it would start repaying BTC, and other factors, the market experienced panic, and the price of BTC once fell to around $58,300, while the price of ETH was supported by the good news of the upcoming full adoption of the U.S. spot ETF, and the price oscillated between $3300-$3500.

This week, the decline of cottage coins appeared to ease, due to VanEck submitted Solana ETF application, SOL and its ecological projects in June 28th, there is a certain general rise, it is worth noting that memecoin MOG 7 days up 109.3%. In previous years, the crypto market has been weak in the summer, so investment should be aware of the risks.

The "Fear & Greed Index" stands at 30, with 4 days of neutrality and 3 days of fear this week.

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A look back at the week's big events

1. on June 24, the price of Gas on the ethereum network fell to its lowest level since 2020, and bitcoin miners' earnings hit an all-time low;

2. Michael Dell, founder of Dell, made frequent Bitcoin-related tweets on social media platforms;

3. crypto-finance research startup SoSoValue closed a $4.15 million seed round of funding;

4. the Cryptocurrency Panic and Greed Index dropped to 30 on June 25, with market sentiment returning to a state of panic for the first time since September 2023；

5. wikileaks founder Assange has left the UK and will eventually return to Australia;

6. core Arbitrum governance staff have proposed turning on ARB pledge rewards to improve governance security;

7. social fitness app STEPN GO went live on the Apple App Store on June 25th;

8. net inflows to USDC, the centralized trading platform, hit a near one-year high;

9. on June 27, Reuters cited industry executives as saying that eight asset managers, including BlackRock, were in the final stages of negotiations with regulators, with only minor last-minute changes remaining. It is expected that the U.S. SEC may approve the Ether Spot ETF as early as July 4th;

10. on June 27, according to information on the SEC's official website, VanEck filed an application for the Solana Trust, an ETF that issues shares of common stock with interests that are expected to be listed and traded on the Cboe BZX Exchange Ltd. subject to notice of issuance;

11. total TVL for Pendle, the DeFi yield market, fell to $3.964 billion, down 37.6% in 7 days;

12. the blue chip NFT series floor prices generally recovered, with MAYC floor prices up 15.17% over 7 days；

13. the co-founder of Kraken, Jesse Powell, donated $1 million to the Trump campaign in his personal capacity, mostly in ETH.

Macroeconomics

1. June 26, U.S. SEC Chairman GENSLER said that the approval process of spot Ether ETF "went smoothly;

2. June 26, according to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 88.6%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 11.4%. 3. June 28, Fed Governor Bowman said that the Fed's interest rates would remain unchanged in August;

3. June 28, Fed Governor Bowman said that the Fed has not yet reached the point where it can consider cutting interest rates. If inflation moves towards 2%, we may consider a rate cut;

4. 233,000 initial jobless claims in the U.S. to the week of June 22, expected 236,000, the previous value of 238,000 people;

5. on June 29, according to market news, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Consensys;

6. on June 29, according to market news, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) charged Lido and Rocket Pool's pledge program with being a security;

7. on June 29, a federal judge dismissed a portion of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) lawsuit against cryptocurrency trading platform Binance and its founder, CZ, and the SEC's charges against Binance's initial token offering and ongoing sale of BNB, BNB Vault, pledge services, failure to register, and fraud can proceed, according to Coindesk. The judge granted Binance's and CZ's motion to dismiss the charges related to secondary market BNB sales and Simple Earn.

ETF

According to statistics, during June 24-28, the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF had a net outflow of: $37.8 million; as of June 28, GBTC (Shades of Gray) had a total outflow of: $18.515 billion, and is currently holding $16.532 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) is currently holding $18.325 billion. Total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETFs is: $53.896 billion.

Foreseeing the Future

Event Previews

1. 2024 Blockchain Expo World (Blockchain Expo World) will be held in Istanbul Expo Center, Turkey from July 4 to 7. The summit will mainly gather various exhibiting projects in the form of booths, and its venue area is 12,127 square meters, with a capacity of 100,000 visitors per day;

2. IVS2024 KYOTO, held in Kyoto, Japan, from July 4 to 6, with the theme of "Crossing Borders," will bring together Japanese startups to highlight how Web2, Web3, and Artificial Intelligence are shaping the world;

3. BNB Chain 2024 Q2 Hackathon "One BNB- Coding the Future" winning projects will be announced on July 1, and the incubation program will be held from July 1 to 31.

Project Progress

1. The ASI token merger program will be implemented on July 1. The first phase will temporarily merge AGIX and OCEAN into FET, and then convert them into ASI later on;

2. the release of Uniswap v4 is tentatively scheduled for the third quarter of 2024;

3. io.net Q3 claiming period will start on July 1, 2024 at 21:00；

4. Loopring announced that users have until July 4 to claim the TAIKO airdrop from the Loopring protocol community. Users can receive the airdrop by simply checking the eligibility of the Loopring Protocol L2 activated wallet on its website and then pasting the new Taiko home address;

5. the Wormhole W airdrop pickup window will close on July 4 at 7:59pm.

Important Events

1. Hungary moves forward with a legislative proposal, introduced by the Hungarian Ministry of Economy, which plans to allow banks, investment funds and custody firms to offer cryptocurrency market services, with Hungary's central bank to be responsible for regulating cryptocurrency services, with the legislation set to come into effect on June 30th;

2. the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) is reviewing blockchain MEV (Maximum Extractable Value) to determine whether it constitutes market manipulation, with public feedback due by the end of June;

3. Bloomberg ETF analysts predict the launch date of the Ether Spot ETF to be moved up to July 2nd.

Token Unlocking

1. Optimism Token OP will be unlocked on June 30 at 8:00 p.m. 31.34 million tokens, valued at approximately $56.1 million, or 2.88% of the outstanding quantity. 2;

2. Sui Token SUI will be unlocked on July 1 at 8:00 p.m. with 64.19 million coins, valued at approximately $57.15 million, accounting for 2.65% of the outstanding quantity;

3. io.net Token IO will be unlocked on July 1 at 20:00 for 7.5 million pieces, valued at approximately $25.8 million, or 7.89% of the outstanding quantity.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is dedicated to providing comprehensive and professional analysis of the crypto market. Our goal is to offer clear market insights and practical operational guidance for investors at all levels. Our professional content includes "Play to Earn Web3" tutorial series, in-depth analysis of crypto market trends, detailed analysis of potential projects, and real-time market observations. Whether you are a newcomer exploring the crypto world or a seasoned investor seeking deep insights, Hotcoin is your reliable partner for understanding and seizing market opportunities.

Risk Disclaimer

The crypto market is highly volatile, and investment involves risks. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and operate within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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