Crypto Market Performance

Market Overview

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $2.95 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 59.1 percent, equivalent to $1.74 trillion. The stablecoin market capitalization is $318.4 billion, reflecting a 0.28 percent decline over the past seven days, marking another week of negative growth. USDT accounts for 60.54 percent of the total stablecoin supply.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most assets declined, with only a limited number posting gains. Specifically, BTC fell 1.4 percent, ETH declined 1.89 percent, and SOL dropped 2.84 percent over the past seven days. In contrast, NIGHT rose 22.03 percent, while H gained 28.88 percent over the same period.

During the week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $589 million, while US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of $80.3 million, reflecting continued institutional caution.

Market Forecast (December 29 – January 2)

The RSI currently stands at 51.46, remaining within neutral territory. The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 22, down from last week and firmly within the fear range. Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index remains unchanged at 37, signaling continued market indecision.

The primary driver of recent price action has been the unwinding of leverage amid thin holiday liquidity.

Event-Driven Volatility

Around Christmas Eve on December 24, the market experienced a sudden flash crash in the absence of major negative news. Bitcoin fell approximately $2,300 within 45 minutes, triggering more than $66 million in long-position liquidations. This episode highlights how reduced holiday liquidity significantly amplifies price volatility, leaving markets vulnerable to large orders and forced liquidations.

Funding Conditions

Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continued to experience net outflows ahead of the holiday period, weakening institutional bid support and increasing downside sensitivity across the broader market.

Technical Outlook

All three significant assets are currently consolidating above key support zones. Whether Bitcoin can hold above $85,000, Ethereum stabilize near $2,900, and Solana remain above $120 will be critical in determining whether downside momentum can be contained.

• BTC Core Range: $83,000–$89,000
  
  

• ETH Core Range: $2,750–$3,050
  
  

• SOL Core Range: $115–$130

On-Chain Perspective

As shown in the data, the realized profit margin (SOPR) for long-term Bitcoin holders is currently 1.53. In a typical bull market, this level remains relatively low, while in bear markets it represents a neutral zone—well above historical capitulation levels.

Structural Shift in the Macro Landscape

The global macro backdrop has fundamentally evolved. Cryptocurrencies are transitioning from regulatory resistance toward legislative recognition, particularly in major markets such as the United States. At the same time, market influence is shifting away from early miners toward large institutional players and Wall Street asset managers.

Given this evolving structure, applying the traditional four-year cycle model without adjustment is increasingly insufficient. Looking ahead to 2026, the market faces a dual dynamic of risk and opportunity. The risk lies in the historical tendency for bear-market windows to emerge during this phase of the cycle.

Conversely, the opportunity is driven by the high probability of the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, which could inject renewed global liquidity. Simultaneously, asset managers and publicly listed companies continue to increase crypto exposure, offering sustained structural buying support.

As a result, even if the market enters a corrective phase, its duration may be shorter and its downside more contained. Based on this assessment, we project a high-probability bottom range for the next bear-market cycle in Bitcoin between $50,000 and $60,000.

Understanding the Present

Review of the Week's Major Events

1. On December 21, following a $50 million USDT phishing incident, the Ethereum community called for an end to truncated address displays using ellipses. Incomplete address visibility increases user risk, though current UI vulnerabilities remain technically solvable.
   
   

2. On December 24, US equities extended their rally. The S&P 500 approached 6,900, less than ten points from its all-time closing high. The Dow Jones rose 0.18 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.27 percent intraday.
   
   

3. On December 24, approximately $23.6 billion in Bitcoin options expired, marking the largest expiration event in Bitcoin’s history. Analysts noted a maximum pain level near $96,000, reinforcing near-term upward price pressure.
   
   

4. According to Cointelegraph, Aave founder Stani Kulechov purchased over $10 million worth of AAVE tokens, sparking debate over governance influence and the concentration of voting power.
   
   

5. On December 25, the market capitalization of USD1 surpassed $3.01 billion, rising 7.68 percent in 24 hours. Earlier, Binance introduced a USD1 flexible investment product offering annualized yields of up to 20 percent.
   
   

6. Throughout 2025, cryptocurrency-related mentions in US SEC filings surged, peaking at nearly 8,000 in August and remaining elevated through November. Bitcoin-related filings dominated, alongside increased amendments to ETFs and product expansion by traditional asset managers.

Macroeconomics

1. On December 24, US initial jobless claims came in at 214,000, below expectations of 224,000.
   
   

2. According to CME FedWatch data on December 23, the probability of a January rate cut fell to 13.3 percent, while the likelihood of rates remaining unchanged rose to 86.7 percent. The US third-quarter real GDP growth was revised to 4.3 percent, marking the strongest expansion since Q4 2023. Markets currently price a 40.7 percent probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut by March, with limited expectations for deeper easing.

ETFs

According to market data, between December 22 and December 26, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $589 million. As of December 26, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen cumulative outflows of $25.14 billion and currently holds $14.504 billion in assets, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $67.652 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs stands at $116.673 billion.

Meanwhile, US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $80.3 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Project Progress

1. Chain game ChronoForge announced it will cease operations on December 30, citing funding constraints after personally financing development since July and laying off 80 percent of its staff.
   
   

2. WLFI extended its zero-fee USD1 transaction program within the BNB ecosystem through December 31, enabling free transfers across CEXs, wallets, and cross-chain bridges.
   
   

3. BYEX announced plans to shut down operations and advised users to withdraw assets before December 31.
   
   

4. Rabby Wallet confirmed that the backend API for Rabby Desktop will shut down on December 31, though user assets remain unaffected and accessible via the Rabby browser plugin.
   
   

5. StarkWare launched a $1 million OP_CAT research fund to support studies on the feasibility and implications of activating OP_CAT on Bitcoin, with submissions due by January 1, 2025.

Important Events

1. The fourth round of FTX restitution is expected to begin in January 2026, with the eligibility confirmation deadline potentially set for December, although the specific timeline awaits official announcement.
   
   

2. The Turkmenistan Crypto-Asset Regulatory Law will come into effect on January 1. The law aims to attract investment and promote digitalization by establishing a regulatory framework for the creation, storage, issuance, use, and circulation of virtual assets within Turkmenistan, clarifying their legal and economic status.
   
   

3. The Basel Committee plans to implement a risk disclosure framework for bank crypto-asset exposure on January 1, 2026. This framework will introduce standardized public forms and templates covering bank crypto-asset risks, with the goal of improving information transparency and supporting market discipline.
   
   

4. Switzerland’s Automatic Exchange of Tax Information (AEE) Act covering crypto assets is expected to take effect on January 1, 2026. This expansion will require financial institutions to collect and report customer information related to crypto assets.
   
   

5. The UK government will implement new crypto tax regulations starting in January 2026, strengthening enforcement against tax evasion. Under the guidelines, crypto exchanges operating in the UK must begin collecting detailed transaction records and complete customer information. HMRC will use this data to cross-check tax returns to ensure compliance, with violations subject to sanctions. These guidelines also align with the OECD’s crypto asset reporting framework to enhance transparency across the digital asset market.
   
   

6. HM Revenue and Customs will require crypto companies to report every customer transaction from 2026 onward. Users who fail to comply or report inaccurately may face fines of up to £300, equivalent to approximately $398 per user.
   
   

7. On January 3, the United States will release initial jobless claims data, reported in thousands, for the week ending December 27, 2025.

Token Unlocks

1. Jupiter (JUP): 53.47 million tokens unlocking on December 28, worth approximately $10.7 million, representing 1.73 percent of circulating supply
   
   

2. Kamino (KMNO): 230 million tokens unlocking on December 30, worth approximately $11.69 million, representing 5.35 percent
   
   

3. EigenCloud (EIGEN): 36.82 million tokens unlocking on January 1, worth approximately $14.31 million, representing 9.74 percent
   
   

4. Ethena (ENA): 40.63 million tokens unlocking on January 2, worth approximately $8.64 million, representing 0.56 percent

About Us

Hotcoin Research serves as the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, transforming professional analysis into actionable insights. Through Weekly Insights, in-depth research reports, and the Hotcoin Selects dual-screening framework powered by AI and expert review, we help traders identify high-potential opportunities while managing downside risk. Our research team also engages directly with users via livestreams, breaking down key narratives and forecasting market trends to support informed decision-making across Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly advise investors to thoroughly assess these risks and adhere to a strict risk management framework to safeguard their funds.

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