Crypto Market Performance

Market Outlook (January 19–25)

• BTC: $94,800–$100,000
• ETH: $3,250–$3,400
• SOL: $138–$155

Understanding the Present

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. On January 12, rising geopolitical tensions drove broad gains in commodities, with gold, silver, and crude oil all advancing
2. On January 12, US federal prosecutors reportedly launched a criminal investigation related to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, focusing on renovation expenses at the Fed’s Washington headquarters
3. On January 11, Walmart and Google announced a partnership enabling users to browse and purchase products directly through Google’s Gemini AI interface
4. On January 13, former New York City Mayor Eric Adams launched “NYC Token,” which surged briefly before sharply declining after launch
5. On January 14, the US Senate Agriculture Committee announced plans to release the draft cryptocurrency market structure bill, known as the “Clarity Act,” on January 21, with a key hearing scheduled for January 27
6. On January 14, Glassnode data showed nearly $684 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with $577 million from short positions, marking the largest short-side liquidation event among the top 500 cryptocurrencies since the last major crash
7. On January 15, Federal Reserve officials emphasized the importance of central bank independence and signaled that interest rate cuts may be delayed due to economic resilience and persistent inflation
8. On January 16, reports indicated that Polygon conducted large-scale internal layoffs, affecting approximately 30% of its workforce, following a similar reduction in 2024

Macroeconomic News

1. On January 13th, the US December unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.6%, below the expected 2.70% and the previous value of 2.60%;
2. On November 15th, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 10th was 198,000, lower than the expected 215,000, and the previous value was revised from 208,000 to 207,000.
3. On January 15th, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January was 3.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 96.6%.

ETFs

Foreseeing the Future

Industry Conferences

1. Consensus Hong Kong 2026 will be held in Hong Kong, China, from February 11th to 12th.
2. ETHDenver 2026 will be held in Denver, USA, from February 17th to 21st.
3. EthCC 9 will be held in Cannes, France, from March 30th to April 2nd, 2026. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of Europe's largest and longest-running annual Ethereum events, focusing on technology and community development.

Project Updates

1. Caroline Ellison, SBF’s ex-girlfriend, may be released on January 21, 2026. Ellison testified as a key witness in SBF’s 2023 criminal trial, and although the judge acknowledged her “significant cooperation,” she was still sentenced to prison.
2. Crypto bug bounty platform Immunefi will list its IMU token on January 22.
3. Meteora’s MET airdrop will end on January 23. Unclaimed tokens will be added to the circulating community reserve for future rewards.
4. Sequel, an on-chain film development and funding project, announced that its film THE MUSICAL, funded on Base, has been selected for the Sundance Film Festival competition. The film will premiere in the US Narrative Competition on January 25.

Key Event

1. January 22, 21:30: US initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending January 17
2. January 23, 23:00: The US releases the final January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Token Unlocking

1. Official Trump (TRUMP) will unlock 50 million tokens on January 18, worth approximately $271 million, representing 11.95% of the circulating supply
2. Ondo (ONDO) will unlock 1.94 billion tokens on January 18, worth approximately $772 million, representing 57.23% of the circulating supply
3. LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 25.71 million tokens on January 20, worth approximately $42.68 million, representing 6.36% of the circulating supply
4. River (RIVER) will unlock 1.5 million tokens on January 22, worth approximately $29.84 million, representing 4.32% of the circulating supply
5. Soon (SOON) will unlock 21.88 million tokens on January 23, worth approximately $7.55 million, representing 5.63% of the circulating supply
6. Humanity (H) will unlock 105 million tokens on January 25, worth approximately $19.6 million, representing 4.57% of the circulating supply

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