Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $2.97 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59% of that, or approximately $1.75 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $310 billion, increasing by 0.2% over the past seven days. Stablecoins have recorded four consecutive weeks of positive growth, with USDT representing 60.23% of the total stablecoin market.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most assets declined, while only a small number recorded gains. Specifically, BTC fell 1.1%, ETH rose 0.63%, SOL declined 1.76%, NIGHT surged 50.99%, and H increased 154.63% over the past seven days.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $497 million, while US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of $643.9 million.

Market Forecast (December 22–28)

The current RSI stands at 44.35, remaining within a neutral range. The Fear & Greed Index declined to 25, down from last week and firmly in the fear zone. Meanwhile, the Altcoin Index rose to 37, remaining neutral and slightly higher than the previous week.

Amid positive macroeconomic signals, particularly expectations of interest rate cuts, the market has entered a low-liquidity holiday trading period. This phase is expected to be characterized by price consolidation and repeated testing of key resistance levels. At present, the market remains in a critical consolidation phase, setting the stage for potential moves in early 2026.

Core Price Ranges

• BTC: $84,000–93,000
  
  

• ETH: $2,950–3,200
  
  

• SOL: $125–130
  
  

For short-term traders, price action is expected to remain largely range-bound in the coming weeks, making range-based strategies more suitable.

For trend investors with a three- to six-month horizon, gradually implementing a medium-term buy-on-dips approach may help position portfolios ahead of potential market shifts next year.

For long-term investors with a horizon of more than one year, precise entry timing is less critical. Long-term accumulation strategies, such as dollar-cost averaging or holding through volatility, remain more appropriate.

Understanding the Present

Review of the Week's Major Events

1. On December 14, Coinglass data showed that the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index remained positive for 12 consecutive days, standing at 0.017%
   
   

2. On December 14, Itaú Asset Management, Brazil’s largest asset manager, advised investors to allocate 3 percent of their portfolios to Bitcoin as a hedge against foreign exchange volatility and market shocks, citing Bitcoin’s low correlation with domestic traditional assets and emphasizing that market timing is unnecessary in favor of a disciplined long-term strategy.
   
   

3. On December 16, former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh overtook Hassett as the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair. On prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Warsh being nominated by Trump rose from 7 percent to 48 percent, while the probability of Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, declined from a peak of 85 percent to 42 percent.
   
   

4. On December 15, according to Fortune, Visa announced the launch of a Stablecoin Consulting Service, designed to provide stablecoin strategy and implementation support for fintech firms, banks, and other enterprises.
   
   

5. On December 17, Stani Kulechov (stani.eth), founder and CEO of Aave, stated on social media that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission had completed its four-year investigation into the Aave protocol.
   
   

6. On December 17, The New York Times reported that U.S. President Trump’s public support for cryptocurrencies is reshaping the U.S. capital market, driving a surge in newly listed crypto-focused companies while increasing systemic market risks.
   
   

7. On December 18, markets widely expected the Bank of Japan to raise its overnight call rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent at its policy meeting concluding this Friday, marking the first rate hike since January and pushing benchmark rates to their highest level since 1995.
   
   

8. On December 18, a new governance proposal from the WLFI community officially opened for voting, proposing the use of a portion of unlocked WLFI vault funds to incentivize adoption of the USD1 stablecoin.
   
   

9. On December 18, according to The Block, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission charged Danh C. Vo, founder and CEO of Bitcoin mining firm VBit, with misappropriating $48.5 million, with funds allegedly used for gambling and personal expenditures.

Macroeconomic News

1. On December 16, the US November unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent, above the market expectation of 4.4 percent.
   
   

2. On December 18, the US November unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate came in at 2.7 percent, below the expected 3.1 percent.
   
   

3. On December 18, the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate from 4.00 percent to 3.75 percent, in line with market expectations. This decision followed a pause in its quarterly rate-cut cycle, which had been in effect since August 2024
   
   

4. On December 23, according to the Federal Reserve interest rate monitor, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January stood at 22.3 percent.

ETFs

According to available data, between December 15 and December 19, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $497 million. As of December 19, GBTC (Grayscale) had accumulated total net outflows of $25.096 billion and currently held $14.702 billion in assets, while IBIT (BlackRock) held $68.633 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs stood at $117.134 billion.

Meanwhile, US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $643.9 million over the same period.

Looking to the Future

Project Progress

1. Aster will launch its fifth-phase airdrop on December 22, running through February 1, 2026, distributing approximately 96 million ASTER tokens, representing 1.2 percent of the total supply.
   
   

2. Metaplanet will hold a special shareholder meeting on December 22 to discuss a preferred stock issuance proposal.
   
   

3. The application period for the IRYS token airdrop will conclude on December 25.
   
   

4. Voting on the Aave community’s ARFC proposal on Snapshot to transfer control of brand assets to token holders will remain open until December 26. The proposal clarifies ownership, usage rights, and related terms for Aave’s brand assets and intellectual property, including domain names, social media accounts, and naming rights, granting governance control to the DAO.

Key Events

1. The preliminary estimate of US Q3 GDP will be released on Tuesday, December 23.
   
   

2. At 21:30 on December 24, the United States will publish initial jobless claims data for the week ending December 20.
   
   

3. At 02:30 on December 24, the Bank of Canada will release the minutes from its monetary policy meeting.
   
   

4. Due to the Christmas holiday, the US stock market will close three hours early on December 24 and remain closed all day on December 25.

Token Unlocks

1. SOON (SOON) will unlock 21.88 million tokens on December 23, valued at approximately $8.7 million, representing 5.97 percent of the circulating supply.
   
   

2. Humanity (H) will unlock 105 million tokens on December 25, valued at approximately $15.34 million, representing 4.79 percent of the circulating supply.
   
   

3. Plasma (XPL) will unlock 88.89 million tokens on December 25, valued at approximately $11.6 million, representing 4.52 percent of the circulating supply.
   
   

4. Jupiter (JUP) will unlock 53.47 million tokens on December 28, valued at approximately $10.34 million, representing 1.73 percent of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to turning professional crypto analysis into actionable strategies. Our three-pillar framework—trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking—combines deep research, multi-angle project evaluation, and continuous market monitoring.

Through our Weekly Insights and In-depth Research Reports, we break down market dynamics and spotlight emerging opportunities. With Hotcoin Selects—our exclusive dual-screening process powered by both AI and human expertise—we help identify high-potential assets while minimizing trial-and-error costs.

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