Watch for Reversal Risks Next Week: Key Levels for BTC, ETH, and SOL Hotcoin Research | May 4 – May 10, 2026

Weekly Insights

I -update2026-08-21

5.9K

Crypto Market Performance

The total crypto market capitalization currently stands at $2.65 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60.2% of the market at $1.59 trillion. The stablecoin market capitalization is $324 billion, up 1.12% over the past seven days, with USDT accounting for 58.52%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most posted gains while a smaller number declined. Over the past seven days, BTC gained 3.34%, ETH rose 0.1%, SOL climbed 5.28%, TON surged 95.28%, and ZEC advanced 59.08%.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $630 million; US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $69.9 million.

Market Forecast (May 11–17)

RSI stands at 55.01 (neutral, lower than last week), Fear & Greed Index is 39 (fear), Altcoin Season Index is 36 (neutral).

BTC: $75,000–83,000 (If BTC fails to reclaim $80,000, it may retest $75,000)

ETH: $2,200–2,500 (following BTC)

SOL: $85–100 (with higher expected volatility)

Risk Factors to Watch:

Beware of "two-way liquidations": Market leverage remains elevated, and sharp fluctuations in any direction can easily trigger a chain of liquidations. High volatility is expected to continue next week; it is recommended to reduce leverage exposure.
Key levels to watch: If BTC holds above $82,000: This could signal renewed short-term strength; observe altcoin catch-up opportunities. BTC falling below $75,000: This may trigger a technical sell-off; caution is advised.
Macro Calendar: Watch for comments from Fed officials and US economic data next week; any hawkish comments on interest rate policy could exacerbate market volatility.

Market Highlights

Bitcoin Surges Past $81,000 to a Three-Month High

The market had a strong start to the week. On May 5, Bitcoin surged overnight, breaking through the psychological barrier of $80,000 and reaching a high of $81,732, a new high since January 31, 2026. As of the evening of May 6, Bitcoin continued to hold above $82,000, up more than 20% on the month. The rally was largely driven by continued ETF inflows and macro-driven safe-haven demand.

Ethereum and Major Altcoins Rally Alongside Bitcoin

Driven by Bitcoin's lead, the crypto market saw a broad-based rally. Ethereum (ETH) broke through $2,400, and major altcoins including SOL, XRP, and DOGE all saw significant gains. Notably, the privacy coin ZEC performed exceptionally well, with a 24-hour increase of over 32%.

US Crypto Stocks Rally Alongside Bitcoin

The bullish sentiment in the crypto market spilled over into US equities. On May 5, shares of several crypto-related companies rallied sharply, with Bullish rising over 19%, and crypto mining companies Riot Platforms and CleanSpark both seeing gains exceeding 5%. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Coinbase also posted strong gains.

Bitcoin Pulls Back Below $80,000 After Sharp Reversal

After several days of gains, the market experienced a correction towards the end of the week. Starting on the evening of May 7, cryptocurrencies across the board fell, with Bitcoin quickly falling below the $80,000 mark, retreating to around $79,725. Analysts pointed out that leverage accumulation at high levels and concentrated profit-taking were the main reasons for the sharp drop.

Over 240,000 Traders Liquidated Amid Extreme Volatility

Extreme volatility triggered heavy liquidations across futures markets. During the rally on May 6, over 140,000 traders were liquidated, amounting to $584 million; and during the subsequent decline, over 100,000 more were liquidated. The cumulative number of liquidations over two days exceeded 240,000, highlighting severe two-way liquidations across the market.

Easing Iran Tensions Become a Key Market Catalyst

Recent crypto market volatility is closely tied to geopolitics. US President Trump stated on May 6 that the US and Iran were close to reaching a memorandum of understanding, signaling an easing of tensions in Iran and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Easing macro risk-off sentiment directly triggered a pullback in Bitcoin prices from their highs, as well as related fluctuations in gold and crude oil prices.

US Bitcoin Spot ETFs Continue to See Strong Inflows

Despite the recent pullback, institutional inflows remain strong. Data shows that on May 6 alone, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $467 million. Looking back at April, these products saw net inflows of $1.97 billion, the strongest monthly inflows year-to-date, indicating that traditional financial institutions are still steadily allocating Bitcoin through regulated channels.

Hong Kong Advances Regulated Stablecoin Framework

Significant progress has been made in Asia-Pacific regulation. With the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) taking effect on April 10, the market continued to assess its impact this week. Anchorpoint Financial and HSBC, among other institutions, have obtained stablecoin licenses, marking a major step toward a regulated HKD stablecoin ecosystem. The move is widely seen as a crucial infrastructure for institutional funds entering on-chain finance.

China Tightens Restrictions on RMB Stablecoins and RWA Activities

Amid strong market momentum, regulatory risk concerns are also rising. In China, a joint notice issued by eight government departments, including the People’s Bank of China, has once again drawn market attention. The notice, described by local media as the “strictest-ever” regulatory upgrade, explicitly prohibits overseas entities from issuing RMB-pegged stablecoins and conducting related RWA tokenization activities. Analysts warn investors to remain mindful of regulatory risks.

DeFi Sees Continued Capital Outflows

Market divergence remains evident. Affected by the previous KelpDAO attack resulting in a $292 million loss and the potential bad debt crisis of Aave, capital continues to flow out of the decentralized finance (DeFi) market, with a significant decrease in total value locked (TVL). Capital is shifting from higher-risk DeFi protocols to Bitcoin or isolated-market lending protocols (such as Spark and Morpho).

Macro Updates

On May 7, initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 2 were 200,000, lower than the expected 205,000 and below market expectations. The previous figure was revised from 189,000 to 190,000.
On May 8, the US unemployment rate for April was 4.3%, in line with expectations.
On May 8, the US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for April were 115,000, lower than the expected 62,000.
On May 8, according to CME FedWatch data, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 95.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.1%.

ETFs

According to statistics, from May 4 to May 8, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $630 million; as of May 8, GBTC (Grayscale) experienced a total outflow of $26.263 billion, currently holding $12.019 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $65.986 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $109.584 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $69.9 million.

Looking Ahead

Industry Conferences

Istanbul Blockchain Week 2026 will be held in Turkey from June 2 to 3.
IVS2026 KYOTO will be held in Kyoto, Japan, from July 1 to 3, 2026.
WebX 2026 will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from July 13 to 14, 2026.

Project Updates

HashKey Exchange will launch a co-branded Visa credit card with Shanghai Commercial Bank, with registration opening on May 11.
Base's first independent network upgrade, Base Azul, will activate its mainnet on May 13, 2026.
Dmail Network will gradually cease all services; users must export their email content to other platforms before May 15.

Key Events

May 12, 20:30: US April CPI YoY data release.
May 12, 20:30: US April CPI MoM data release.
May 14, 20:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9.

Token Unlocks

Starknet (STRK) will unlock 126 million tokens on May 15, worth approximately $7.11 million, representing 4.05% of the circulating supply.
Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.55 million tokens on May 15, worth approximately $3.64 million, representing 0.95% of the circulating supply.
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on May 16, worth approximately $13.21 million, representing 1.71% of the circulating supply.
ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 172 million tokens on May 17, worth approximately $3.42 million, representing 2.8% of the circulating supply.
Solv Protocol (SOLV) will unlock 608 million tokens on May 17, worth approximately $2.77 million, representing 17.29% of the circulating supply.

About Us:

Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of the Hotcoin exchange, is committed to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for your investment decisions. We analyze market trends for you through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Research Reports"; and with our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers will also host live streams to provide face-to-face analysis of hot topics and trend predictions. We believe that warm support and professional guidance can help more investors navigate market cycles and seize the valuable opportunities of Web3.

Risk Warning:

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment inherently carries risk. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch

X: x.com/HotcoinAcademy

Mail: labs@hotcoin.com

Talaan ng mga Nilalaman

Crypto Market Performance
Market Highlights
Macro Updates
ETFs
Looking Ahead
Industry Conferences
Project Updates
Key Events
Token Unlocks
About Us:
Risk Warning:

Inirerekumendang pagbabasa

Tingnan ang higit pa

Hotcoin Investment and Financing Weekly Report (7.20-7.26)｜A Total of 29 Public Investment and Financing Events, Financing Data Rebounds

Weekly Insights

Hotcoin Research | Market Insight: August 19-23, 2024

Weekly Insights

PCE Climbed Again in July; Market Faces Pressure Heading into September Hotcoin Research | August 25-29, 2025

Weekly Insights