Resilience Test Week: Markets Seek New Balance Amid Multiple Uncertainties Hotcoin Research | December 29, 2025 – January 2, 2026
Crypto Market Performance
Crypto Market Performance
Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at USD 3.11 trillion, with BTC dominance at 58.56%, equivalent to USD 1.82 trillion. Stablecoin market capitalization is USD 307.5 billion, down 0.25% week-on-week, marking two consecutive weeks of negative stablecoin growth. USDT accounts for 60.8% of the total stablecoin supply.
Among the top two hundred projects by market capitalization, most assets recorded gains. Over the past seven days, BTC rose 4.2%, ETH 6.92%, and SOL 7.93%, while select small-cap assets significantly outperformed, including MYX up 84.42% and PEPE up 54.1%.
This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of USD 458.7 million, while US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of USD 161.3 million.
Market Forecast (January 5 – January 9)
Technical indicators remain broadly neutral. The RSI currently stands at 60.59, the Fear and Greed Index at 26, still within fear territory but improved from last week, and the Altcoin Season Index at 39, also higher week on week.
Core trading ranges:
This marks the first trading week of 2026. Net inflows into US spot ETFs directly expanded total crypto market capitalization. After gold and silver reached new highs and subsequently pulled back, crypto markets absorbed part of the outflowing liquidity. The coming week is expected to see range-bound upward fluctuations. Short-term traders may consider range strategies, while chasing recent small-cap rallies is not recommended, given the still-uncertain macro outlook for 2026.
Weekly Highlights
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On December 29, Lu Lei, Vice Governor of the People’s Bank of China, announced that the PBOC will release the Action Plan on Further Strengthening the Management and Service System and Related Financial Infrastructure Construction of the Digital RMB. The new-generation digital RMB framework officially launched on January 1, 2026
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On December 29, Indian police arrested a former Coinbase customer service representative in Hyderabad, suspected of involvement in the internal data breach disclosed by Coinbase in May. This marks the first known arrest in the case, confirmed by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong
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According to LatePost, Meta acquired Butterfly Effect, the developer of the AI application Manus, for billions of dollars. This represents Meta’s third-largest acquisition to date, following WhatsApp and ScaleAI. Before the acquisition, Manus was reportedly raising funding at a USD 2 billion valuation, with negotiations completed in approximately ten days
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On December 30, Trust Wallet compensated affected users approximately USD 8.5 million for stolen assets
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On December 31, supported by Federal Reserve rate cuts and accelerated AI investment, global equity markets are on track for their strongest annual performance in six years, with the MSCI World Equity Index up 21% in 2025
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On January 4, Tom Lee publicly supported BitMine’s authorized share capital increase, with BMNR closing up 14.88%
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On January 3, an explosion in Caracas, Venezuela, triggered power outages near a military base. The crypto market experienced a brief, mild pullback following the incident
Macroeconomic Developments
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US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27 came in at 199,000, the lowest level since late November and below expectations of 220,000
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According to CME FedWatch data on January 4, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January stands at 16.6%, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 83.4%
ETFs
From December 29 to January 2, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of USD 458.7 million. As of January 2, GBTC’s cumulative outflows reached USD 25.193 billion, with assets under management at USD 14.793 billion, while IBIT holds USD 69.313 billion. Total US Bitcoin spot ETF market capitalization stands at USD 119.546 billion.
US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows of USD 161.3 million during the same period.
Future Outlook
Project Progress
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Ethereum-focused program The Daily Gwei will resume weekly updates on January 5, 2026
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The deadline for claiming the social application-based Christmas Soulbound NFT is January 7, 2026
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Web3 bot company XMAQUINA will partner with Virtuals Protocol for a DEUS community sale on January 8. The auction begins at 20:00, with an FDV of USD 60 million, 33% liquid at TGE, and the remaining 67% vesting linearly over twelve months. Eligible participants may earn a 20% DEUS reward
Important Events
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January 7, 21:15: US December ADP employment data release
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January 8, 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3
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January 9, 21:30: US December unemployment rate release
Token Unlocks
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Hyperliquid will unlock 1.2 million team tokens on January 6, with monthly unlocks thereafter
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Jito (JTO) unlocks 11.31 million tokens on January 7, representing 1.14% of circulating supply
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Movement (MOVE) unlocks 161 million tokens on January 9, representing 1.62% of circulating supply
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Linea (LINEA) unlocks 1.44 billion tokens on January 10, representing 2% of circulating supply
About Us
Hotcoin Research is the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, focused on transforming professional analysis into actionable tools. Through Weekly Insights and In-depth Research Reports, we decode market dynamics and identify structural opportunities. Leveraging our proprietary Hotcoin Selects framework, which combines AI screening with expert analysis, we help investors reduce trial-and-error costs. Our researchers also engage directly with users through weekly livestreams to discuss key themes and market outlooks.
Risk Disclaimer
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. Investors should carefully assess their risk tolerance and apply appropriate risk management strategies.
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Email: labs@hotcoin.com
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