Has the Rally Faded After the Good News Was Priced In, or Is a New Cycle Just Beginning? Hotcoin Research | May 11-15, 2026

Weekly Insights

I -update2026-08-21

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Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.68 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60.3% at $1.61 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $322.5 billion, a decrease of 0.19% in the last 7 days, with USDT accounting for 58.84%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small portion rose while the majority fell. Specifically: BTC rose 0.77% in the last 7 days, ETH rose 1.35%, SOL rose 3.1%, H rose 34.07%, and INJ rose 26.29%.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $990 million; US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of $124 million.

Market Forecast (May 18–24):

RSI index is 47 (neutral, lower than last week), Fear & Greed index is 42 (fear), Altcoin Season index is 30 (neutral).

BTC: $75,000-82,000 (Strong support at $75,000)

ETH: $1,900-2,400 (Key support at $1,900)

SOL: $80-90 (Tracking the broader market)

Risk Factors to Watch:

Regulatory Policy Implementation: The key vote in the US Senate on the Clarity Act could provide the market with a clear regulatory framework, serving as an important short-term catalyst.
Fund Flow Changes: Continue to monitor whether Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs are experiencing net inflows or outflows. Any continuous outflow of funds could be a leading signal of market weakness.
Macro Market Sentiment: While the probability of a Fed rate hike in June is extremely low, any hawkish statements regarding inflation or the economy could tighten liquidity in global markets, putting pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Market Highlights

US Senate Committee Passes Landmark Clarity Act

This is the most significant event of the week. On May 14, the US Senate Banking Committee formally passed the Clarity Act for Digital Asset Markets with a vote of 15 to 9. This marks the first time in US Congressional history that legislation on a comprehensive cryptocurrency market structure has been voted on and passed at the committee level. The bill, totaling 309 pages, retains legal protections for DeFi developers. The bill will now proceed to the full Senate for a vote, with market predictions indicating a roughly 75% probability of it becoming law by the end of 2026.

Bitcoin Holds Above $80,000, Weekly Chart Completes Key Consolidation

Bitcoin effectively held above the $80,000 mark this week, closing the week at approximately $82,210 on May 10, its first full weekly close above this key level since the end of January. Although the price briefly retreated to $79,500 mid-week due to CPI data and ETF fund fluctuations, it quickly stabilized and rebounded. As of May 15, Bitcoin was trading around $81,000, up approximately 2% over the past week.

US April CPI Rises to 3.8%, Reviving Rate Hike Expectations and Briefly Disrupting Markets

US CPI data released on May 12 showed inflation rising to 3.8%, higher than economists' expectations of 3.7%, reaching the highest level since the fall of 2023. The higher-than-expected inflation was mainly driven by energy costs (the situation in Iran pushing up oil prices). After the data release, the market briefly reignited expectations of interest rate hikes, putting pressure on Bitcoin. However, the US stock and crypto markets subsequently digested this negative news, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both achieving their sixth consecutive week of gains and hitting new all-time highs.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs See Six Consecutive Weeks of Net Inflows, BlackRock Leads Institutional Buying

Institutional funds continued to pour in, as Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded six consecutive weeks of net inflows, setting a record for the longest consecutive net buying streak since August 2025, accumulating approximately $3.4 billion. Inflows were strong in the first half of the week before slowing in the second half, with some products experiencing profit-taking. It's worth noting that the market exhibits a clear "winner-takes-all" structure—funds are rapidly concentrating on BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink reiterated this week that Bitcoin is functioning as a hedge against currency debasement.

Trump Attends China Summit Seeking Peace with Iran, Geopolitical Risk Premium Fluctuates

Geopolitics became a key variable influencing risk assets this week. US President Trump attended a summit with Chinese leaders this week, seeking a diplomatic solution to the Iranian conflict. Previously, US-Iran negotiations had boosted market sentiment, causing a sharp drop in international oil prices; however, Trump subsequently stated that the ceasefire agreement was "precarious," and Iran declared the US proposal "completely unacceptable," causing WTI oil prices to rebound to around $98, and geopolitical premiums to heat up again. The market is closely watching how progress in the peace talks could impact inflation and risk appetite.

XRP ETF Holdings Surpass $1.18 Billion, Institutions Invest in Alternative Assets

Demand for XRP ETFs increased significantly this week, with data showing that its holdings have climbed to $1.18 billion, representing approximately 1.3% of the total XRP supply. This means that approximately 770 million to 840 million XRP have been transferred from the open market to institutional holders. While there hasn't been a dramatic price reaction yet—XRP has remained stable in the $1.30 to $1.50 range for the past three months—the reduced liquidity in exchange order books sets the stage for potential future supply shocks. XRP rose about 3.5% this week, trading around $1.49.

Ethereum Whale Completely Liquidates Its Holdings, Retaining Over $750 Million in BTC.

A significant on-chain development has attracted market attention: According to Arkham data, on May 11, the well-known whale "HyperUnit" deposited all of its remaining Ethereum holdings into Binance, fully liquidating its ETH exposure. This address previously held approximately $10 billion worth of BTC and ETH at the market peak; currently, only about $750 million worth of Bitcoin remains on-chain. The market interprets this move as reflecting investor concerns about competitive pressure on Ethereum (with emerging L1 platforms like Solana offering lower fees and faster transactions), while also reflecting that Bitcoin remains the strongest conviction asset in its portfolio.

USDC Saw a Net Inflow of Over $1.6 Billion in a Single Week, Pushing the Total Market Capitalization of Stablecoins Above $323 Billion.

The stablecoin market continued its expansion, with its total market capitalization exceeding $323 billion. USDC, issued by Circle, performed particularly well, with a net inflow of approximately $1.61 billion in a single week, reaching a market capitalization of $78.96 billion, a weekly increase of 2.08%. Boosted by this, Circle's stock price surged 15.91% on May 10, closing at $131.76. The continued accumulation of stablecoin "dry powder" reserves is seen as an important signal of increased off-exchange purchasing power, providing a liquidity foundation for subsequent market gains.

Banks Launch Crypto Custody Services, Significantly Lowering the Entry Barrier for Institutional Investors

This week, in accordance with the implementation of SAB 122 accounting standards, large custodian institutions such as BNY Mellon began implementing new versions of digital asset custody agreements. This means that the cost and compliance threshold for traditional financial institutions to custody crypto assets have been significantly reduced, clearing a key obstacle for large funds to enter the market. This infrastructure improvement is seen as a key catalyst for further institutional adoption, alongside ETF inflows.

Arthur Hayes Makes Bold Prediction: Bitcoin Targets $126,000

Despite short-term market constraints due to inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes offered an optimistic long-term outlook this week. He predicts that Bitcoin's price could climb to $126,000 against the backdrop of global liquidity changes driven by the US-China tech competition. He points out that aggressive monetary policies by major central banks are prioritizing economic growth over inflation concerns, and increased availability of bank credit will be a catalyst for Bitcoin's rise. Furthermore, Bernstein and Goldman Sachs have also given year-end price targets of $150,000 to $200,000 respectively.

Macro Updates

On May 12, the US April unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate was 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.7%.
On May 12, the US April seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate was 0.6%, in line with expectations.
On May 14, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 9 reached 211,000, a new high since the week ending April 18, exceeding market expectations of 205,000. The previous figure was revised from 200,000 to 199,000.
On May 14, according to the Fed's interest rate watch, the probability of no change in interest rates in June was 98.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 1.8%.

ETFs

According to statistics, from May 11 to May 15, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $990 million; as of May 15, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $26.556 billion, currently holding $11.803 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $64.625 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $106.951 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETF net outflow: $124 million.

Looking Ahead

Industry Conferences

Southeast Asia Blockchain Week will be held in Bangkok, Thailand, from May 18 to 24, 2026.
ETHMilan will be held in Milan, Italy, from May 21 to 22, 2026.
Istanbul Blockchain Week 2026 will be held in Turkey, from June 2 to 3.
IVS2026 KYOTO will be held in Kyoto, Japan, from July 1 to 3, 2026.
WebX 2026 will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from July 13 to 14, 2026.

Project Updates

Cardano NFT marketplace JPG Store will be gradually shut down; the platform will officially cease operations on May 23.
Base Batches 003 Accelerator will host a live Demo Day in San Francisco on May 19.

Key Events

At 8:30 PM on May 21, the US will release initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending May 16.
At 10:00 PM on May 22, the US will release the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May.

Token Unlocks

Katana (KAT) will unlock 176 million tokens on May 18, worth approximately $1.52 million, representing 6.98% of the circulating supply.
Pyth Network (PYTH) will unlock 2.1 billion tokens on May 19, worth approximately $97.38 million, representing 36.96% of the circulating supply.
LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 25.7 million tokens on May 20, worth approximately $33.93 million, representing 5.07% of the circulating supply.
KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 17.59 million tokens on May 20, worth approximately $7.67 million, representing 4.7% of the circulating supply.
SOON (SOON) will unlock 21.91 million tokens on May 23, worth approximately $3.66 million, representing 4.6% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of the Hotcoin exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for your investment decisions. We analyze market trends through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Research Reports"; and with our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers will also engage with you face-to-face via live stream, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm support and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the valuable opportunities of Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment inherently carries risk. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch

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Mail: labs@hotcoin.com

Talaan ng mga Nilalaman

Crypto Market Performance
Market Highlights
Macro Updates
ETFs
Looking Ahead
Industry Conferences
Project Updates
Key Events
Token Unlocks
About Us
Risk Warning

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