A Week of Liquidation: From Iran Tensions to 1 Billion USDT, Who's Leading the Rebound? Hotcoin Research | March 9-13, 2026

Weekly Insights

I -update2026-08-21

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Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.43 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.8% at $1.43 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $315.3 billion, an increase of 0.79% in the last 7 days, of which USDT accounts for 58.33%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most rose while a few fell. Specifically: BTC rose 1.21% in 7 days, ETH rose 1.35%, SOL rose 0.66%, PI rose 46.29%, and HYPE rose 22.04%.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $762.5 million; US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $117.4 million.

Market Forecast (March 16th - March 22nd): The current RSI is 56.73 (neutral, higher than last week), the Fear & Greed Index is 14 (extreme fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is 37 (neutral, lower than last week).

BTC: $68,000-73,000 (Focus on the Fed's dot plot at 2 AM on March 19th)

ETH: $1,980-2,200 (Can it hold above $1,980?)

SOL: $90-135 (Positive macroeconomic and fundamental outlook)

As the most heavily allocated asset among institutions, BTC is highly sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s dot plot. Next week’s volatility will essentially be a repricing of interest rate expectations.On-chain data shows that the $68,000–$69,000 range contains a large concentration of long liquidation liquidity. If this level breaks, it could accelerate a move down toward $65,000.

ETH has recently seen cautious institutional sentiment. Even with positive macroeconomic news, its gains may not match BTC's (manifested as a continued weakening of the ETH/BTC exchange rate). $1,776 is a core area of concentrated trading volume since the end of 2025 and the last line of defense for the bulls. A decisive break below this level would shift the technical pattern to a medium-term bearish trend.

SOL's on-chain data shows a new high, indicating continued activity from real funds. This gives it a stronger buffer against macroeconomic shocks than purely speculative altcoins. Once the macroeconomic environment shifts towards a dovish stance, SOL's rebound is typically greater than ETH and BTC, making it suitable as an aggressive buy-on-dip strategy.

Understanding the Present

Weekly Highlights

Geopolitical Easing Leads to a Sharp Rebound in the Crypto Market

On Monday (March 9th), with the short-term easing of tensions in Iran, market risk appetite rebounded, leading to a strong rebound in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke through $71,000, with a 24-hour increase of over 5%. This surge resulted in massive short liquidations, with total liquidations exceeding $300 million and affecting 81,300 traders.

Market Sentiment and the Return of Leverage

Accompanying the price increase, the size of open interest on major derivatives trading platforms increased rapidly, indicating that leveraged funds are returning to the market, which also suggests that future market volatility may be amplified. However, despite the rebound, the current total market capitalization of the crypto market is still about 43% lower than its peak last year. The market is still recovering.

Central Bank Interest Rate Decision Week Approaches, Market Faces Macroeconomic Test

Seven major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will announce their interest rate decisions next week (March 18-19). Recent surges in oil prices due to conflict have reignited concerns about inflation, and traders are adjusting their expectations for rate cuts. A hawkish signal from central banks could trigger significant volatility in risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Tether Treasury Mints 1 Billion USDT, Injecting Liquidity into the Market

According to Whale Alert monitoring, the Tether Treasury minted 1 billion USDT (approximately $1 billion) this week. Such a large-scale stablecoin issuance is generally seen as a bullish signal, indicating new funds entering the crypto ecosystem, thus potentially driving trading volume and price movements on major exchanges.

Major On-Chain Error in USDT Sparks DeFi Risk Discussion

A major on-chain operational error involving $50.4 million in USDT has sparked heated discussion: the funds were exchanged for only 324 AAVE due to extreme slippage during the transaction. The Aave DAO subsequently announced a refund of approximately $600,000 in fees. This incident has sparked widespread concern within the community regarding slippage risks in DeFi transaction execution.

Hong Kong Stablecoin Licenses Imminent, Industry Moving Towards Compliance

Hong Kong is expected to issue its first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses within March. Sources indicate that HSBC, Standard Chartered, and the local virtual asset trading platform OSL are likely to receive the first licenses. This move signifies an acceleration of industry standardization and is expected to extend the application of Hong Kong dollar-pegged stablecoins from crypto scenarios to areas such as cross-border payments.

Ethereum ETFs See Net Inflows, Staking Becomes a New Focus

This week, Ethereum ETFs such as BlackRock's iShares Staked Ethereum Trust (ETHB) gained market attention, with a net inflow of approximately $57 million on the day. These ETFs not only offer spot exposure but also include 70-95% staking reward distributions, providing investors with new revenue streams.

Solana On-Chain Stablecoin Trading Volume Hits All-Time High This Month

Despite the recent poor performance of the SOL token price (a cumulative drop of approximately 45% over 30 days), its on-chain fundamentals remain strong. Stablecoin monthly trading volume on the Solana chain reached approximately $650 billion, a record high, indicating a continued increase in real-world on-chain financial activity.

Avalanche launches a staking ETF, boosting institutional interest

Grayscale launched the new Avalanche Trust Fund (GAVA), providing institutional investors with a compliant channel to participate in AVAX staking and earn returns. The launch of this financial product directly fueled market discussion and attention towards AVAX.

PayPay goes public, drawing attention to Binance Japan's shareholders

PayPay, Japan's largest cashless payment provider and a major shareholder of Binance Japan, went public on Nasdaq this week, with its share price rising 13.5% on its first day of trading. This highlights the deep integration between traditional payment giants and crypto exchanges, reflecting the capital market's interest in Web3-related companies.

Macroeconomic News

On March 11, the U.S. February CPI (unadjusted year-on-year) came in at 2.4%, matching the market expectation of 2.4% and unchanged from the previous reading of 2.4%；
On March 12, initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending March 7 were 213,000, below the expected 215,000, and the previous week's figure was revised from 213,000 to 214,000;
On March 13, the US core PCE price index rose further to 3.1% year-on-year in January, the highest level since March 2024, in line with market expectations;
On March 13, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March was 99.6%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike was 0.4%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by April was 93.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut was 6.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike was 0.4%.

ETFs

According to statistics, from March 9th to March 13th, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $762.8 million; as of March 13th, GBTC (Grayscale) experienced a total outflow of $25.889 billion, currently holding $11.1 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $55.509 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $94.584 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $117.4 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Industry Conferences

Solana Shanghai Builder Station will officially open on March 20th. This is a blockchain technology exchange and incubation center jointly built by Solana and the Shanghai Hongqiao Alibaba Center;
Digital Asset Summit 2026 will be held in New York, USA, from March 24th to 26th, 2026
EthCC 9 will be held in Cannes, France, from March 30th to April 2nd, 2026. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of Europe's largest and longest-running annual Ethereum events, focusing on technology and community development.
Hong Kong Web3 Festival 2026 will be held in Hong Kong, China, from April 20th to 23rd, 2026.
TOKEN2049 Dubai 2026 will be held in Dubai, UAE, from April 29th to 30th, 2026.

Project Progress

Noble will migrate from the Cosmos ecosystem to an independent EVM L1 network on March 18th.

Key Events

March 18, 22:30: US EIA crude oil inventory data (in thousands of barrels) for the week ending March 13;
March 19, 02:00: US Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) for the week ending March 18;
March 19, 20:00: UK Bank of England interest rate decision for the week ending March 19;
March 19, 20:30: US Initial jobless claims data (in thousands) for the week ending March 14;
March 19, 21:15: Eurozone European Central Bank deposit facility interest rate for the week ending March 19.

Token Unlocking

Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on March 16th, worth approximately $9.26 million, representing 1.78% of the circulating supply;
ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 173 million tokens on March 17th, worth approximately $3.29 million, representing 2.97% of the circulating supply;
Lombard (BARD) will unlock 30 million tokens on March 18th, worth approximately $32.28 million, representing 11.09% of the circulating supply;
YZY (YZY) will unlock 20.83 million tokens on March 19th, worth approximately $6.76 million, representing 4.9% of the circulating supply;
LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 25.7 million tokens on March 20th, worth approximately $54.24 million, representing 5.64% of the circulating supply;
KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 17.57 million tokens on March 20th, worth approximately $6.08 million, representing 5.19% of the circulating supply;
River (RIVER) will unlock 1.11 million tokens on March 22nd, worth approximately $16.14 million, representing 2.39% of the circulating supply;

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of the Hotcoin exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We analyze market trends for you through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Research Reports"; with our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers will also interact with you via live stream, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment inherently carries risk. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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Talaan ng mga Nilalaman

Crypto Market Performance
Understanding the Present
Weekly Highlights
Macroeconomic News
ETFs
Foreseeing the Future
Industry Conferences
Project Progress
Key Events
Token Unlocking
About Us
Risk Warning

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