The 2024 US presidential election is on the horizon, with cryptocurrency emerging as a pivotal topic of discussion. Its importance and influence have reached unprecedented heights. Both Trump and Biden, the main candidates, must address this rapidly growing market, integrating their attitudes and policy proposals on cryptocurrency into their campaign strategies.

1. Cryptocurrency: From Fringe to Electoral Chip

The history of cryptocurrency is a blend of innovation and controversy. From the birth of Bitcoin in 2009 to the existence of thousands of cryptocurrencies today, the journey has been one of skepticism to acceptance, gradually moving towards mainstream recognition. Initially, cryptocurrencies were experiments for a few tech enthusiasts. Over time, their value and influence grew, attracting more investors and institutions to this emerging market.

Due to its decentralized and anonymous nature, cryptocurrency has faced regulatory challenges and legal disputes. Governments and financial institutions worldwide have varied in their responses, with some countries embracing it and attempting to integrate it into regulatory frameworks, while others impose strict restrictions or outright bans.

1.1 Analyzing the Political Maneuvering Behind the Approval of the Ethereum ETF

Following the approval and listing of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF marks a significant milestone in the crypto market, signaling increased acceptance of Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies by the US government.

Initially, many Ethereum ETF proposals were rejected by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for reasons such as disputes over whether Ethereum is a security, market manipulation, and an incomplete regulatory framework. Political forces played a crucial role in the approval process. Democratic lawmakers who previously criticized such decisions largely remained silent. With the 2024 US presidential election approaching, political parties and candidates aim to present themselves as supporters of technological innovation and financial market reform. The approval of the Ethereum ETF is seen as a positive signal from the government towards the crypto market, helping to attract the support of young voters and the tech industry.

1.2 Cryptocurrency Policy Becoming a Key Topic in the US Election

In the 2024 US presidential election, cryptocurrency is becoming an important topic of discussion and a tool to garner votes. The attitudes and policy proposals of the main candidates, Trump and Biden, not only directly affect their voter base but could also have a profound impact on the entire crypto market.

People of color and young people were crucial to Biden's victory in the 2020 election. Polls show that these groups currently have higher cryptocurrency ownership rates than others. Gaining their support is a key aspect of the competition between Trump and Biden. For many voters, cryptocurrency is not just an investment tool but also a symbol of freedom and innovation. Particularly among young voters and tech enthusiasts, there is broad support for cryptocurrency. Thus, both Trump and Biden must include cryptocurrency policy proposals in their campaign strategies to win these voters’ support.

In the 2024 election, crypto companies like Coinbase and Ripple, as well as venture capital firms supporting crypto like a16z, have announced funding for cryptocurrency super PACs, trying to secure influence for the crypto industry through financial power.

2. US Cryptocurrency Policy and Key Election Milestones

Government policy attitudes directly affect cryptocurrency market price fluctuations and investor confidence. The US government's stance on cryptocurrency significantly influences global market trends. As a global financial center, policy changes in the US not only directly impact domestic markets but also set important precedents for global investors and regulatory policies in other countries.

In terms of regulation, the US government has generally maintained a cautious and conservative stance, focusing on preventing market manipulation, protecting investors, and combating financial crimes. The government regulates the crypto market through multiple agencies, including the SEC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN).

2.1 Trump’s Changing Attitude Towards Cryptocurrency

During Trump's administration, the US government's attitude towards cryptocurrency evolved. Initially, the Trump administration was skeptical and dismissive of cryptocurrency, considering it lacking intrinsic value and easily used for illegal activities. In 2019, Trump publicly stated on Twitter that he was not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, calling them "not money" and highlighting their potential use in illegal activities like drug trafficking and money laundering. This negative stance initially had a negative impact on the crypto market, causing unease among investors about future US crypto policy.

Over time, the Trump administration's stance began to shift. In December 2018, Trump appointed Bitcoin supporter Mick Mulvaney as White House Chief of Staff, signaling a more open attitude towards cryptocurrency. Additionally, Trump signed several executive orders related to fintech and blockchain technology during his tenure, aiming to promote innovation and technological development.

In the 2024 election, Trump’s stance has made a 180-degree turn. He has publicly expressed support for the development of cryptocurrency, stating that he wants to "ensure the future of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin happens in the US." He also said that if re-elected, he would pardon Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht on his first day in office. Trump has accepted cryptocurrency donations for his campaign, aiming to win voter support through policy adjustments. As of June 5, benefiting from the growth of meme coins he holds, Trump’s crypto assets have surpassed $30 million.

However, on June 4, Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in a Manhattan criminal trial, making him the first former US president in history to be convicted. This verdict adds unpredictable variables to the 2024 US presidential election.

2.2 Biden Administration’s Cryptocurrency Policy

For most of his term, the Biden administration has taken a conservative and cautious approach to cryptocurrency, focusing on strengthening regulation and risk prevention. Early in his term, the Biden administration, through the Treasury and the SEC, intensified regulatory efforts on the crypto market, issuing a series of regulatory measures targeting crypto exchanges and market participants.

As the election approaches, the Biden administration has also adjusted its policy stance. Recently, Biden's campaign team has started reaching out to crypto industry experts, including some whom Biden previously rejected, to seek guidance on crypto policy. On May 23, the US House of Representatives passed the "21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act" (FIT21), transferring regulatory authority over digital currencies from the SEC to the more industry-friendly CFTC. This legislation aims to clearly define the standards for making crypto tokens securities or commodities. Biden announced that he would not veto the FIT21 crypto bill if it passes.

Additionally, another presidential candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., also affirmed the significance of crypto technology, calling it a symbol of freedom and transparency. During his campaign, he purchased 21 Bitcoins and bought 3 Bitcoins for each of his children to show support for cryptocurrency as a means of transaction.

2.3 Key Election Dates

As the election progresses, candidates' attitudes and policy proposals on cryptocurrency will significantly impact the market. Key election dates include:

• June 27: First Debate Presidential debates can greatly influence the election landscape. Candidates' attitudes and policy proposals on cryptocurrency will gain more exposure, potentially causing market reactions.

• July 15-18: Republican National Convention During the convention, candidates will officially accept nominations and outline their campaign platforms. If Trump further clarifies his support for cryptocurrency, the market could be positively influenced.

• August 19-22: Democratic National Convention Similar to the Republican convention, Biden will officially accept the nomination. If the Biden team announces new crypto-friendly policies, it could positively impact the market.

• September 10: Second Debate The second debate provides another crucial opportunity for candidates to engage. Any discussions on crypto policy could cause market fluctuations.

• November 5: General Election Election day is the most critical milestone. The election results will directly influence the direction of cryptocurrency policy over the next four years, with the market potentially experiencing significant volatility post-election.

• December 2024: Electoral College Vote The Electoral College vote will confirm the president-elect. Though less critical than the general election, it could still impact the market, especially if election results are contested.

• January 20, 2025: Inauguration Day The president-elect will take the oath of office. The inaugural address and subsequent policy statements will significantly influence the crypto market.

3. Popular Tokens in the 2024 US Presidential Election

Various cryptocurrencies related to the candidates have become focal points in the market, reflecting investors' expectations and confidence in the candidates' policies. These tokens are not only speculative assets but also important ways to express political stances and cultural identities.

MAGA ($MAGA) 

Named after Trump’s campaign slogan "Make America Great Again," $MAGA has become one of the most watched cryptocurrencies in this election. It represents Trump’s political ideals and connects supporters through blockchain technology. Since the beginning of 2024, $MAGA has shown impressive market performance with multiple significant increases.

Doland Tremp ($TREMP) 

Another popular token related to Trump, $TREMP cleverly plays on Trump’s name. It has gained widespread market attention since its issuance, especially as Trump frequently mentions cryptocurrency in his campaign. $TREMP is designed to support Trump’s campaign while offering investors a chance to express their political stance.

Jeo Boden ($BODEN) 

Named after Joe Biden, $BODEN has also garnered attention in this election. It aims to support Biden’s campaign and attract investors who favor Biden’s crypto policies. Unlike Trump-related tokens, $BODEN has shown stable market performance, supported by Biden’s gradually friendlier stance towards crypto.

DAO Governance ($PEOPLE) 

The $PEOPLE token represents the concept of a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO). It is a donation certificate from ConstitutionDAO, which aimed to raise funds through a DAO to bid on the last privately-owned first edition of the US Constitution at a Sotheby’s auction, challenging traditional capital. Although the bid failed, it was seen as a challenge to traditional capital by a decentralized organization.

Populist American Coin ($USA) 

The $USA token has strong populist attributes, with promotional materials similar to the US Declaration of Independence, giving $USA significant cultural and political significance. Holders of $USA are typically investors with strong identification with American culture and history, using the token to express their political and cultural identity.

Meme Coin ($PEPE) 

Known for its humor and satire, the $PEPE token has carved out a unique niche in the crypto market. During the US election, $PEPE has become a hot topic among investors. The Pepe meme became associated with the US presidential election in 2016. $PEPE holders are mainly young investors who enjoy humor and satire, using the token to express their views on political and social phenomena.

Trump Team Accepts Donations in Eight Cryptocurrencies

On May 22, Trump’s campaign team launched a webpage (https://www.donaldjtrump.com/crypto) allowing donors to contribute to Trump’s joint fundraising committee via Coinbase. The team accepts donations in BTC, ETH, DOGE, SHIB, XRP, USDC, SOL, and 0x (ZRX). This move not only expands Trump’s funding sources but also shows his recognition and support for cryptocurrency. Following this announcement, these tokens saw rapid market reactions, with prices generally rising.

4. Outlook on US Elections and Crypto Policy

The 2024 US presidential election will have a profound and complex impact on the crypto market. Whether Trump is re-elected or Biden is re-elected, there will be different levels of impact on the crypto market.

4.1 Trump or Biden?

If Trump is re-elected, he is expected to continue his friendly policy towards cryptocurrency. His frequent support for crypto during the campaign and acceptance of crypto donations indicate his recognition and emphasis on this emerging market. Trump might push for more relaxed regulatory policies, reducing market restrictions and encouraging innovation and development. However, Trump's decision-making style is often aggressive and volatile, potentially causing significant market fluctuations.

If Biden is re-elected, he might adopt a more balanced approach. His administration has shown an emphasis on crypto regulation but also gradually recognized the importance of the crypto market, adjusting some policies. Biden is likely to continue strengthening crypto regulation while acknowledging its potential. Compared to Trump, Biden’s policy style is relatively moderate and stable, potentially leading to higher market stability.

According to a Paradigm survey, this year, crypto holders tend to favor Trump over Biden, with a ratio of 48% to 39%, with 13% undecided.

4.2 Future Trends in US Crypto Policy

In the coming years, US government policies in the crypto field will continue to influence global market development. Regardless of whether Trump or Biden wins, the following policy trends may emerge:

1. Encouragement of Blockchain Technology Innovation and Application: Recognizing the potential and innovation of crypto technology, particularly in finance, logistics, and healthcare, the government may adopt a more rational and transparent attitude. Regulatory agencies will more actively engage in crypto development to protect public interests rather than viewing crypto as a threat.

2. Improvement of the Regulatory Framework: The US government will further improve the regulatory framework for cryptocurrency, including market manipulation monitoring, anti-money laundering measures, transparent trading rules, and investor protection mechanisms.

3. Tax Policy Adjustments: As the crypto market expands, the government might adjust tax policies to better manage and collect taxes on crypto transactions.

As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, cryptocurrency will play an increasingly important role in this political battle. Over the next few months, we will witness the further elevation of cryptocurrency’s status in political, economic, and social spheres, and observe how it influences election outcomes and market trends. Investors need to closely monitor policy dynamics and formulate scientific investment strategies to navigate uncertain market environments and seize potential investment opportunities.

Hotcoin is closely monitoring the progress of the US election and its potential impact on the crypto market. It has listed $MAGA, $TREMP, $PEOPLE, $PEPE, and the eight cryptocurrencies accepted by Trump’s campaign team (BTC, ETH, DOGE, SHIB, XRP, USDC, SOL, and ZRX). Hotcoin will continue to monitor and list relevant high-quality assets. For crypto investments, come to Hotcoin, where the hottest quality assets are accessible first!

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