U.S.-Iran Tensions Escalate as Crypto Market Faces a Risk-Off Test Hotcoin Research | July 13–17, 2026

Crypto Market Performance

• A regulatory bill vote could trigger market volatility
• Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions may weigh on risk appetite
• A quiet macro data calendar and elevated derivatives leverage

Market Highlights

1. Trump Pushes for CLARITY Act as Key White House Crypto Adviser Prepares to Step Down This week, U.S. President Donald Trump publicly urged the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act in memory of the late Senator Lindsey Graham. The bill aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the crypto market and has received support from major industry participants. However, it has stalled amid strong opposition from the banking sector to its stablecoin yield provisions. Meanwhile, senior White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt is set to leave his post on July 24 to begin mandatory JAG training with the National Guard, adding further uncertainty to the bill’s prospects.
2. U.S. and U.K. Deepen Digital Asset Cooperation as Japan Passes New Crypto Legislation The U.S.-U.K. Transatlantic Working Group issued a joint statement supporting innovation in regulated stablecoins and exploring cross-border financing solutions for tokenized assets. Meanwhile, Japan's upper house passed a revised version of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, bringing crypto assets within the country’s financial instruments framework. Japan also plans to reduce the top tax rate on crypto gains from 55% to a flat 20% by 2028, while laying the groundwork for the potential approval of crypto ETFs.
3. SEC Meets With Hyperliquid and TradeXYZ to Discuss On-Chain Derivatives Regulation The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s Crypto Task Force met with decentralized perpetual futures platforms Hyperliquid and TradeXYZ this week to discuss a potential regulatory framework for decentralized perpetual markets. HYPE rose approximately 4.4% following the news. Hyperliquid had previously held similar discussions with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
4. U.S. Government Transfers Nearly 4,000 BTC to Coinbase Prime, Raising Sell-Off Concerns On-chain data showed that approximately 3,800 BTC, worth around $288 million, and 30,000 ETH linked to U.S. government seizure cases were transferred to Coinbase Prime this week. Although the transfers may have been part of a custody-related adjustment, market participants remain wary of potential selling pressure.
5. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Snap Outflow Streak With $181 Million in Net Inflows On July 14, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded combined net inflows of $181 million, ending their recent outflow streak. BlackRock’s IBIT led the group with $139 million in single-day net inflows.
6. Market Sentiment Diverges as FOMO Around XRP and ETH Reaches a Five-Week High Data from crypto analytics firm Santiment showed that the long-to-short ratios for XRP and ETH reached five-week highs, indicating elevated market FOMO. By comparison, sentiment around Bitcoin remained more subdued, which some analysts believe could leave room for further upside.
7. JPMorgan: Strategy’s Cash Reserve Build Is a Positive Signal MicroStrategy, now known as Strategy, increased its cash reserves to $3 billion through equity sales amid unrealized losses on its Bitcoin holdings. JPMorgan analysts described the move, together with positive flows in Bitcoin futures markets, as encouraging signals.
8. Aave, Jito, and Other Major Projects Face Key Catalysts This Week Several major crypto projects recorded notable developments this week. Jito’s perpetual futures platform JTX went live on July 14, while Aave Labs is preparing to launch a high-yield savings app. Maple Finance opened a vote on a revenue-linked token buyback proposal, while Pump.fun faces a token unlock worth more than $100 million, equivalent to 20.3% of its circulating supply. The unlock is widely viewed as a significant downside risk.
9. Crypto Venture Funding Reaches $8.658 Billion in H1 2026 as M&A Activity Accelerates Crypto venture funding totaled $8.658 billion across 259 funding rounds in the first half of 2026. DeFi and infrastructure were the most active sectors for investment. Industry consolidation also accelerated, with 75 mergers and acquisitions recorded during the period.
10. New Fed Chair Makes Congressional Debut as June Inflation Data Is Released New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh appeared before Congress for the first time in his new role this week. June CPI data released on the same day showed that inflation had eased, with the annual rate falling from 4.2% to 3.8%. Lower-than-expected PPI data also reduced concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes and supported sentiment toward risk assets, including crypto.

Macro Update

• On July 14, data showed that U.S. CPI rose 3.5% year over year in June on an unadjusted basis, down from 4.2% previously and below the market forecast of 3.8%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI fell 0.4% month over month, marking the largest monthly decline since April 2020.
• On July 16, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11 came in at 208,000, below expectations of 217,000. The previous week's figure was revised from 215,000 to 216,000.
• According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged in July is now 88.9%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 11.1%.

Looking Ahead

Industry Conferences

• Canadian Blockchain Week 2026 will be held in Toronto, Canada from July 20 to 26.
• Malaysia Blockchain Week 2026 will be held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia from July 29 to 30.
• Conviction 2026 will be held in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, from August 14 to 15.
• Coinfest Asia 2026 will be held in Bali, Indonesia, from August 20 to 21.

Key Events

• The U.S. Senate plans to begin consideration of the CLARITY Act during the week of July 20.
• At 12:30 (UTC) on July 23, the U.S. will release initial jobless claims data for the week ending July 18.

Project Updates

• LTP's Liquidity Arena 2026, the world's first AI Agent Live Trading Championship, will officially begin on July 20.
• Cango will conduct a 1-for-10 reverse stock split on July 20.
• GRVT, the native token of decentralized derivatives exchange Grvt, is scheduled to launch on July 21.
• Beginning July 24, 2026, daily WLD token unlocks will decrease from approximately 5.1 million to 2.9 million, representing a 43% reduction.

Token Unlocks

• Solv Protocol (SOLV) will unlock 398 million tokens on July 17, worth approximately $1.06 million, representing 9.24% of its circulating supply.
• LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 25.7 million tokens on July 20, worth approximately $21 million, representing 4.6% of the circulating supply.
• KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 17.6 million tokens on July 20, worth approximately $13.36 million, representing 4.3% of the circulating supply.
• aPriori (APR) will unlock 31.88 million tokens on July 23, worth approximately $6.93 million, representing 11.28% of the circulating supply.
• SOON (SOON) will unlock 20.18 million tokens on July 23, worth approximately $3.35 million, representing 3.91% of the circulating supply.
• SoSoValue (SOSO) will unlock 23.42 million tokens on July 24, worth approximately $6.77 million, representing 6.78% of the circulating supply.

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