Crypto Market Performance

Market Forecast (January 12–18)

• BTC’s core trading range is expected between $89,500 and $94,000,
• ETH is likely to fluctuate between $3,100 and $3,350
• SOL between $116 and $145.

Macroeconomic Factors

Understanding the Present:

A Review of the Week's Major Events

1. January 3 — After 2 PM Beijing time, a large explosion was reported in Caracas, Venezuela, triggering air raid sirens and a power outage near a major military base. The crypto market may have experienced a brief pullback following the event.
2. January 3 — According to a CBS News reporter’s social media post, US officials revealed that President Trump ordered strikes on targets in Venezuela, including military facilities, escalating pressure on the Maduro administration.
3. January 6 — Business Insider reported that an insider earned hundreds of thousands of dollars by accurately betting on the political future of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, prompting a US congressman to propose restrictions on government officials engaging in similar trades.
4. January 6 — CoinDesk reported that Buck Labs launched the BUCK token, positioned as a “savings coin” for non-US users, offering yield on dollar-denominated crypto assets rather than traditional stablecoins.
5. January 7 — According to Bitget TradFi data, spot gold and silver began a strong rebound on January 3. Gold briefly touched $4,500, just $50 below its all-time high, while silver rose above $82, reaching $82.4, up 15% on the week.
6. January 8 — US December ADP employment data showed a moderate labor-market recovery. As a result, the probability of a January rate cut on CME’s FedWatch fell to 11.1%, down from 17.7% the previous day.
7. January 7 — Falcon Finance announced a new off-chain Bitcoin yield vault designed for long-term BTC holders, offering expected annualized returns of 3% to 5%, paid in its USD-denominated asset, USDf.
8. January 8 — Bank of America upgraded Coinbase to “Buy,” citing faster product expansion, strategic adjustments, and a more attractive valuation after the stock declined roughly 40% from its July high.
9. January 9 — SIFMA held a closed-door meeting with several crypto industry representatives to discuss disagreements in the US crypto market structure bill, with progress reported on DeFi-related provisions.

Macroeconomic News

1. January 7 — US December ADP employment came in at 41,000, below the expected 47,000 and above the previous month’s negative 32,000, indicating weaker-than-expected private-sector hiring.
2. January 8 — US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3 totaled 208,000, below the expected 210,000. The prior week’s figure was revised upward from 199,000 to 200,000.
3. January 9 — The US December unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, beating expectations of 4.5% and improving from 4.6% in the previous month.
4. January 9 — According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in January stood at 12.6%, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged was 87.4%.

ETFs

Future Outlook

Project Progress

1. Before January 13 — Monad Momentum will notify applicants of the results from its second round of applications.
2. January 13 — Nasdaq-listed medical technology company Semler Scientific will hold a special meeting to vote on its merger with Bitcoin reserve firm Strive. After completion, the combined entity is expected to hold nearly 13,000 BTC, placing it among the world’s top five corporate Bitcoin holders.
3. January 14 — The Aster Phase Four airdrop query will open. The claim window will open on January 28.
4. January 14 at 10:30 AM — The BSC Fermi hard fork will go live, reducing block time from 750 milliseconds to 450 milliseconds, significantly improving network throughput and transaction processing efficiency.
5. January 15 — BitMine will hold its annual shareholder meeting at the Wynn Hotel in Las Vegas.
6. January 15 — MSCI will decide whether to remove Strategy from its indices.
7. By January 18 — the UK Financial Conduct Authority will close applications for its stablecoin regulatory sandbox for local issuers.

Important Events

1. January 13 at 21:30 — The US will release its December CPI year-on-year inflation data.
2. January 15 at 21:30 — The US will publish initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10.

Token Unlocking Schedule

1. January 11 — Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.31 million tokens, worth approximately $21.04 million, representing 0.7% of the circulating supply.
2. January 15 — Starknet (STRK) will unlock 126 million tokens, valued at approximately $10.95 million, representing 4.83% of the circulating supply.
3. January 15 — Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.56 million tokens, worth approximately $6.89 million, representing 1.05% of the circulating supply.
4. January 16 — Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens, valued at approximately $19.55 million, representing 1.86% of the circulating supply.
5. January 17 — ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 175 million tokens, worth approximately $5.79 million, representing 3.16% of the circulating supply.

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