Macroeconomic Upheavals: Unexpectedly Weak Non-Farm Payrolls and Middle East Conflicts Reshape Market Logic. Hotcoin Research | March 2–6, 2026
Crypto Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies stands at $2.42 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59% at $1.42 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $312.8 billion, up 1.17% over the past 7 days, with USDT accounting for 58.81%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most posted gains, with only a small number declining. Specifically, BTC rose 5.96% over the past 7 days, ETH increased 2.83%, SOL rose 2.31%, RIVER surged 71.07%, and BARD climbed 76.66%.
This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $568 million, while US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $23.1 million.
Market Forecast (March 9th - March 15th):
BTC: $65,000–75,000 ($65,000 is a key psychological and support level; a break below this level could lead to further declines)
ETH: $1,900–2,180 (In extreme cases, it may test the previous low of $1,830)
SOL: $80–100 (SOL spot ETFs have seen net institutional inflows for 23 consecutive days)
Currently, the RSI is 44.46 (neutral), the Fear & Greed Index stands at 13 (extreme fear), and the Altcoin Index is 45 (neutral, consistent with last week).
Unexpectedly weak employment data has fueled expectations of a rate cut: US non-farm payrolls in February came far below expectations, marking the first negative growth since 2020. This report quickly increased market bets on a Fed rate cut this year. In theory, expectations of rate cuts are beneficial for risk assets, bringing a glimmer of hope for improved liquidity in the crypto market.
At the same time, stagflation fears have gripped the market, plunging it into a dilemma. However, the situation is more complex. Escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have driven a surge in international oil prices, with Brent crude recording a record weekly gain. The combination of shrinking employment, strong wages, and rising oil prices has triggered deep concerns about stagflation.
In this environment, the Federal Reserve faces a policy dilemma, and risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) came under pressure after an initial reaction due to concerns about the economic outlook. Reports indicate that after the non-farm payroll report was released, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fell by more than 4%.
Overall, next week the market will enter a period of digesting macroeconomic data. The biggest risk is that stagflation fears may continue to intensify, suppressing risk assets. The biggest opportunity lies in improved liquidity brought about by repricing expectations of interest rate cuts once market sentiment stabilizes. SOL, supported by strong institutional inflows, may exhibit relative strength.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Highlights
-
Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly, Breaking $73,000
The cryptocurrency market witnessed a V-shaped reversal this week, with Bitcoin rebounding strongly from its weekend lows and breaking through the $73,000 mark on March 5, reaching a new recent high. On March 4, Bitcoin even briefly surpassed $71,000, triggering liquidations for more than 120,000 traders across the network.
-
Ethereum Returns to $2,100 as Major Cryptocurrencies Rise
As a market bellwether, Bitcoin’s stabilization directly boosted market liquidity. Ethereum (ETH) recorded a nearly 8% rebound this week, successfully returning above $2,100. Other major cryptocurrencies such as BNB, XRP, and Solana also followed suit, rising by more than 4%.
-
Bitcoin’s “Digital Gold” Narrative Faces a Test Amid Geopolitical Turmoil
Escalating tensions in the Middle East last weekend sent Bitcoin plunging to $63,000. However, the market quickly recovered this week, with Bitcoin even outperforming gold, which declined during the same period. This led some traders to view Bitcoin as a potential safe-haven asset amid geopolitical turmoil.
-
Institutional Funds Surge, with Net Inflows Exceeding $680 Million in Two Days
Wall Street capital has become a key driver of the recent rebound. Data shows that, in just two trading days—March 2 and March 3—net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $680 million. Institutional investors’ entry into the $65,000–$67,000 range is widely seen as crucial support for the market rebound.
-
Trump Calls for Crypto Legislation, CFTC Chairman Responds Positively
On March 4, US President Donald Trump urged Congress to expedite the passage of a bill on the structure of the cryptocurrency market. Subsequently, Mike Selig, Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that the CLARITY Act should be passed as soon as possible and that perpetual futures linked to cryptocurrencies in the US are imminent. These positive regulatory signals boosted market sentiment.
-
Improving Macroeconomic Data Provides Support for the Crypto Market
The latest US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has remained above 50 for two consecutive months, indicating that economic activity is in an expansionary phase. Analysts believe improvements in the macroeconomic environment typically boost investor risk appetite, supporting risk assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins.
-
Public Chain Ecosystems Advance: Polygon Hard Fork and Astar Voting
This week saw continued progress across major public chain ecosystems. Polygon (MATIC) completed a hard fork upgrade to Lisovo on March 4. Astar Network (ASTR) launched a community vote on Tokenomics 3.0 on March 3. Additionally, Flare Networks delivered a keynote presentation on XRP’s financial applications.
-
Market Focus Shifts to Altcoins, but a Broad Rally Still Faces Resistance
With Bitcoin stabilizing, discussions around altcoin season have intensified again. Some analysts note that the altcoin market capitalization dominance chart shows signs of a potential breakout. However, on-chain data indicate that approximately 38% of altcoins remain near historical lows, suggesting weak market participation and a broad rally still faces resistance from oversupply and limited liquidity.
-
Coinbase Expands Business, Opens Stock Trading to All US Users
This week, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced the launch of its stock trading feature for all US users, alongside a partnership with Yahoo Finance. Users can now research assets on Yahoo Finance and then switch to Coinbase with a single click to execute trades. This move marks another step in Coinbase’s transformation into a comprehensive financial services platform.
Macroeconomics
-
On March 4, US ADP employment figures for February showed an increase of 63,000, the largest rise since November 2025, exceeding market expectations of 50,000. The previous figure was 22,000.
-
On March 5, initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 28 reached 213,000, the highest level since the week ending February 7, but still below the market expectation of 215,000.
-
On March 6, the US unemployment rate for February was 4.4%, compared with an expected 4.3% and a previous reading of 4.3%.
-
On March 6, according to CME’s FedWatch data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March was 3.3%, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged was 96.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by April was 86.4%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points was 13.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points was 0.4%.
ETFs
According to statistics, from March 2 to March 6, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $568 million. As of March 6, GBTC (Grayscale) has experienced a total outflow of $25.863 billion and currently holds $10.652 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $52.904 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs stands at $90.366 billion.
US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $23.1 million.
Looking to the Future Industry Conferences
-
EthCC 9 will be held in Cannes, France, from March 30 to April 2, 2026. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of Europe’s largest and longest-running annual Ethereum events, focusing on technology and community development.
-
Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will be held in Hong Kong, China, from April 20 to April 23, 2026.
-
TOKEN2049 Dubai 2026 will be held in Dubai, UAE, from April 29 to April 30, 2026.
Key Events
-
March 11, 20:30: The US will release February’s CPI year-on-year data (unadjusted).
-
March 12, 20:30: The US will release initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending March 7.
-
March 13, 20:30: The US will release January’s core PCE price index year-on-year data.
-
March 8, 15:00: North America will begin observing Daylight Saving Time, and US stock trading will start one hour earlier.
-
The UK Financial Services Regulatory Commission has launched an investigation into stablecoins, with the deadline for submitting written comments set for March 11, 2026.
Token Unlocking
-
Movement (MOVE) will unlock 161 million tokens on March 9, worth approximately $3.71 million, representing 5.18% of the circulating supply.
-
Linea (LINEA) will unlock 137 million tokens on March 10, worth approximately $4.44 million, representing 5.62% of the circulating supply.
-
Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on March 12, worth approximately $11.28 million, representing 0.69% of the circulating supply.
-
Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on March 15, worth approximately $5.08 million, representing 4.4% of the circulating supply.
-
Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.14 million tokens on March 15, worth approximately $3.75 million, representing 1% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, the core research institution of the Hotcoin exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for your investment decisions. Through our “Weekly Insights” and “In-Depth Research Reports,” we analyze market trends to help investors stay informed.
Through our exclusive column “Hot Coin Selection” (AI + expert dual screening), we help identify potential assets while reducing trial-and-error costs.
Each week, our researchers also connect with the community through live sessions to interpret trending topics and forecast market developments. We believe that professional guidance and reliable insights can help more investors navigate market cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing inherently carries risk. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
Mail: labs@hotcoin.com
Lectura recomendada
Ver más
Hotcoin Investment and Financing Weekly Report (10.05-10.11) | 17 Events, Financing Data Remains Steady Compared to Last Week
Weekly Insights
Trump and Musk Fall Out Over “Big Beautiful Bill” – Crypto Responds with a Downturn
Weekly Insights
TRUMP and Other Celebrity Tokens Experience Severe Drain, Stablecoins Continue to Increase, Crypto Market Poised for Growth | Hotcoin Research Market Insights: January 20 - January 24, 2025
Weekly Insights
