The Real Test Is Coming: Buy the Dip Now or Wait for a Deeper Pullback? Hotcoin Research | June 1-5, 2026

Weekly Insights

Updated on2026-08-21

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Crypto Market Overview

Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrency stands at $2.18 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.2% ($1.27 trillion). The market value of stablecoins stands at $316.4 billion, down 1.15% over the last 7 days, with USDT accounting for 59.04%.

Among the top 200 cryptocurrencies on CoinMarketCap, only a small number posted gains, while the majority moved lower. Over the past 7 days, BTC declined 14.07%, ETH fell 15.99%, and SOL dropped 19.33%. Meanwhile, BEAT and SIREN surged 200.37% and 162.07%, respectively.

This week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $1.723 billion, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $174 million.

Market Outlook (June 8–14):

The RSI stands at 45.55 (neutral, higher than last week), the Fear & Greed Index is 11 (Fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is 48 (neutral).

BTC: $59,000–70,600 (watch this week’s CPI data)

ETH: $1,500–1,850 (weak rebound)

SOL: $55–76 (very weak)

Risk Factors to Watch:

Risk of an Upside CPI Surprise (June 10) (if the data exceeds expectations, it may trigger panic selling in the crypto market, and BTC could quickly retest the $60,000 level)
Risk of a Breakdown Below the $59,000 Support Level (if BTC falls below this key level, large-scale leveraged liquidation may trigger cascading liquidations and further downside)
Continued ETF Outflows and Rate-Hike Expectations (falling prices could trigger additional selling pressure, reinforcing a self-perpetuating negative feedback loop)

Is It Time to Buy the Dip?

Market sentiment and technical indicators are sending mixed signals. On one hand, extreme oversold conditions and elevated market fear often suggest that a market bottom may be approaching. On the other hand, macro uncertainty around the upcoming CPI release remains a key overhang, making any entry at this point more of a high-risk bet than a clear opportunity. This week’s CPI data may therefore become the key trigger for the market’s next move. On June 6, the Ahr999 bottom-buying indicator reached 0.3, close to its historical low of 0.27. Aggressive investors may consider building a small position around the $60,000 level, while more conservative investors may prefer to wait for the CPI release before making a decision. If BTC loses the $60,000 level, a more attractive entry zone may emerge in the $50,000–$59,999 range.

Market Highlights

Bitcoin Falls Below $62,000 as the Market Faces a Sharp Sell-Off

The cryptocurrency market has experienced one of its worst weeks so far this year. The price of Bitcoin has fallen from about $74,000, with a weekly drop of more than 17%, hitting a low of $60,867. The total crypto market capitalization fell to $2.1 trillion, wiping out around 15% in a single week. The Fear & Greed Index fell to 14, entering the “Extreme Fear” zone.

Digital Asset Funds Hit the Second-Largest Weekly Net Outflow of the Year

Market risk aversion intensified, with capital outflows accelerating. According to CoinShares data, global digital asset investment products had a net outflow of $1.67 billion in a single week, marking the third consecutive week of outflows. Bitcoin products alone saw net outflows of $1.438 billion, marking the largest weekly outflow so far in 2026.

MicroStrategy (Strategy) Discloses Bitcoin Sale

As the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed that it has sold 32 BTC. Although the amount is small, this move, combined with the news that its unrealized losses on the books once reached approximately $10.8 billion, heightened market concerns about its financial situation and is considered to be one of the factors that triggered market panic.

Binance Announces U.S. Stock Trading Portal, Expanding Into Traditional Finance

Binance announced the launch of a U.S. stock trading portal that supports users to trade more than 7,000 U.S. stocks and ETFs and provides 24-hour trading services. The service is executed through regulated broker Alpaca, and Binance plans to launch a stock tokenization program called "bStocks" with the goal of creating a multi-asset financial super app.

Coinbase Launches Pre-IPO Perpetuals and Direct INR Payment Support

Coinbase has launched Pre-IPO perpetuals tied to unlisted companies, allowing users to speculate on the valuations of soon-to-be-listed unicorn firms. At the same time, the company launched direct INR payment support in the Indian market to expand its presence in emerging markets.

Major U.S. Banks Join Forces to Launch Tokenized Deposit Network

A number of large U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup, are planning to jointly launch a tokenized deposit network through The Clearing House. The move is seen as a direct response by traditional financial institutions to the growing dominance of stablecoins such as USDT and aims to provide regulated on-chain settlement in dollars.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Promotes the CLARITY Act and Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant called on lawmakers to pass the CLARITY Act (Crypto-Asset Regulatory Clarity Act) as soon as possible during the hearing to establish a regulatory framework. At the same time, he admitted that the United States’ “strategic Bitcoin reserve” is still in “uncharted territory” at a practical level and has not yet been put into operation.

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party Proposes a Framework for Yen Stablecoins and Cryptocurrency ETFs

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) formally proposed a proposal on June 1, urging the government to promote stablecoins backed by the yen as cross-border settlement tools in Asia and establish a legal framework for cryptocurrency ETFs, aiming to strengthen the international status of the yen and attract institutional funds.

TON Announces Name Change to “Gram”, Drawing Attention to Quantum Threats

Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced that Toncoin (TON) will be renamed "Gram" (Gram), the original name of its white paper, and the migration is expected to take three weeks.

In addition, Ethereum developer Justin Drake predicted that quantum computers have a 50% probability of breaking the Bitcoin encryption algorithm before 2032. This "Q-Day" threat warning has attracted attention in the industry against quantum cryptography.

Trump-Related Stablecoin USD1 Delisted by HTX

Because the issuer froze the address funds related to the exchange, HTX Exchange announced that it would delist the Trump-related stablecoin USD1 and convert its balance to USDT. This incident highlights the counterparty and operational risks behind centralized stablecoins.

Macroeconomics

On June 4, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 30 was 225,000, compared with the expected 213,000. The previous value was revised from 215,000 to 212,000.
On June 3, the U.S. May ADP employment number was 122,000, compared with the expectation of 117,000 and the previous value of 109,000.
On June 7, according to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June is now 96.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 3.3%.

ETFs

From June 1 to 7, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $1.723 billion. As of June 7, GBTC (Grayscale) had recorded cumulative outflows of $26.676 billion and held $8.742 billion in assets, while IBIT (BlackRock) held $49.226 billion. The total market value of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs stood at $81.01 billion.

U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of $174 million during the same period.

Looking Ahead

Industry Conferences

ETHConf will be held in New York City from June 8 to 10.
Sharplink, SNZ and ETH HK Hub will host the "Sharplink Community Breakfast @ ETH HK Hub" in Hong Kong from 9:00 - 12:00 on June 9.
BTC Prague will be held from June 11 to 13 in Prague, Czech Republic.
IVS2026 KYOTO will be held in Kyoto, Japan, from July 1 to 3, 2026.
WebX 2026 will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from July 13 to 14, 2026.

Key Events

CME Group plans to launch Nasdaq CME Crypto Index Futures on June 8, 2026, pending final regulatory approval.
Elon Musk’s rocket company SpaceX plans to officially go public on June 12, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
On June 10 at 20:30, the U.S. will release May CPI (YoY, Not Seasonally Adjusted).
On June 10 at 20:30, the U.S. will release May CPI (MoM, Seasonally Adjusted).
On June 11 at 20:15, the Eurozone will release the ECB Deposit Facility Rate decision.
On June 11 at 20:30, the U.S. will release Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending June 6.

Project Progress

The Arbitrum Foundation proposes to apply for $43.5 million in funding for operations in 2027, and a formal on-chain vote is expected to be launched on June 8.
Coinbase will launch perpetual stock index futures on June 8.
Aveo’s legacy Ribbon vaults are closed, with withdrawal support open until June 12, 2026.

Token Unlocking

Linea (LINEA) will unlock 108 million tokens on June 10, worth approximately $2.74 million, accounting for 3.77% of the circulating supply.
io.net (IO) will unlock 13.26 million tokens on June 11, worth approximately $1.83 million, accounting for 3.77% of the circulating supply.
Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on June 12, worth approximately $7.58 million, accounting for 0.67% of the circulating supply.
Starknet (STRK) will unlock 126 million tokens on June 15, worth approximately $4.28 million, accounting for 3.89% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research is the research and insights division of Hotcoin, dedicated to transforming market intelligence into actionable investment insights. Through Weekly Insights and In-Depth Research Reports, we help users understand market trends, key narratives, and emerging opportunities across the digital asset ecosystem. Our exclusive Hotcoin Elite Picks series combines AI-powered screening with expert analysis to identify potential assets and reduce research costs. Through regular livestreams, our research team also provides timely analysis of market trends and major industry developments.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and investing inherently carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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Crypto Market Overview
Market Highlights
Macroeconomics
ETFs
Looking Ahead
Industry Conferences
Key Events
Project Progress
Token Unlocking
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Risk Disclaimer