On-Chain Whale Activity and Policy Uncertainty: Bitcoin Near $65K Awaits the FOMC Decision Hotcoin Research | July 20-July 24, 2026

Crypto Market Performance

• Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting: Policy uncertainty remains the key near-term market risk.
• CLARITY Act: Stalled legislative progress has weakened policy-driven market sentiment.
• AI Bubble and Macro Risks: A sharp correction in AI-related equities could trigger a broad sell-off across the crypto market.

Market Highlights

1. Trump Signals Support for the CLARITY Act Reports early this week indicated that U.S. President Donald Trump had agreed to key ethics provisions in the CLARITY Act, removing a major obstacle to legislation aimed at clarifying the regulatory framework for digital assets. The news briefly lifted market sentiment, pushing BTC close to $67,000, its highest level in more than a month, while crypto-related stocks also rallied sharply.
2. Updated Draft Introduces Tougher Ethics Provisions Republican senators later released an updated draft of the bill containing stricter ethics provisions. The revised version would prohibit the U.S. president and federal officials from issuing, sponsoring, or promoting digital assets. Violations could result in fines of up to $250,000 per day. The market viewed the revisions as a direct attempt to curb the Trump family's crypto ventures and address potential conflicts of interest involving public officials.
3. Legislative Outlook Becomes More Uncertain Despite plans by the Senate majority leader to advance the bill before the August recess, Democratic opposition to its enforcement provisions, combined with concerns over Trump's reported crypto-related income exceeding $1 billion, has made the 60-vote threshold increasingly difficult to achieve. As a result, market optimism has begun to fade.
4. Markets Turn Cautious as Optimism Fades As the probability of the bill's passage on Polymarket fell to 32%, crypto-related stocks came under pressure. Coinbase (COIN) dropped more than 5.5%, Circle (CRCL) fell 6.9%, and BTC retreated to around $65,000.
5. Bitcoin Sees Largest Exchange Outflow Since April On July 20, approximately $686 million worth of BTC flowed out of major exchanges, including Binance and Coinbase, marking the largest single-day net outflow since April. Such large-scale exchange outflows are generally viewed as a strong accumulation signal, as they reduce the amount of BTC available for immediate selling.
6. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Return to Net Inflows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded sustained net inflows this week, reversing the outflow trend seen since June. On July 20 alone, net inflows reached $227 million, indicating renewed institutional interest in Bitcoin exposure.
7. Geopolitical Risks Cap Bitcoin's Rebound Bitcoin encountered resistance near $67,000 as escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on market sentiment. Rising oil prices driven by the worsening U.S.-Iran conflict reignited inflation concerns, reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and limiting upside across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
8. Markets Stay Cautious Ahead of the FOMC Prediction market data shows a 93% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its July 28–29 meeting. With investors awaiting clearer policy signals, the market is expected to remain range-bound in the near term.
9. DOJ Cracks Down on Investment Fraud The U.S. Department of Justice announced this week that it had seized more than $25 million in cryptocurrency linked to a cross-border investment fraud scheme targeting victims in the United States and Canada. The seizure is part of the Department's broader anti-fraud initiative, which has recovered more than $800 million in assets to date.
10. BIS Warns of Stablecoin Regulatory Risks The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned this week that stablecoins operate largely outside traditional capital controls and could undermine the effectiveness of monetary policy. The report suggests that global regulatory oversight of stablecoins may continue to tighten.

Macro Update

• On July 23, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended July 18 came in at 187,000, the lowest level since the week of September 24, 2022. The figure was below market expectations of 212,000, while the previous week's reading was revised up from 208,000 to 209,000.
• On July 17, CME FedWatch Tool data showed a 61.3% probability that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike stood at 38.8%.

Looking Ahead

Industry Conferences

• Malaysia Blockchain Week 2026 will take place in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, from July 29 to 30.
• ULTRA Web3 Festival 2026 will take place at The Arch Galeries in Kuala Lumpur from July 30 to 31. Hosted by Ultra Production, the event will cover Web3, traditional finance (TradFi), artificial intelligence (AI), real-world assets (RWAs), and institutional capital.
• Conviction 2026 will take place in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, from August 14 to 15.
• Coinfest Asia 2026 will take place in Bali, Indonesia, from August 20 to 21.

Key Events

• The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on July 29 at 18:00 (UTC).
• The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on July 30 at 11:00 (UTC).
• The U.S. will release initial jobless claims for the week ended July 25 on July 30 at 12:30 (UTC).
• The U.S. will release the June Core PCE Price Index (YoY) on July 30 at 12:30 (UTC).
• FTX will begin its fifth round of creditor repayments on July 31, with approximately $900 million scheduled for distribution.
• Minnesota's Chapter 93 Act will take effect on August 1, allowing state banks and credit unions to provide non-fiduciary virtual asset custody services.
• The Google Chrome Web Store will classify prediction markets as a prohibited category on August 1, banning extensions that facilitate real-money trading on prediction market platforms.

Project Updates

• Sony Bank will launch subscriptions for its U.S. dollar-denominated tokenized securities on July 29.
• Grvt has postponed the TGE of its native token, GRVT, to July 30.
• Bitcoin treasury company Strategy will report its second-quarter 2026 financial results after the U.S. market closes on July 30 (ET). The company will host an earnings webcast at 5:00 p.m. ET the same day.
• Cardano ecosystem lending platform Levvy will cease operations at the end of July.
• SBI Crypto, the mining subsidiary of SBI Group, will shut down its Bitcoin mining pool service on July 31.
• Derivatives exchange PINGU will permanently cease operations on July 31.
• The front-end interface of Sei ecosystem perpetual DEX Oxium will be shut down on August 1. The team stated that users will still be able to access the protocol and withdraw funds directly through smart contracts after the interface is closed.

Token Unlocks

• Humanity (H) will unlock 260 million tokens on July 25, worth approximately $16.11 million, representing 8.6% of its circulating supply.
• Plasma (XPL) will unlock 88.89 million tokens on July 25, worth approximately $7.40 million, representing 3.4% of its circulating supply.
• Falcon Finance (FF) will unlock 102 million tokens on July 29, worth approximately $6.18 million, representing 3.5% of its circulating supply.
• Sui (SUI) will unlock 14.14 million tokens on August 1, worth approximately $10.51 million, representing 0.34% of its circulating supply.
• Ethena (ENA) will unlock 4.06 million tokens on August 2, worth approximately $3.72 million, representing 0.47% of its circulating supply.

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