US Stock Market Report
Hotcoin TradFi Daily Asset Report (October 12, 2026)
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Author kim
U.S. stocks extended their gains last Friday, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all posting weekly gains; however, the small-cap index still declined for the week, while preliminary consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 and one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%. U.S. stocks will trade normally today, while the cash bond market is closed for Columbus Day; Wednesday’s CPI will be an important point for monitoring inflation and interest-rate pressures.
U.S. Stock Market Overview: Weekly Gains, but Small Caps Remain Weak
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Indicator
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October 9 Close
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Daily Change
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Weekly Change
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S&P 500 Index
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7,811.54
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+0.59%
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+1.2%
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Dow Jones Industrial Average
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51,654.95
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+0.83%
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+0.9%
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Nasdaq Composite Index
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27,366.17
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+0.64%
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+0.6%
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Russell 2000 Index
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2,806.98
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+0.46%
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−0.9%
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VIX Volatility Index
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14.84
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−3.70%
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—
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The three major stock indexes rose on Friday, with the S&P 500 approaching its previous record high. However, the Russell 2000 still fell 0.9% for the week, showing that small-cap stocks have not fully kept pace with large-cap indexes. Oil prices and Treasury yields also fluctuated last week, resulting in mixed market sentiment across asset classes.
The VIX fell from 15.41 on October 8 to 14.84, a decline of 0.57 points. The options market’s implied expectations for short-term volatility eased somewhat, but changes in the VIX should not be used alone to determine the trend; small-cap stocks and consumer data still point to divergence within the market.
Hotcoin Watch:Friday’s gains improved short-term sentiment, but the weekly data did not show synchronized strength across all indexes. Today, attention can focus on whether the rebound in large-cap stocks can extend to small caps and more sectors.
Today’s Market Focus: Whether the Rebound Can Continue Depends on Earnings and Inflation Expectations
Friday’s gains came against the backdrop of weak consumer survey data. The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment reading for October was 46.3, down from September’s final reading of 48.1; the current conditions index fell to 44.7, while the expectations index rose to 47.3. Respondents’ assessment of current economic conditions weakened, but their expectations for the future improved slightly.
At the same time, one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, while long-term inflation expectations increased to 3.5%. These are not actual inflation readings, but they will affect the market’s assessment of future price pressures and the interest-rate path. If Wednesday’s CPI shows that price pressures remain strong, yields may continue to be a key variable for stock valuations; if inflation data ease, the market may focus more on whether corporate earnings can meet expectations.
Third-quarter earnings season will also gradually get underway. When analyzing earnings reports, revenue growth, profit margins, cash flow, and management guidance should be considered together; a single quarter’s earnings beat does not automatically indicate that the growth trend has become firmly established.
Hotcoin TradFi Key Asset Volatility: Selected Trading Pairs Post Notable Gains
As of 11:57:36 Beijing time on October 12, IRENB/USDT had a rolling 24-hour gain of 8.67%, while KORUB/USDT fell 3.72%. The following are the trading pairs with the largest absolute gains or losses among the valid sample in this report.
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Spot Trading Pair
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Latest Price (USDT)
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24-Hour Change
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IRENB/USDT
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38.22
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+8.67%
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KORUB/USDT
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17.30
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−3.72%
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AXTIB/USDT
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69.19
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+2.57%
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BMNRB/USDT
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24.74
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+2.52%
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ASTSB/USDT
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51.85
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+2.49%
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This update covers 71 spot trading pairs in active status, categorized as U.S. stocks and quoted in USDT; 70 samples passed the quote-timeliness and numerical checks. This ranking represents only the verifiable spot samples available at the time and does not represent the full-platform ranking of all TradFi products or perpetual contracts. The figures show the platform products’ rolling 24-hour performance and are not equivalent to the underlying stocks’ returns at last Friday’s close.
Hotcoin observation:Most trading pairs in the sample rose, but IRENB’s gain was significantly higher than those of the other samples, indicating that the volatility of individual products may deviate materially from that of the overall index. The snapshot was taken before regular U.S. stock-market trading hours, and changes in underlying prices after the open may lead to new market performance on the platform.
Analyst view: The current rise is still described as moderate
Ross Mayfield｜Baird Investment Strategy Analyst:In his market commentary last Friday, he described market sentiment as shifting back and forth around geopolitical developments and considered the day’s rebound relatively moderate.
Our interpretation:This reminds us to distinguish between rising prices and a recovery in market confidence. The major indexes closed higher on Friday and the VIX fell, showing some improvement in short-term risk appetite; however, lower consumer confidence, rising inflation expectations, and a weekly decline in the Russell 2000 all indicate that the rebound still needs to be validated by broader market participation and corporate earnings.
Today and this week’s event calendar: Watch trading hours and CPI
Today is Columbus Day in the United States. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market are open for regular trading, while the cash bond market is closed. The times below are in Eastern Time (ET) and Beijing Time; Beijing Time is 12 hours ahead of ET.
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Eastern Time (ET)
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Beijing Time
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Event
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Key focus
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October 12, 09:30
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October 12, 21:30
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Open of regular U.S. stock-market trading
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Liquidity and price reactions while the cash bond market is closed
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October 13, 04:30
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October 13, 16:30
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Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks on the economic outlook
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Comments on growth, inflation, and the policy path
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October 13, 10:00
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October 13, 22:00
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U.S. existing-home sales data
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Housing demand and interest-rate sensitivity
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October 14, 08:30
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October 14, 20:30
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U.S. September Consumer Price Index (CPI)
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Changes in headline and core inflation
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October 14, 14:00
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October 15, 02:00
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Federal Reserve Beige Book
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Economic activity, employment, and price information across the districts
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The preliminary consumer confidence reading and inflation expectations were released last Friday and should no longer be treated as pending releases today. Wednesday’s CPI will provide new data on actual prices, while Waller’s speech and the Beige Book will offer additional information on economic conditions from policymakers and at the regional level.
Hotcoin’s Focus for Today: Use Three Sets of Signals to Validate the Rebound
1. Watch the breadth of the advance.Observe whether small-cap stocks and more sectors can keep pace with large-cap indexes to determine whether last Friday’s rebound is broadening.
2. Watch CPI and yields.Consider the inflation reading alongside the bond market’s reaction to distinguish whether price pressures are easing and how the market is adjusting its interest-rate expectations.
3. Watch product performance after the open.This issue’s Hotcoin market snapshot comes before the regular U.S. stock-market open. After the open, focus on changes in the products’ own prices and trading activity, rather than treating the platform’s 24-hour performance directly as the underlying asset’s closing return.
The key market question for October 12 is whether the week-long rebound can withstand the test of market breadth and inflation data. When following different assets through Hotcoin TradFi, we will simultaneously observe indexes, individual products, and price reactions after the events.
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